US OPEN: The U.S. Open has a well-earned reputation as golf’s toughest test, a grueling four days full of narrow fairways, thick rough, and firm, fast greens. Par is your friend, the cut is always well over par, and everyone in the field will face some significant adversity and drop some shots along the way, which is quite different from your run of the mill Tour event with a winning score around 20-under and a champion who might not make two bogeys the whole week. And, frankly, that is what people love about this tournament: they enjoy watching pros get humbled by the game, struggling to make pars like the rest of us and posting scores that look pretty similar to what you see in your Saturday morning blue tee game.
In recent years, however, we haven’t seen the same type of carnage at U.S. Opens as we had seen in years past, with the last six champions all posting 6-under or better for the week and two of them — Wyndham Clark in 2023 and Gary Woodland in 2019 — reaching double-digits under par. Many believe that easing up course setups was a conscious decision on the part of the USGA after complaints from the players following the 2018 edition, when the entire field shot over-par at a Shinnecock Hills setup that some deemed unfair. Is it costing the tournament its identity, though? Are the fans still getting what they want to see out of a U.S. Open?
If your answers to the above questions reflect a belief that the tournament was better when course setups were more difficult, I’ve got some good news for you, my friend: a return to form is in the offing. There are many great U.S. Open venues, but none quite measure up to western Pennsylvania’s Oakmont Country Club, a magnificent, punishing layout that will be hosting this tournament for the tenth time, more than any other course. Oakmont is the type of place that doesn’t need to change its setup much for an event of this nature — it’s perfectly conditioned and impossibly difficult every day of the year, or at least that’s the reputation. A 7,372-yard par-70 that features narrow fairways, lush rough, and some of the fastest, freakiest greens in the world, it’s a course that has hosted two U.S. Opens this century, and one of those, in 2007, was won by Angel Cabrera with a four-round total of 5-over par 285. Even the 2016 edition, when the course was softer and played a bit easier, saw only four players break par and Dustin Johnson win with a 4-under total. The slopes on the greens are so severe that Michael Kim went on social media this week and said that, compared to Oakmont, the greens at Augusta National are “pretty benign” and that breaks on some putts will be so significant that AimPoint, the popular green-reading tool, will be rendered useless. This is the type of place where missing shots in the wrong spots, even if by just a little, will oftentimes force players to accept 20-footers for par. It’s going to be a fun week, in other words.
The market looks just about like you’d expect, with Scottie Scheffler, the world’s top player and a guy who has been on an absolute heater lately, the clear favorite at 4.1, followed by Bryson DeChambeau at 9.0 and Jon Rahm at 15.0. It’s difficult to imagine Scheffler not being in the mix on Sunday, but his putter can go quiet at times, and his price is short enough to scare away all but the true believers. And while I do consider myself a true believer, I’ve decided to swerve the Scheff this week and try my luck elsewhere. Given the run we’re on, hitting on Ryan Fox last week and Scheffler at the PGA a few weeks prior, we’re going to trust our instincts and take our chances with these three:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Xander Schauffele (29.0)- Though he hasn’t yet regained his 2024 form, when he broke through with two major victories and challenged Scottie Scheffler for Player of the Year honors, Schauffele has been sharp lately, with top-25 finishes in 4 of his past 5 starts, including a T8 at the Masters and a T11 at the Truist. And this is his tournament: despite not yet winning one, he’s carved out a reputation as something of a U.S. Open specialist, with his last eight finishes reading 7-10-14-7-5-3-6-5. Oakmont is the type of place that requires consistency, patience, and a tremendous short game, all qualities that Schauffele possesses in spades. He feels like a great value here at nearly 30/1.
Justin Thomas (46.0)- While he may not be as consistent as some other top players, Thomas at his best is better than just about anyone, and he’s been close to his best at times this season, most recently with his victory at the RBC Heritage back in April. He followed that up with a runner-up at the Truist, his third runner-up finish of 2025, and he now ranks 4th in the FedEx Cup standings, his struggles over the past couple of years but a distant memory. I’m sure he won’t truly feel like he’s “back”, however, until he wins another major, and he was speaking very confidently to the media this week about his thoughts on Oakmont and his chances this week. We know that Thomas has never lacked for confidence, but something about the tone of his comments this time struck me as different, like he may know something we don’t. He certainly has all the tools to get the job done this week and his performance so far this year suggests that something big could be around the corner. Thomas at 46.0 might be the best value on the board.
Cameron Young (112.0)- After a horrid start to the year that saw him miss five cuts in his first nine starts, Young has found his form over the past few weeks and is playing winning golf again, finishing 4th at the Canadian Open last week, 7th at the Truist earlier in May, and T25 at the Memorial, where he rallied back impressively after an opening-round 77. His putting has been the biggest difference: despite carving out a reputation as a bomber who can dominate courses from tee to green, Young has actually leaned on the flat stick this year with considerable success, ranking 16th on Tour in strokes gained putting. Now that the other facets of his game have come around as well, he profiles as a dangerous player these next few weeks and someone who certainly has the ball-striking chops to win at Oakmont. He’s an absolute steal at a price like 112.0.
