‘GOLDEN’ VALUE OFFERS IN THE BETDAQ ORANGE: Daqman tilts at two outsiders in the same race, Golden Calf and Ifyouthinkso, at Southwell – at 14.0 and 12.5 this morning – thanks to a value list of offers in the BETDAQ orange. His nap has only losing ‘hoodies’ to beat at Kempton, according to the market.
It was Scotland – and Yorkshire – the brave. With one exception, the big southern stables of Nicholls, Henderson and Pipe got stuffed when raiding at Musselburgh yesterday. Daqman along with them.
But it wasn’t all clever planning by the locals of a ‘hands off our prizes’ nature. A total of 33 runners had previously scored only on a sound surface, good to soft at worst, but the going on the Edinburgh track turned soft to the extent that two of the later races were run 20 seconds above average.
What’s this; Daqman making excuses? No, it’s Daqman warning you not to pay too much attention to the form on a day when stables were fooled into running horses unsuited by the conditions.
It happens every time wet weather suddenly returns, every time there’s a fast-drying day. And only BETDAQ can rescue your despair at burning the midnight oil in vain, when the form will not add up the way you hoped and 2 + 2 = 5.
Musselburgh was punter-friendly yesterday, compared with most tracks. The worst SP Total was 118% but there were 120, 123 and a massive 139% at Kempton.
Most BETDAQ morning markets regularly add up to less than 110% which means that your first position on the race is a value bet and that, if you find a going change, you can feel confident in having another bet, as well as a trade-off, perhaps laying something you backed before conditions changed.
We know the ground is heavy at Southwell today but there is another about-face, from the right-handed Musselburgh to a left-leaning anti-clockwise Nottingham track.
You’ll often see horses jumping out to right or left, the way their head tells them, not the way they should be railing round.
Some left-handers may have been inconvenienced by Musselburgh yesterday. Some winners only on a clockwise track may lose lengths round the left-handers at Southwell.
But, basically, you need to be mindful that the locals run there often and know the course, just as Scottish yards know Musselburgh.
One sample is not an adequate test in any laboratory, but interesting today to check out the performance post race of Quinola Des Obeaux (3.50), a horse with winning form only going right-handed.
Dermatologiste, Epee Celeste, Somerby and Waywood Princess (12.45), Hopatina, Heavenstown, Jaunty Journey (2.50), and Lodgician (3.50) have winning form only when travelling left-handed.
Of course, there are unexposed horses all day, but an animal’s preference, if any seems marked, should be fed into your alghorithm.
It’s generally a dog day afternoon, though four consecutive races are class 4, and there just might be a nugget of solid form from which to extract some gold.
Leaving the novices aside, maybe the 3m hurdle (2.50) is good value for a punt, with the BETDAQ orange adding up to only 106% at time of writing. You know the winner will need bags of stamina; you know any quirks will show you up over such a trip; you know class will out.
Yazdi improved on the last day. That was at Market Rasen (right-handed) but he’s lightly raced and we can’t be sure what preferences he has, if any.
Another improver is Golden Calf, who might have won at Bangor latest but the rider lost his irons. He was still the ‘moral’, giving a stone, beaten 11 lengths.
Both Jaunty Journey and Hopatina have won on heavy and at 3m, and both have winning form only when going left-handed, including a win for Hopatina over CD.
But Hopatina’s hat-trick has cost the mare a rise of 20lb and, strictly on form, she can’t hold Ifyouthinkso, her runner-up at Chepstow in November. Taking senior hurdles only from her CV, Ifyouthinkso is 3322 up to his last run when he was bumped at a crucial stage.
Improvement can be expected from Ifyouthinkso (14.0 on BETDAQ) after a 65-day holiday and from another seven-year-old, Golden Calf (12.5) after a 43-day break, with trainer Peter Bowen travelling a 440-miles round trip from Welsh Wales to see if cheekpieces will improve him. Jamie Moore accepts the ride again.
I’m napping Conversational (4.00 Kempton) at 5.2 on BETDAQ this morning to land the hat-trick, getting 12lb from the Lingfield winner, Cayuga.
A hood first time didn’t work for Dixie’s Dream at Wolver, and neither blinkers nor hood for Legendary in June and November. Another tasty BETFDAQ orange: 108% as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points each)
BET 1.5pts win and place on each GOLDEN CALF and IFYOUTHINKSO (2.50 Southwell)
BET 5pts win (nap) CONVERSATIONAL (4.00 Kempton)
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