IT’S A CLASSIC RACING SUNDAY: It was a rare Saturday, having to report a 2-0 defeat for Daqman in his challenge to Pricewise. Our man’s seconditis included his nap and his Swinton Hurdle gamble (Barizan 2nd 6-1 from 11.5 on BETDAQ), which led until the line. Today is a double day of Classics and their trials.
* 1,000 AND 2,000 GUINEAS IN FRANCE: With the score now Daqman 29, Pricewise 9 on the Flat (68-21 overall), the match is on again in the French 1,000 and 2,000 Guineas at Longchamp.
* DERBY TRIAL IN IRELAND: The Prix Hocquart earlier at Longchamp and the Leopardstown 1,000 Guineas and Derby trials could throw up more stars.
1.30 Longchamp (Prix Hocquart) The stats will tell you that 27 winners of this have gone on to take the French Derby but none since Bering in 1986.
The 24 times French champion trainer, Andre Fabre, dominates of course – seven winners – and Aidan O’Brien has won it just the once (Anton Chekhov, 2007).
He plays the Galileo colt, Adelaide, today, while Fabre is double-handed with a Montjeu (Gallante) and a New Approach (Elliptique).
It’s a small pack, so some advantage to Fabre, tactically, on a clear day in Paris but with the ground already soft.
Ryan Moore rides Adelaide and later on Wonderfully for O’Brien in the French 1,000, while Joseph O’Brien stays home for the Leopardstown trials.
2.08 Longchamp (Poule d’Essai Des Pouliches) Criquette ‘Treve’ Head, winning trainer of this French 1,000 Guineas seven times, is missing from the line-up this year. So, too, John Gosden the winningmost English handler.
What use is that to you? It is important to get a feel for the second-season strength in depth of each yard. Gosden is spraying colts around every trial, getting their measure, plotting Ascot, Epsom and The Curragh, but clearly has no fund of fillies for the year.
As for Ballydoyle, while its colts have been capturing Derby trials, the fillies have already been vanquished in their prime task by Andre Fabre in the Newmarket 1,000 (Miss France), and Wonderfully – attempting O’Brien’s second French 1,000 (after Rose Gypsy 2001) – would not normally be near the top of the pack.
In any case, her chance seems virtually extinguished by her draw in gate 14. O’Brien already knows the frustration: he saddled Up second from the same stall when the winner was in 7, part of a five-year sequence of first past the post from 5, 3, 6, 7, 5.
So, seemingly, the top cross-Channel raider this year is J Wonder. But, though she won the Fred Darling trial at Newbury a month ago, she was only nursery level as a two-year-old, beaten out of the frame in her juvenile trial, the Lowther.
She did beat the Rockfel winner at Newbury but the third filly home, Joyeuse, was subsequently 11th when unfancied for the English 1,000, won by Miss France. Compare with Xcellence, who won the Prix Imprudence trial, with Miss France only sixth.
Al Thakhira, second to J Wonder at Newbury, is next door in 13 and J Wonder, herself, may be no better off, drawn in the one stall. The rails trap for her – and Indonesienne (in 2) – will need a tricky manoeuvre but that’s far preferable to a stall out wide in the bois.
Less Talk In Paris (in 8) and Straight Thinking (5), first and second in two Group 3s, separated by the winter months, renew rivalry in the more favoured single figures.
Bawina is a bit further out (in 9), but Veda – not grown much over the winter – is another filly in the bois (in 15). One thing’s for certain: it will be the usual bruising, barging battle round the Longchamp bends and into the short straight.
VERDICT: The Prix de la Grotte 1-2-3 of Lesstalk In Paris, Straight Thinking and Indonnesiene could be revised any which way on this reprise, since that trial was run at an escargot’s pace, with ‘Lesstalk’ getting her own way in front.
As Marcel Boussac winner, Indonesienne (9.4 on BETDAQ this morning) had the best juvenile form of the three (Straight Thinking won only a Group 3) but Boussac winners rarely take the Pouliches and she looks earmarked for the French Oaks.
Her stablemate Bawina has ‘taken off’ this Spring, and the daughter of Dubawi (sire of Newmarket 2,000 winner Night Of Thunder) has Olivier Peslier up, with Flavien Prat keeping the ride on Indonesienne.
Xcellence is better drawn in stall 7 but needs the ground to dry out.
The best outsider may be 33.0 BETDAQ offer this morning, Queen Catrine (stall 4), third to Indonesienne and Lesstalk In Paris in the Boussac after a slow start.
Only fifth in the Nell Gwyn on her reappearance but the object of that race was to get her out of the stalls (she pinged them and had a good blow-out from the front).
Bawina (7.6 this morning on BETDAQ) and Indonesienne (8.0) make a formidable Team Wertheimer duo, both drawn in single figures and, if I dutch them, I can still have my bit of silver on Queen Catrine, since she is such a massive price.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Bawina 1, Indonesienne 2, Queen Catrine 3
2.45 Longchamp (Poule d’Essai Des Poulains) The colts’ Guineas is another raw deal for Ballydoyle, with Giovanni Boldini in stall 13. Only Lope De La Vega has won from a double-figure draw in 17 years. Odds are statements of probability and, on that basis, you need 16-1 any horse double-figure drawn.
Jamie Spencer, who rides Queen Catrine in the Pouliches, also has a live Poulains outsider here in Lat Hawill (stall 9), a big beast who would have needed the run behind the Newmarket 2,000 one-two, Kingman and Night Of Thunder, when they met in the Greenham.
But he is related to middle and long distance animals and may not have the speed for the Longchamp finish.
John Gosden’s Kingman stable ran Muwaary to win at the Greenham meeting but it’s a bit of a surprise to see him here, since the trainer earmarked him for the Britannia Handicap after the race.
A lot could have happened in the intervening month but the benchmark here, Breeders Cup runner-up Giovanni Boldini, is officially 20lb in front of him. Muwaary, Lat Hawill, Zakhar Star and Andrew Balding’s End Of Line have raced only twice.
The Grand Criterium winner, Karakontie, finished well clear of the Andre Fabre Galileo colt, Galiway in the Fontainebleau trial over today’s CD in April.
Karakontie and Fabre’s original number-one here, Decathlete, fought a close contest over 7f (good) here last backend after Decathlete had beaten Kiram easily on the soft at Deauville.
Kiram went on to land a hat-trick and just failed to catch the leader in a convincing (time was good) test for the Prix Djebel, the foremost French trial at Maisons last month.
VERDICT: Karakontie has the ‘coffin box’ stall 1 and will require a skilful ride from Stephane Pasquier but at least he’s not out in the bois with Ryan Moore (Giovanni Boldin) and Christophe Soumillon (Kiram).
With Decathlete withdrawn, Andre Fabre relies on Galiway. Galileo’s previous matings with a Danehill mare include Frankel and Intello, but Galiway – second only in the Horris Hill (7f) at Newbury as a juvenile – takes a lot of getting into gear.
He looks more of a French Derby colt in the hoofprints of Intello but that one was beaten only a neck and a head, running on, in this Poulains, and I can see Galiway playing a similar role.
DAQMAN’S 1-2-3: Karakontie 1, Galiway 2, Kiram 3.
3.25 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) Dermot Weld is 131010 in this and Aidan O’Brien 1120001, sharing the spoils in six of the last nine seasons.
Same old story of the last few days, how much rain will there be and will it get into the ground? O’Brien’s Palace is said to prefer it on top. Weld’s Afternoon Sunlight, the more experience filly, to enjoy some cut.
John Oxx was going to keep Stars So Bright (no prizes for guessing the stallion) to a minor race at Gowran to follow up her debut win but she’s improving rapidly. Again, she doesn’t want much more rain.
Waltzing Matilda is another once-raced, well-bred sort with scope, and the Mastercraftsman filly is better than the bare form. She suffered a minor injury last year, which held her up.
VERDICT: The Ballydoyle fillies, of which Palace was said to be the best though unraced last season, have flopped in the trials, and in the Newmarket 1,000 Guineas finished 14th and 17th of 18.
Sea The Stars is having a good run with his fillies Anipa and Taghrooda but, at the offers, I can choose only one of his pair here, Stars So Bright and Afternoon Sunlight, to take on Palace. Stars So Bright (4.6) seems to be impressing them at home.
3.55 Leopardstown (Derby Trial) O’Brien usually puts a good one into this race: 12 times Group winner Yeats and Irish Derby winner Dylan Thomas are among his returns of 1311211121 in the decade.
Jim Bolger and Dermot Weld are the only ones with runners today to have broken the Ballydoyle sequence. They always come on to this from the Ballysax, and Weld won that with Fascinating Rock, beating Bolger’s Answered. Both Authorized colts, they don’t want much more rain.
Authorized’s own sire, Montjeu is responsible for Geoffrey Chaucer was also kept to a sound surface last season, and picked up a penalty for winning the Group 2 Beresford Stakes at The Curragh.
VERDICT: Fascinating Rock edged in front of Geoffrey Chaucer in the BETDAQ market this morning, has the benefit of racing already this season (two out of two including over CD) and is getting a couple of lengths start from Geoffrey Chaucer because of the penalty. But each one is too short for me to take the other on.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET: 3pts win BAWINA, 2.8pts win INDONESIENNE, and 0.6pts win and place QUEEN CATRINE (2.08 Longchamp)
BET: 12pts win (nap) KARAKONTIE and 2pts win (stakes saver) GALIWAY (2.45 Longchamp)
BET 5.5pts win STARS SO BRIGHT (3.25 Leopardstown)
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