‘DOUBLE WHAMMY’ NAP AND LAY UP: Daqman launched into the Liverpool Grand National meeting with a double whammy in the first big race, the Aintree Bowl, laying the favourite, Dynaste (2nd 13-8), and napping the winner, Silviniaco Conti (WON 9-4).
DAQMAN GOES 5-0 CLEAR OF PRICEWISE: He went 5-0 up since the start of the Flat in his value-betting challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post (and 44-12 overall) after landing the opener with Guitar Pete (WON 13-2). He said it was the ‘race best deal’ in the BETDAQ orange at 8.0.
FOUR WINS FOR 38 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman then reeled off four consecutive winning bets for a profit on Aintree Day 1 of 38 points:
WON 13-2 GUITAR PETE (from 8.0 on BETDAQ, Anniversary Hurdle)
WON 9-4 SILVINIACO CONTI (Aintree Bowl)
WON 4-9 THE NEW ONE (Aintree Hurdle, doubled with Silviniaco Conti)
WIN lay DYNASTE (2nd 13-8, Aintree Bowl)
GIANT OF A BETDAQ DOUBLE-BONUS BET IN THE SEFTON HURDLE
Daqman today priced up Kauto Stone at 11.0, Tahiti Pearl at 16.0 (both 3.40 Aintree) and Giantofaman at 7.0 (in the 4.15). Stakes to win 30 points at those offers would be 3 points, 2 points and five points. This morning he found 35.0 Kauto Stone, 28.0 Tahiti Pearl and 13.5 Giantofaman but keeps his original stakes for a double bonus. Now read on.
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2.00 Aintree In the last two years this has gone to Darlan and My Tent Or Yours, both second in the Supreme Novice Hurdle at Cheltenham for Nicky Henderson. Josses Hill would make it a hat-trick.
Sgt Reckless, fourth at Cheltenham, getting behind but storming up the hill, has Tony McCoy to help now but needs the ground to stay on the good side.
He was beaten by Amore Alato on the soft at the turn of the year, and that one was five lengths behind Irving at Kempton, before Irving ran a stinker (found to be coughing) behind Josses Hill in Vautour’s Supreme. So the form completes a circle.
Art Of Payroll beat a 119-rated (Bishopslough) less than three lengths at Leopardstown, so surely does not merit 142 (I think they were trying to lift him into the County Hurdle), though he coasted clear that day and may improve for the better ground over here.
The handicapper could only see his way to a 6lb rise for Baltimore Rock after his Imperial Cup win so he, too, had to miss the County Hurdle – in which he could have landed a £100,000 bonus – and come here officially a stone behind Josses Hill.
VERDICT: This should not present too many difficulties for Josses Hill, who looks nap value at around 3.0 on BETDAQ, as I write. Even if the handicapper is right to rate Art of Payroll on potential, he has to improve again on top of that.
2.30 Aintree (Mildmay Novices’ Chase) On trip alone, RSA hero O’Faolain’s Boy and Cheltenham-handicap winner Holywell deserve to head the market, since the three other fancied horses have no winning form above 22f.
Don Cossack (fell, brought down Many Clouds) was trying 3m for the first time in the RSA which, in effect, is being rerun today.
Many Clouds had been beaten by O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot in February but giving him weight, so that they came out about ‘the same horse’; in fact, they went to Cheltenham with Many Clouds officially rated a pound higher off 145.
The third horse in that Ascot race, Third Intention, was entitled to a 143 rating, because he was giving weight to the first two.
Third Intention had been 11 lengths off Wonderful Charm last backend before that one gave Oscar Whisky a fright at Cheltenham just before Christmas.
Holywell’s handicap win at Cheltenham followed defeat at Doncaster of Victor Hewgo, earlier second on the same course to shock Arkle winner, Western Warhorse (in first-time hood), with the form taking a knock here yesterday via Uxizandre, who finished in front of Wonderful Charm at Cheltenham.
VERDICT: The Arkle form, which has collateral relevance to this, was quickly let down yesterday and that dents my expectations of Wonderful Charm bouncing back over this extra trip.
The RSA form is open to correction here, too, with Don Cossack and the luckless Many Clouds trying to avenge defeat by O’Faolain’s Boy. Though Don Cossack fell in the RSA, collateral form through the fourth horse, Ballycasey, suggests he would have been third or fourth at best.
I was convinced that Many Clouds would have beaten the O’Faolain’s Boy at Ascot had he not been lured into a duel with Gevrey Chambertin; he was coming back at the winner at the finish. Then came his bad luck at Cheltenham, when he was ignored in the betting.
There’s a limit to the number of permitted excuses but Many Clouds has been ignored again today at 7.2. His Ascot form with O’Faolain’s Boy says that offer is big value. So third time lucky.
3.05 Aintree (Melling Chase) The last two winners of this were doubling up on their Cheltenham Champion Chase triumphs but this year’s is a more modest renewal with Module (Champion 3rd) and Wishfull Thinking (2nd in it in 2012, 5th this year) top rated.
It’s so modest that even a handicapper, Byrne Group Plate winner, Ballynagour, might win it, though it’s never happened in the previous 23 runnings of the race.
A better run from a handicapper today may come from Pepite Rose, who is a massively better horse anti-clockwise, with a 57% win and place record going left-handed.
Toner D’Oudairies is one of the most consistent animals in training, with form figures, still standing, in the last year of 212443111122122 on all sorts of ground.
But he has much the best form going right-handed and I’ll wait for Punchestown. ‘Toner’ (holds Rathlin) and Rolling Aces are about ‘the same horse’ on Down Royal running last backend.
The one that beat ‘Toner’ last time, Days Hotel, is a soft-heavy two-miler (form 11113231) but whose figures beyond 16f are 424 and he faces a livelier surface today.
Boston Bob needs a downpour if he is to bounce back and is 10lb adrift of Module in the ratings, with Rajdhani Express’ in front of him, too, showing his class when third to Dynaste at Cheltenham.
VERDICT: Module (6.0 on BETDAQ as I write) finished well in the Champion Chase, as if today’s trip is within his compass, and is just preferred to Radhjani Express.
Otherwise, it will be interesting to see whether, at 15.0 in the orange this morning, Pepite Rose can continue her improvement (up a stone since December) into a place here.
3.40 Aintree (Topham Chase) This used to commemorate former clerk of the course at Aintree, John Hughes. John was a great help to my career, as well as to my drinking capacity, and I shall continue to commemorate him today in the customary manner: Cheers, John!
Fourth behind last year’s one-two, Triolo D’Alene and Walkon, who have a more important date on Saturday, was Dunowen Point, who is typical of an Aintree horse: jumps for fun off the front end.
Your Busy is another one. He’s won only on a sound surface but is well in with the winner, Rebel Rebellion, on their one-two in the Grand Sefton over CD in December (going soft).
The third horse, You Must Know Me, is also better off, but it’s hard to back a maiden over these fences, and his proximity to the others lets their form down.
Standing Ovation’s success has come over further but he travels well in his races, and is now wearing the new badge of victory these days, a hood.
So, too, Bennys Mist, who jumped round in the Becher Chase in November and would take front rank here in a downpour, though he’s high in the handicap. So is Eastlake.
Double Ross has a lot of weight (only one winner of this above 10st 11lb in the decade) and, though he has breaten Cedre Bleu twice, has it all to do at the revised weights.
Cedre Bleu is not straightforward and I prefer his stablemate Kauto Stone, who drops down to this level after a career which has included 15 Grade 1s.
He likes to be up there and, if he takes to the fences, could stay on in the frame. Lost legend looks dangerous for Jonjo O’Neill off a light weight, though this is not one of Jonjo’s races.
VERDICT: I’m choosing from among Bennys Mist, Dunowen Point, Kauto Stone, Standing Ovation, Tahiti Pearl (consistent, good jumper) and Your Busy.
Assuming the ground is still good(ish), I went for the younger horses and avoided the soft-heavy types: 12.0 Standing Ovation, 28.0 Tahiti Pearl and 35.0 Kauto Stone.
4.15 Aintree (Sefton Novices’ Hurdle) I had penciled in Apache Jack who was third in last month’s Albert Bartlett, and is a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, who won this Sefton Hurdle in 2006.
But the Apache’s trainer, Dessie Hughes, prefers to run his improver Giantofaman, a big-value 13.5 offer in the BETDAQ orange, as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each win bet is staked to win 30 points)
BET 14pts win (nap) JOSSES HILL (2.00 Aintree)
BET 4.8pts win MANY CLOUDS (2.30 Aintree)
BET 5pts win MODULE, plus 2pts win and 3pts place PEPITE ROSE (3.05 Aintree)
BET 2.7pts win STANDING OVATION (3.40 Aintree)
DAQMAN’S DOUBLE-BONUS BETS (see panel at top of page)
BET 2pts win and place TAHITI PEARL and 3pts win and place KAUTO STONE (3.40 Aintree)
BET 5pts win GIANTOFAMAN (4.15 Aintree)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 2pts win double JOSSES HILL (2.00 Aintree) and GIANTOFAMAN (4.15 Aintree)
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