CADILLAC: Finally, the PGA Tour is back in South Florida. For over 50 years Doral’s Blue Monster had been one of the featured stops on the Tour’s Florida Swing, but politics got in the way of a good thing back in 2016, and the event, then known as the WGC-Cadillac Championship, was moved to Mexico. Not that there’s anything wrong with the eclectic group of courses that the Tour has used in Mexico over the past decade, but none of them are the Blue Monster, a bear of a golf course that is quite aesthetically pleasing on the television screen due to the bright contrasts in colors and the iconic Miami backdrop. It’s been the site of some tremendous finishes over the years and has a history of producing big-name champions, as tee-to-green brilliance is required to tame the Monster.
Originally constructed in 1962 as a massive resort with four golf courses, Trump National Doral (thus named since 2012, when the property was purchased by the current U.S. president) quickly became known for its championship course, the Blue Monster, a long, Bermuda-covered track with water in play on nearly every hole. When modern technology began to catch up with the course, Gil Hanse did a massive renovation in 2014, lengthening it to over 7,500 yards, narrowing some fairways, and making a few greens more severe in spots. The results were immediate and dramatic, as during the three WGC-Cadillacs that were held at the Blue Monster post-renovation, only one player was able to reach double-digits under par for the week (2016 champ Adam Scott, at 12-under). And since the course is flat and exposed to the elements, the coastal winds can start ripping and really make things challenging. This is a week for the big boy ball-strikers.
Perhaps, then, it’s only appropriate that the Tour’s return to Doral has been made into a $20 million Signature Event, with an elite field that includes 4 of the world’s top 5 players (Rory McIlroy has chosen to skip). Unsurprisingly, World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (4.2) heads BETDAQ’s Win Market as he seeks his first victory since January, and it would seem that the Blue Monster should suit Scheffler’s game perfectly. He’s had uncharacteristic difficulty closing tournaments out this year, however, and others, like last week’s winner Matt Fitzpatrick, come into this week with a bit more momentum. That being said, here’s what I’m thinking:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACKÂ (odds in parenthesis)
Scottie Scheffler (4.2)- While tipping a prohibitive favorite like Scheffler is never particularly fun or interesting in previews like this, if the goal here is to be correct and make the smartest wager possible, I believe Scheffler is the guy this week. I mean, if you could design a course for his style of play — the plodding perfection, the fairways-and-greens brilliance — Doral would be pretty close to what you’re looking for. And despite the fact that Scottie hasn’t won in a while by his standards (err… 3 months), he’s been beating down the door, finishing runner up in his last two starts (Masters, RBC Heritage) while shooting a combined 29-under par in those events. Statistically he’s been as dominant as ever, leading the Tour in total strokes gained, and his putting has been better than advertised, too, as he ranks 2nd in putting average and 5th in putts per round. There are no weaknesses, he’s still the best around, and I have a feeling he’s about to remind everyone of that fact this weekend.
Nicolai Hojgaard (48.0)- Though he’s surely disappointed with his performance in his last two starts, a missed cut at the Masters and a T55 at the RBC Heritage, Hojgaard has played some great golf in recent months, finishing 6th or better three times since February, including a runner-up in Houston the week before the Masters, and I have a hunch that he’ll be back to his contending ways now that he’s got a golf course that suits his game a bit better than the claustrophobic Harbour Town. Hojgaard hits it a mile off the tee, averaging over 317 yards per drive, and has shown the ability to dominate big, modern courses tee-to-green, ranking in the top-16 on Tour in both total strokes gained and strokes gained on approach. He has as good a chance as anyone of taming the Blue Monster, and if the putter cooperates he might just earn the biggest victory of his young career.
Rickie Fowler (100.0)- It’s no secret that Fowler has endured some struggles in recent years, and now, at age 37, many are openly questioning whether the 6-time PGA Tour champion will ever find the winner’s circle again. I truly believe he will, because in Fowler’s case it’s a matter of degrees, a matter of getting right to the edge before falling short, time and again. The ability is still there, as evidenced by his five top-20 finishes in nine starts this season, and though he seems to have lost some of the fearlessness and killer instinct that characterized his style as a young player, he hasn’t lost his nerve, and the putter is still working for him– he ranks 16th on Tour in strokes gained putting. Fowler is one of the relative few in the field who has seen the Blue Monster in competition before, and he’s excelled here, finishing 8th in 2016 and T12 in 2015. He’s coming off his best finish of the young season, an 8th-place showing at the RBC Heritage, and something tells me he’s going to make some noise this week. He’s worth a bet at such an inflated price.
