THE GOOD THING AT CHELTENHAM? IT’S BETDAQ AGAIN: A stunning start to Cheltenham this morning with BETDAQ offers totaling 108% in the opener, and 100 and 101% in the next two races, so paying out what’s paid in, a level playing-field for punters. But the 108% was even more remarkable, since the Total SP returned for the race in 2012 was 134%.
33.0 and 28.0 VALUE BETS FOR DAQMAN: Daqman accordingly raises his stakes to win 30 points per bet, and includes selections at 33.0, 28.0 and 10.5. He naps Ted Veale.
3-1 START FOR HORSES TO FOLLOW: The only redeeming feature for Daqman yesterday was a winner with the first runner of his 21 horses to follow, Le Bec (WON 3-1).
1.00 Cheltenham Winners come from the bottom half of the handicap, and have been below the age of seven for nine years running.
If there’s an exception to this stats rule, it would have to be Lieutenant Miller, the Cesarewitch third but he’s never won a hurdle above class 4 and his Flat rating is surprisingly low.
The next three home in the Cesarewitch were off 102, 100 and 104 yet the Flat handicapper still has the Miller on 93. So how does the rest of this field compare?
The answer is that it’s a weak class 3. Only Dark Energy has won at this level over hurdles. He’s nine now but his yard had a 361-1 double at Cheltenham yesterday.
Despite his seeming top weight, Big Casino might also be an option of the older horses, as he’s very lightly raced and, in fact, has an 8lb claimer aboard, taking him down to around 14th on the card.
However, the handicapper may have overreacted to Big Casino’s win last time (upped 16lb for a Carlisle class 4). Western Warhorse also has a lot to do with 11st 12lb.
Pay The King ‘could be anything’, nicely in for his first handicap. Philip Hobbs (Sausalito Sunrise) has had seven in the first six – two winners – at Cheltenham this week.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Lieutenant Miller is the experienced older horse and should be placed. Sausalito Sunrise is regarded as well in by his trainer in form, and is preferred to Pay The King of the young pretenders. Dark Energy could surprise at a huge price (offers of 33.0 on BETDAQ as I write), with the yard absolutely flying.
1.35 Cheltenham This race, which brought Cue Card to the fore in 2010, still needs some jumping round, despite a decent surface and a slower, four-horse field, particularly with Sea Lord (4 from 4) and The Liquidator (3-4) basing their success so far on right-handed courses.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: No prizes for picking either of these at the odds, so I will speculate on Lac Fontana.
Would prefer it softer but highly regarded, and too big at 6.8 on BETDAQ as the only one with experience of Cheltenham hurdles. He made all in his maiden there a month ago and is another who ‘could be anything.’
2.10 Cheltenham (Arkle Trophy Trial) Paul Nicholls’ four-timer in this included Al Ferof but none were up to Festival standard, so don’t go in on the Arkle ante-post on the strength of today’s race.
In any event, it’s a small field, on all known form a three-horse race but just two if you discard Ted Veale because it’s his first steeplechase. But can you?
The two others, Kempton winner Dodging Bullets and Uttoxeter scorer, Raya Star, have both proved themselves over fences, albeit in minor prep races. However, I remember Ted Veale cruising up the hill to win the County Hurdle.
On breeding, Dodging Bullets is Flat-bred for Flat racing, and has been known to bleed in his races. On hurdles form, he is second to Raya Star (157-154), whose sire, Milan, is the better stallion for jumps purposes.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Choosing between novices is a mugs game, and I’ve been getting it wrong at this Cheltenham meeting so far, but the one who prefers the ground and acts at Cheltenham is Ted Veale.
Tony Martin has puzzled about whether to keep him hurdling but says that he’s jumped so well in schooling, he must take his chance over fences. He won’t surprise me if he wins well.
2.40 Cheltenham No winner of this ever won another race at Cheltenham. Not a stat to please the sponsors of this two-miler.
When Sire De Grugy won a Grade 2 at Sandown in the Spring, he was nine lengths superior to Oiseau de Nuit, who beat Kid Cassidy at Aintree (flat course) but was outpaced by the Kid up the hill at Cheltenham and was 10 lengths behind at the line.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Sire De Grugy, still on the upgrade, has to give Kid Cassidy, an unreliable sort, 10lb here. But, with McCoy on board, the Kid could come good on a course he likes, offered at a massive 6.2 on BETDAQ this morning, when Sire De Grugy was odds on.
3.15 Cheltenham (Greatwood Hurdle) Only one winner in the decade has been older than six and, after Le Bec yesterday, maybe I ought to stick to my horses to follow. I reported in the list:
‘It’s onwards and upwards, said his trainer after Pine Creek won in January. The Imperial Cup fifth has to prove that now, with a 7lb penalty for winning another big hurdle at Ascot earlier this month.
Since that was only the fifth start of his jumps career, and only his 13th race overall, he should be able to take the extra burden in his stride. He’ll try to follow up in the Greatwood.’
But Pine Creek won only a Listed, wheres Cash And Go, Court Minstrel, Flaxen Flare, Kalann, Kashmir Peak, L’Unique and Sametegal all have good form in Graded races.
Of these, dual Aintree winner, L’Unique appears to want a flat track and has drifted like a lonely dog on a raft this morning, over the betting weir to 28.0.
Kalann is another bad drifter this morning, and I’d be happier with Cash And Go on soft ground. Sametegal, placed in both the Triumph and Scottish Champion hurdles, must surely be in the frame here, and set Paul Nicholls a headache about whether to stay with hurdles or go chasing.
He can’t beat Kashmir Peak on Doncaster form but Kashmir has not Peaked when sent to Cheltenham. He tailed off in the Triumph.
On the other hand, Scottish Champion Hurdle winner Court Minstrel, who beat Sametegal at Ayr, and could confirm his superiority because he has more speed, and is already a Cheltenham winner (as is Flaxen Flare).
If Court Minstrel hadn’t run so badly behind Pine Creek on his reappearance he’d be one of the favourites here, not 20.0 but may just have too much weight.
Kashmir Peak’s fit-from-the-Flat stablemate, Calculated Risk (Richard Johnson booked) looms large with an ultra-light weight.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Four and five year olds between them have won 7 of the last 10. Flaxen Flare (10.5) won the Fred Winter at the Festival and Calculated Risk (28.0) is lurking in the handicap with Richard Johnson up. I must have a pound on Pine Creek (8.2).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 7.5pts win SAUSALITO SUNRISE, and 1pt win and place DARK ENERGY, with 2.4pts win (stakes saver) LIEUTENANT MILLER (1.00 Cheltenham)
BET 5pts win LAC FONTANA (1.35 Cheltenham)
BET 10pts win (nap) TED VEALE (2.10 Cheltenham)
BET 5.5pts win KID CASSIDY (2.40 Cheltenham)
BET 4pts win PINE CREEK, 3pts win FLAXEN FLARE, and 1pt win and place CALCULATED RISK (3.15 Cheltenham)
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