ROLL ON AINTREE! 45 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman won three races out of five yesterday for 45 points profit from Ballyvoneen (WON 7-2), Tonvadosa (WON 10-3) and his 20-point banker, Dutiful Son (WON 1-2), which was 2.2, odds against, when nominated from BETDAQ morning offers.
NATIONAL NOW A QUALITY HORSE’S CUP OF TEA: ‘The Grand National is no longer the lightweights slog’, says Daqman. ‘The handicapper helps the quality horses and the mods to the fences give them every chance to show their class, so I’m expecting a high-rated horse to win.’ Here’s his ABC Guide.
BIG-RACE ABC PLUS X AND S FACTORS:
A: Aged 9 to 11 are nine from nine. Of 128 runners outside that range, just one has won in 10 years.
B: Four of the last five winners have carried 11st or more, or were in the ratings range 148-157.
C: Five of the last six winners had performed in Graded races.
D: 9 of last 10 winners had won or been second at 3m 4f plus or in the Newbury Hennessy or Irish National.
E: Eight winners in the decade had already raced over the National fences.
S= Safety (never fallen, or unseated rider); X = stable in form; * = black mark as wearer of blinkers or tongue-tie.
EASY ABC GUIDE TO THE GRAND NATIONAL
ABCDEXS Teaforthree
Given a big chance by the handicapper, with his rating on 153 but his Saturday mark 149, though needs to conserve his energy a bit better this time around.
Third last year, 2lb higher, Nick Scholfield kicked on after two out but found it a long, long road to the Aintree winning post, despite the stamina revealed by his 4m NH Chase win and Welsh Grand National third.
ABCDEX Balthazar King
Rated almost a stone better horse than in the National last year (set early pace off 146, faded second circuit). Four wins in a row, including three cross-countrys, has put his mark up to 159.
Let off with only 150 on Saturday, banks racing has made a man of him and ‘all he wants to do is win,’ say connections. Golden chance now if he can save most of his exuberance for the finish, and if the ground is no worse than good to soft.
ABCDEX* Across The Bay
Amberleigh House and Ballabriggs have followed triple winner Red Rum from Team McCain, the fairytale National stable which first operated from behind a Southport garage.
Across The Bay (14th) led for a long way last year off 2lb higher and has also finished eighth in the Becher Chase. Aids combo of tongue-tie and blinkers (or cheekpieces) very unlikely on the winner. L’Escargot (1975) was the only great National hero to wear the blinds.
ABCEXS Mr Moonshine
Sue Smith bids for back-to-back National winners, not achieved since Ginger McCain (1973-4) and before that Fred Winter (1963-4). Pulled up last year and hard to see him getting involved so high in the handicap, though clearly has a hatful of stats credentials.
ABCEXS Walk On
Top-class runner-up in Power and December gold cups at Cheltenham, then far and away the moral winner of the Topham over the National fences, beaten less than a length giving a stone to subsequent Hennessy hero, Triolo d’Alene. Go close if he stays.
ABCE Colbert Station
The handicapper was impressed with his National effort last year when, starting a well-backed 12-1, he travelled smoothly, only to be caught out by the Chair.
Third in the Troytown at the backend of last year but poor form since and, though Ted Walsh is happy with him, evidence of a small stable’s form has to be taken on trust.
ABCS* Wayward Prince
Prolific novice-chaser, runner-up to Silviniaco Conti in the Charlie Hall Chase in 2012. Second same race last November and tongue-tie a concern.
ABCXS Hunt Ball
Made his mark at 2012 Cheltenham festival but has struggled in mostly Graded races since. Placed at 3m 2f but generally kept to shorter distances.
ABCX Long Run
He’s 22lb lower than when third in the 2012 Gold Cup, having won it a year earlier and third again a year later. Yet he’s still only nine. Handicap blot if he’s up to the task.
Those who thought that he wasn’t big enough to win at Cheltenham should have been made to sit and count his £1,100,000 winnings. Can he, literally, scale even bigger heights on Saturday?
ABCX Quito De La Roque
Brilliant novice but a ‘nearly horse’ since, fifth Punchestown Grand National Trial and only one win since 2011.
ACDEX Pineau De Re
Goes to Liverpool in good form after a narrow defeat over 3m at Cheltenham but, though that was a hurdles race, the handicapper put his chase rating up 3lb for it and he’s now 18lb higher than his runaway Ulster National win of about a year ago.
ACDXS Hawkes Point
Only a head off Mountainous, the pair just holding Tidal Bay in the Welsh National (heavy) with One In a Milan fourth. Different ground now but finished strongly that day and safe jumper.
ACDX Burton Port
Superb novice career, used himself up as a ‘nearly horse’ at the top level – second in the RSA, second in the Hennessy – and modest form after winning the Aintree Bowl a year ago.
Dropped 21lb since fourth in the 2012 Gold Cup but handicapper has tweaked him up 4lb to 145. Now with Jonjo O’Neill and back to some kind of form this month. Like Long Run, a handicap blot if he’s up to the job.
ACDS Mountainous
The Welsh National winner – from Hawkes Point and Tidal Bay – needs the rain to fall in quantity. He has no experience of Aintree but has never fallen or unseated rider.
ACD Monbeg Dude
Beat Teaforthree in the Welsh Grand National and third in the Haydock Grand National Trial – both on heavy ground – but has scored twice on good, including at Cheltenham.
Hit three fences in a row at Chepstow and won’t be able to take such liberties at Liverpool, albeit there are modifications to the National obstacles.
ACEX* The Package
Second third, and fourth at consecutive Cheltenham festivals. Unseated rider in the 2010 National and just one win since 2009. Wears tongue-tie, hardly a badge of confidence over this lung-busting 4.5miles.
ACE The Rainbow Hunter
Great Yorkshire winner unseated rider in last year’s National and pulled up Sandown Gold Cup.
ACEXS Shakalakaboomboom
Only 18 races in his career, but jumps these big fences well, seventh in the Topham and ninth in last year’s National, travelling in the first two for a long way before tiring approaching the last and fading up that long run-in.
ACEX Chance Du Roy
Runner-up in the Topham but topped that as winner of the Becher Chase, again over these fences, in December: better off now with the third, Mr Moonshine, and with Across The Bay (eighth). Question mark over his stamina but clearly loves to jump Liverpool.
ACX Golan Way
Back to form hunter-chasing, and has bags of stamina but looks some way short on class for this.
ADXS* Raz De Maree
Won Munster and Cork Grand Nationals and type to jump these fences but blinkers would be a worry.
ACEXS Rose Of The Moon
Grey improver. Used to wear tongue-tie but had breathing op, showing the benefit with easy win at Wetherby in January. This is very much harder. A sound surface would help.
ACD Alvarado
Won the Murphy it Cheltenham in November on a sound surface. Refused twice and has unusual jumping style.
ACE Last Time d’Albain
Third in Topham behind Triolo d’Alene and Walk On, and previously third to Colbert Station, but seems to want mud.
ACDEXS* Lost Glory
A good-ground horse looking to bounce back to his glory days of 2012. With the right yard to do so but tongue-tie a worry and pulled up last year.
ACX One In A Milan
Fourth to Mountainous and Co in the Welsh Grand National but his success has all come on heavy going.
AC Battle Group
A Spring horse who won the John Smith’s Chase at Aintree last April. High in the weights now.
ACX Prince De Beauchene
Has cost ante-post punters a packet, as favourite two years in a row without getting a run, because of training setbacks.
Willie Mullins is more than hopeful it will be third time lucky but has not scored since 2012 and a long way adrift of Triolo d’Alene and Rocky Creek in the Hennessy at Newbury.
AD* Big Shu
Third to Balthazar King in the cross-country at Cheltenham, which he’d won the year before, following up in the La Touche at Punchestown. Wears tongue-tie.
BCDEXS Triolo D’Alene
Seven-year-old winners of the Hennessy have gone on to take gold at Cheltenham – (Denman 2007) and Bobs Worth (2012) – but have not won a Grand National in recent history.
‘Triolo’ was only six when he scored at Newbury and now tries to emulate Golden Miller, who won the National in 1934, though Bogskar took a wartime version in 1940, also aged seven.
BCDEX Tidal Bay
It’s six years since he won his Arkle at Cheltenham but returned to that level and more by taking the 2012 Sandown Gold Cup and the Lexus.
Nimble enough to win a Grade-2 hurdle in November, he was a gallant third in the Welsh Grand National (heavy). Has 3lb more to carry at Liverpool, though it might have been 5lb but for the leniency of the handicapper. The last 13-year-old winner was in 1923.
BCDXS Rocky Creek
Only eight and, though Party Politics (1992) and Bindaree (2002) won at that age, both had had 14 steeplechase outings. Rocky Creek has had just half that.
On the plus side, he’s a natural jumper and was the ‘moral’ in the Hennessy, giving Triolo d’Alene 4lb but beaten less than three lengths. On Saturday, he receives a pound. Big galloping sort.
BX Double Seven
By the same sire as Mountainous and Big Shu, this Munster National winner is now two stone higher than when winning the (Kilbeggan) Midlands National in July, his 145 rating tweaked to 148 by the Liverpool handicapper.
Still only eight, a chance to try the Aintree fences in plenty of time to strengthen for another year. Needs a sound surface.
CXS Buckers Bridge
Thyestes winner last year, ‘falls apart’ with racing, so must be kept fresh. Qualified for the National with third in the Bobbyjo.
CX Twirling Magnet
Lost his way and resorted to a novice chase to score. In rear United House Gold Cup at Ascot and unseated rider at Cheltenham. Tongue-tie offputting.
CDEX Vesper Bell
Loves Punchestown (42132 there) and touted as a National horse in the making but fell when fancied for the Becher Chase in December and modest form since. Has to bounce back.
CDS Lion Na Bearnai
Irish Grand National winner (good to soft) in 2012 but struggled until back to form on the same track in February, though a long last in the Bobbyjo after.
CXS* Our Father
Talking horse after good novice career but Hennessy gamble misplaced; beaten in Haydock Grand National Trial and at Cheltenham since. Tongue-tie is a worry.
CX Vintage Star
Stablemate of Mr Moonshine, ultra-consistent hurdles and chases until pulled up in last year’s RSA, but still only eight and showed improved form, sixth in Welsh Grand National and second Peter Marsh Chase. Live outsider if fall at Cheltenham hasn’t left a mark.
XS Kruzhlinin
Nice stamp of horse, improved to win Champion Chase at Kelso and not disgraced behind The Rainbow Hunter in the Great Yorkshire. But this is really tough for a seven-year-old and I hope he gets round in one piece.
RESERVES
CD Goonyella
After saddle slipped when strongly fancied for Irish National a year ago, beat Vesper Bell (3m 6f) on heavy at the Punchestown Festival.
But, like that rival, has found it hard going since, fifth when favourite for the Troytown and eighth in Welsh Grand National. Only seven and sure to bounce back in time. The more rain the better.
CDXS Swing Bill
Like Tidal Bay, he’s 13. Unlike Tidal Bay, it’s hard to trust him – just the one win from 14 starts since November 2011 – but he loves these big fences, 10th and 12th in the National, 2nd and 5th in the Becher. Put on your ‘will get round’ list.
DAQMAN’S ANTE-POST BETS
BALTHAZAR KING: 1pt win at 39.0
ROCKY CREEK: 1.1pt win at 28.0, 1pt win 56.0
DAQMAN’S BETS TODAY
BET 6pts win AWARD WINNER (4.40 Newton Abbot)
BET 2.7pts win CASTLE COMBE (4.50 Kempton)
BET 13pts win (nap) CERTAIN FLIGHT (5.10 Newton Abbot)
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