BETDAQ’S BETTER BY FAR IN THE BIG RACES: Daqman leads Pricewise 24-8 in their battle of the big races since Daqman made his challenge to the trade-paper tipster on November 23. Since then, betting on BETDAQ would have won you 14 points more than the SP returns on Daqman’s winners. That’s like a free 14-1 winner!
HAT’S OFF FOR MORE NATIONAL POINTERS: There’s another clash between Daqman and Pricewise today in another Grand National guide, this time at Leopardstown, with Daqman taking Daring Article and Pass The Hat to beat the Liverpool trialists.
CHELTENHAM COUNTDOWN: Look out for Daqman’s race-by-race stats analysis of the Cheltenham Festival meeting.
It’s never easy, unless you are a Willie Mullins man. I was counting my cash twice yesterday as Tiqris came to challenge, going like a winner, and as Rebel Rebellion led at the last. The one was brought down, a gamble wasted and a young horse’s record spoiled, the other lost a boxing match up the Newbury run-in.
Meanwhile, the County Carlow money-making factory registered 14 winners in a fortnight – even I can reckon that’s a Mullins winner a day – with a double at Navan.
But my reckoning is wrong, isn’t it: Willie wins more than any trainer on these islands with so few meetings in Ireland. Incredibly, the run of 14 wins has come from only eight days’ sport, usually single meetings, so almost two a day.
And such a sequence is par for the Irish courses from the record-breaking champion handler, who has so many chances at Cheltenham that he’s 1.44 on BETDAQ this morning to be leading trainer.
No wonder his jockey, Ruby Walsh, is 1.66 for top rider. No wonder Ruby said goodbye to Paul Nicholls, who is 5.8 in the BETDAQ orange for Festival glory.
The strength in depth of the Mullins’ Cheltenham squad might be measured by his having made 64 of the 350 entries for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle.
He still has nine in that opening race, including two of the favourites, Vautour and Wicklow Brave, before unleashing such stars as Hurricane Fly, Quevega, Annie Power, Ballycasey and Un de Sceaux, a magic mix of old-timers and young pretenders.
And how else could he measure and monitor them, and choose the right races, if the said Rupert Walsh had been over in England riding for a vanquished champion?
Ruby has had 38 winners at the Festival, and Willie – champion for two of the last three years –22, which is three behind Nicky Henderson and eight behind Nicholls.
It seems a certainty that the gap will close later this month, by how many I will be looking at in my Festival previews. Meanwhile, the man of 1,000 stars has four runners at Leopardstown today:
2.20 Leopardstown Dr Fong is not the greatest sire of a jumper and his son, Shamsikhan, owes some of his position as odds-on favourite this morning to his stable’s pedigree.
The French Flat winner has had his ‘problems’ and has been gelded since a convincing hurdles-debut second for Mullins in September, with the third horse home in the frame since behind both Vautour and Un De Sceaux.
Though nothing else has come out of the race with any credit since, the winner went on to land a Grade-3 hurdle.
And Shamsikhan, a 1m 7f winner on the Flat on very soft ground, was always going to need today’s extra hurdling distance of 2m 4f.
In total contrast to the Mullins operation, Noel Meade, who saddles Zigger Zagger, had to shut down for much of February, only returning yesterday with three runners, one placed, at Navan. We wish him well.
Better bred for jumping is the Oscar five-year-old, Hairy O’Malley, while Liz Doyle, the trainer in form (W Mullins excepted), saddles Thekingofconnemara. Both have been nursed along in bumpers and make their hurdles debuts today.
Most likely danger to the favourite is Emperor Of Exmoor, placed over today’s trip in a solid race on the last day. But I’ll have a ‘Hairy’ 15.5, with Shamsikhan 1.95 for the stakes saver, and a reverse forecast with Ladbrokes.
2.50 Leopardstown (Ballsbridge Hurdle) Midnight Game has his Cheltenham trial in this – he runs in either the Coral Cup or the County Hurdle – and a good performance today will also boost the Festival chances of Un De Sceaux after their one-two in the Red Mills at Gowran.
Today’s race is Thousand Stars’ Cheltenham. The County Hurdle winner, fourth in both the Champion Hurdle and the World Hurdle, is doubtful for the Festival.
Last of five in the Leopardstown Ryanair in December, he is 21lb better than Midnight Game on official ratings, and is clearly favoured by the race conditions today.
Midnight Game, last of a Mullins’ 1-2-3-4 in the Morgiana Hurdle in November and 16 lengths adrift of Un De Sceaux on his last day, must surely go chasing next season.
3.50 Leopardstown A cracking novice chase featuring Graded-race performers Mallowney and Darwins Fox, yet with Moscow Mannon the short-priced favourite, as runaway winner of a seniors’ chase at Naas.
He won that day by 15 lengths, 22 lengths and 22 again, and was capable over hurdles last season of running second to Un De Sceaux.
But he was also placed over hurdles, a respectful 10 lengths or so behind Mallowney at Naas, including the weight concession.
And Mallowney beat Ned Buntline, also at Naas, but in a novice chase six weeks ago after that one had Moscow Mannon more than eight lengths behind at Navan.
Mallowney looks the value on BETDAQ at 3.25 this morning, with the jury out on Moscow Mannon. Was he flattered by the Naas win, or has he improved a ton? Barring accident, this race will tell us.
4.20 Leopardstown (Carrickmines Chase) Colbert Station, Double Seven, Home Farm and Last Time d’Albain are all in the Grand National, while Becauseicouldnb’tsee ,Your Busy and Slew Charm are prepping for Cheltenham.
But it’s really the J P McManus’ Aintree test, since he owns both Colbert Station (trained Ted Walsh and 26.0 on BETDAQ) and Double Seven (with Martin Brassil and 37.0).
Colbert Station, who had had only five chases before unseating at the Chair in last year’s National, has been third in the Troytown since.
Double Seven has won five in a row right up to Listed level hiking his weight 35lb, but all have come on right-handed tracks. His record left-handed over fences, including at leopardstown, is 00PP, though he did win anti-clockwise over hurdles at Tipperary way back.
We saw Night In Milan win his National trial – the Grimthorpe – yesterday but Monbeg Dude and Godsmejudge flopped. Monbeg Dude stayed on but his jumping was so sloppy that I wouldn’t back him to get round at Liverpool.
Despite his 18lb rise in the weights since December, Daring Article is the Carrickmines favourite on BETDAQ this morning. Has twice had Colbert Station behind and is right on top of He’llberembered (9lb higher now than when won this last year) on revised weights after their Leopardstown Chase one-two.
Last year’s Irish National third, Home Farm, is no doubt being trained for that race again, a quirky sort (sometimes reluctant to start) being handled carefully by Arthur Moore.
There’s been only one winner of this with more than 10st 9lb in the saddle – none over 10st 13lb – none over the age of 10.
The Arthur Moore stable, which has Home Farm at the front of the market, has won this race twice since 2008 and may saddle another winner in Pass The Hat, 9.4 on BETDAQ.
They piled on the money over a trip too far at Navan, held up too far off the pace, and again when heavy ground beat him at Limerick.
Daring Article (5.8 this morning) has also been well backed in big handicaps and his Leopardstown Chase run against last year’s winner of this gives him every chance today.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points each)
BET 1.3pts win and place HAIRY O’MALLEY and 2.6pts win (stakes saver) SHAMSIKHAN (2.20 Leopardstown)
BET 8.8pts win (nap) MALLOWNEY (3.50 Leopardstown)
BET 4.1pts win DARING ARTICLE and 2.3pts win PASS THE HAT (4.20 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES’ WILLIE MULLINS’ TREBLE: 2pts Shamsikhan (2.20 Leopardstown) with Thousand Stars (2.50 Leopardstown) and Aminabad (5.20 Leopardstown)
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