19 BANKERS UP OUT OF 23 AND HERE’S ANOTHER ONE: Daqman made it 19 bankers out of 23 this year – for 141 points profit – when Milan Bound (WON 1-2) landed the odds. He was 1.74 on BETDAQ when selected at morning offers. There is a similar banker again today.
MORE BETDAQ VALUE ON THE DAY: Daqman’s other winner yesterday (overall profit 12.50) was also value on Betdaq: Easter Day (WON 5-4 from 3.65 at the time Daqman wrote his column (see Archive).
OUTSIDER OF THE DAY AT 25-1: As ever, Daqman’s targets are a varied mix of short shots and long shots, and today he introduces a regular Outsider Of The Day bet (26.0 on BETDAQ this morning), which has double stakes the place.
12.30 Newbury The winner of this is likely to go places. Alan King, who has won it twice and scored with Smad Place first time over hurdles, saddles another debutant, Chocala.
Since Chocala won over 1m 6f and 2m on the Flat, you would expect him to be a staying hurdler but he is related to Overturn, the Chester Cup winner who could take a 2m hurdle apart with his front-running style. Triumph Hurdle hope.
Another debutant, the grey Dawalan, is a half-brother to Arc hero Dalakhani and Daylami, the Ascot King George winner. He has been gelded already.
Another grey, Activial, related to a cross-country chaser, seems certain to want further than this minimum hurdles trip. Baradari is also well related and Calipto has the advantage of having already raced over hurdles (second 2m 2f) at Auteuil.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Seemingly, a cracking contest, punter-friendly on BETDAQ this morning (107% in the orange at the time of writing) in a market which could tell you the result in the run-up to the race.
1.0 Newbury (105% this morning) Last year’s winning combination goes for a repeat with Wings Of Smoke off 5lb higher but better in with the second that day, the long-time bridesmaid Ballywatt.
Highway Code is another ‘professional place horse’ who prefers others to win his races. Speed Master is two years without a win, though this better ground should see him improve on his recent comeback flop.
Wessex King will have been ‘got up’ for this first run back, and the novices Definite Dream (second has won since) and Majorica King (fell latest) have both won over fences
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Definite Dream looks sure to go close but I will take a chance that Massena, getting a stone from everything, can translate his impressive Wincanton hurdles win to fences (6.2 on BETDAQ this morning)
1.30 Newbury The 110% BETDAQ orange this morning compares with the 131% Total SP for the race last year. Philip Hobbs farms it.
His record over the last six seasons is 1143-1 from winners at 5-4 favourite right out to 33-1, carrying from 10st 10lb to 11st 12lb.
He has put blinkers first time on Arthurian Legend who, like stablemate Pateese, returns to the ‘sticks’ after only fair form over fences. At 26.0 and 48.0 respectively this morning, I will take Richard Johnson’s selected, Arthurian Legend, as my outsider of the day.
Watch out for a gamble in the race – four of the last five winners were favourite – with Western Warhorse (5.6 on BETDAQ as I write) most likely candidate for a punt.
On what we know of them, Chiberta King and Minella For Steak need rain but Twelve Roses (6.8) has his ground and the form of his Wetherby second has been doubly franked.
Free To Dream (9.8) is not out of it, despite top weight. He’s 8lb well in before his full punishment for scoring so easily at Market Rasen comes into play, and he is dropped in class here (that’s why he’s on top of this handicap). Could be a cracking chaser, by the way.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Young horses, aged five and six, are six from eight in this, strongly represented here by Free To Dream, Twelve Roses and my selection, Western Warhorse (the Pipes are in such terrific form), but I shall have a bit of that 25-1 Arthurian Legend.
2.05 Newbury (Berkshire Novices’ Chase) A kingmaker race. The first winner, Katarino (2001), went on to land back-to-back Fox Hunters at Aintree; Jair Du Cochet (2002) followed up in the Feltham on Boxing Day; and the Pipe pair Puntal (2003, won the Sandown Gold Cup the following year) and Vodka Bleu (2004) were also horses for the future.
But then came the first of the real big-hitters: Denman (2006) would be followed by Bobs Worth (2011) as the race produced two Hennessy and Gold Cup winners in six years.
Last season’s scorer, Dynaste, the Pipes’ third winner in the decade, suggested at Haydock at the weekend – when he split Cue Card and Silviniaco Conti – that the race has turned up ‘gold’ material yet again.
They’ve gone odds on Paul Nicholls’ (current number-one) RSA hope, Wonderful Charm, yet another who has gone through the corrective-breathing surgery – twice – that has turned many Ditcheat nearly horses into dogs of war.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Wonderful Charm won a Wincanton race which has tested several Nicholls’ stars. Welsh Champion Hurdle third, Tanerko Emery, and Tony McCoy on The Romford Pete should be a strong Charm offensive but, with 103% in the orange, the 1.78 looks banker material.
2.40 Newbury This is won year after year (10 out of 10) from a narrow weights parameter: 10st 11lb to 11st 4lb, yet it has varied enormously in quality with winners rated from 125 to 145.
Ackertac has his ground but was easy to back this morning, and one of the Nicholls’ pair, Grandioso, drifted right over the betting weir to 16.5.
In theory, Niceonefrankie, upped 11lb for his recent Ascot success, is well in, carrying only a nominal 6lb extra until the full penalty comes into force.
But ‘Frankie’ beat a novice and two penalized horses that day and, for me, still has to fully shake off his ‘bridesmaid’ tag, with form figures of 3322302 after his previous win over today’s course off 124 (now on 140).
Cantlow has McCoy up but has to improve considerably on a poor reappearance run (Easter Meteor ran badly in the same race). Cedre Bleu has to be respected but was easy to back (7.6) for a Ditcheat horse this morning, and this is not his target race.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s a race in which they all have something to prove, or are seemingly prepping for some other future target.
The one I like is Theatrical Star (7.4 on BETDAQ this morning), running over his winning distance for the first time since his solid novice days. The former front-runner should be able to settle with tearaway Hazy Tom in the field.
DAQMAN’S BETS (win stakes are to win 20 points, except the banker)
BET 3.8pts win MASSENA and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) DEFINITE DREAM (1.00 Newbury)
BET 4.2pts win WESTERN WARHORSE, and 0.8pts win and 1.6pts place (Outsider Of The Day) ARTHURIAN LEGEND (1.30 Newbury)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (maximum-stakes nap) WONDERFUL CHARM (2.05 Newbury)
BET 3.2pts win THEATRICAL STAR (2.40 Newbury)
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