BRAVE BET ON SPONSOR’S HORSE AT 10.5: The topweight will need to be Brave in the featured hurdle at Wincanton but 10.5 on BETDAQ is ‘super value’, according to Daqman.
‘MAGNIFICENT’ OFFERS ON BETDAQ: Daqman picks three quality races today for good-priced punting, the one at Wincanton, plus one each at Market Rasen and Kempton. His nap is Tante Sissi, ‘a surprise 2-1’ in a ‘magnificent’ list in the orange.
1.50 Wincanton David Pipe is in devastating form over hurdles and in bumpers, with form figures since Sunday of 211010113, including that Dell’Arca win at Cheltenham with a young horse snook into the bottom of the handicap.
Bygones Sovereign is similarly placed here but, in the trainer’s own words, is ‘not straightforward and a bit quirky,’ while stablemate Decoy is in the handicapper’s grip and has to be claimed off.
A better outsider might be Bathwick Brave (10.5 on BETDAQ this morning), who is saddled for the first time by Johnny Farrelly for a senior director of the race sponsors.
Balzaccio is with a stable in form and goes well fresh but you have to wonder why he’s been off the track 599 days.
Foxcub will have to improve for his runaway win at Fontwell – next race probably came too soon – as he’s up 17lb.
Jetnova has won well on today’s course but that was in 2011, and he didn’t even rate a mention in Alan King’s Racing Post stable tour.
Carrigmorna King ran second at a similar level with 4lb more in the Spring, has had a run back and his form second time up is 3212, so seems sure to be thereabouts. His stable had a fine Open meeting at Cheltenham.
Beachfire tries to step up from novice company but, after his recent brace of seconds, I want to see blinkers on him.
The favourite, Sound Investment, does not appeal. He’s back from an injury during road exercise and is being ‘given a run’ (quote unquote trainer Paul Nicholls) before going chasing.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The 5.6 the field on BETDAQ this morning suggests that this is an open race. Who wants it most? I’d think owner Wayne Clifford, of Bathwick Tyres, wouldn’t you!
Bathwick Brave’s 10.5 is surely value but also seemingly primed for the race is Carrigmorna King (offers of 7.2 as I write).
TODAY’S NAP: Tante Sissi (3.00) was a surprise odds-against, in fact a few coppers short of 2-1 on BETDAQ this morning, and a second surprise will be if this high-class hurdler is beaten first time over fences for Alan King. The offers in the orange added up to a magnificent 102%.
2.05 Market Rasen It just goes to show what 25-grand can pull in! Eight trainers have travelled a round-trip total of 2,676 miles to attack the prizes for this long-distance hurdle, led by the Welsh Wales yards of Tim Vaughan and Peter Bowen, who top and tail the handicap.
Though Al Co (Bowen) bears the form label ‘sometime loses interest’, he has won three of his last eight starts – albeit over fences – and, though hurdles may tend to put him to sleep, the turning, climbing, then freewheeling Rasen track should keep him half awake.
A step up in class at Plumpton cost the good-ground-winning novice Koultas King (Vaughan) a hat-trick and this is even tougher, with rain forecast for the Lincolnshire venue today.
Front-runner Kaysersberg has a winning weights pull with Al Co on their form at Aintree in May but he hasn’t been out in public since.
Course tip must be Greyfriars Drummer, whose Rasen returns are 141 but, again, there’s a long gap on the CV, not seen since August 2012, after having ‘broken a knee.’
Free To Dream could be the hunch bet: he raced at Graded level in Ireland, was the moral when fourth at Naas in the Spring, giving lumps of weight to the first three, and his winning form is all right-handed.
Drum Valley has been performing well at this level at Aintree, running on as if today’s step up in trip would suit.
Act of Kalanisi, hasn’t won over hurdles since February, 2011, and his latest start, first run over 3m, had Cheltenham racereaders suggesting that he needs to drop back in trip again.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Kaysersburg and Greyfriars Drummer may need the run, while Al Co is unreliable and Koultas King has to prove himself in this grade.
Thomas Garner takes a vital 5lb off Drum Valley, who ran better at Aintree than did Free To Dream at Cheltenham.
At age five, ‘Drum’ looks an improver, upped to 3m. (Is ‘can they beat him?’ Tommo doing the commentary?)
7.10 Kempton Common Touch may be a vulnerable favourite, up a grade on his CD winner and 13lb higher since he first struck form last month. Tarooq and Clockmaker are seven now, going on eight.
Brownsea Brink is drawn out in the Sunbury car park in stall 10 and this keengoer might not take kindly to being dropped in among the kick-back.
On the other hand, Sir Reginald will appreciate the adjacent gate 9, as a come-from-behind horse. He was all at sea in the mud at Ascot last time out, but ‘won’ the Ayr Silver Cup on the wrong side in stall 2 when the first three home came from 26, 20 and 27.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The 8.6 Sir Reginald on BETDAQ this morning is enormous for a hold-up horse who has raced in better class than these and could be well suited to this 7f.
DAQMAN’S BETS (singles to win 20 points)
BET 3pts win CARRIGMORNA KING and 2pts win BATHWICK BRAVE (1.50 Wincanton)
BET 5pts win DRUM VALLEY (2.05 Market Rasen)
BET 10pts win (nap) TANTE SISSI (3.00 Wincanton)
BET 2.8pts win SIR REGINALD (7.10 Kempton)
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