EUROPA LEAGUE THURSDAY: The Ultra previews the semi-final between NOTTINGHAM FOREST v ASTON VILLA with a recommended BETDAQ bet.
NOTTINGHAM FOREST V ASTON VILLA
8pm The Europa League Semi-Finals arrive on Thursday night on Betdaq Betting Exchange, and we have a cracking all Premier League tie as Nottingham Forest host Aston Villa at the City Ground! This is the first ever all-Midlands clash in UEFA competition history, and the first all English European Semi-Final since Liverpool beat Spurs on away goals in the 1972/73 UEFA Cup. Both clubs are former European Cup winners but you have to go a long way back for that – Forest claimed back-to-back trophies in 1979 and 1980 under the legendary Brian Clough, while Villa lifted the trophy in 1982. For both sets of supporters, this is a once-in-a-generation moment. Villa obviously have more success than Forest, but it is going to be one of those “I was there” moments for both sets of fans – and one of them gets to enjoy the Final too!
Villa will come into the tie as favourites to progress; if you look at the Premier League table there is plenty of distance between them, but look under the hood a little and there really isn’t much between the sides. Aston Villa have an average xG created of 1.47, which puts them ninth in the attacking table for the Premier League – hardly the figure you’d associate with a genuine top four contender and consistent with the ‘xG killer’ tag that has followed Emery’s side all season. Their average xG conceded of 1.44 is equally mid-table. Forest might have been in the relegation battle, but their xG figures are very similar to Villa’s. They have an average xG created of 1.45 and average xG conceded of 1.44 as well. Remarkably similar sides on paper, obviously a big difference in results.
I know we talk about luck in football but this is a classic example – Aston Villa are going to get Champions League football and Nottingham Forest have went through a tonne of managers in a relegation battle. Both have the same performance levels! It’s not a surprise then that we have an open betting heat – with home advantage, Nottingham Forest come into the game as the favourites at 2.66 with Aston Villa 3.0 and the draw is 3.35 at the time of writing. Unai Emery has an unrivalled pedigree in this competition – the Spaniard has won the Europa League four times; he will fully know what decisions to make here – I would expect Villa to be a little cagey here and cash in on home advantage in the second leg. Plus, Forest have been much better at home this season.
Tactically, this is a fascinating contest. I do feel Forest will need to bring a result to Villa Park for the second leg – they will have to push the boat out at some stage in my opinion. However, it’s hard to see past a cagey and tight affair here. Under 2.5 goals 1.83 and that jumps off the page as good value. The sides drew 1-1 when they met here earlier in the season in the Premier; granted we saw a lot of goals at Villa Park when Villa won 3-1. I’m happy to be on Unders here without going too mad on stakes.
The Ultra Says:
Two points win Under 2.5 goals at 1.83 with BETDAQ BETTING EXCHANGE.
You can view all markets here -> https://betdaq.biz/ELNoAs
