FIVE WINNING NAPS OUT OF SEVEN: Daqman has landed five winning naps in the last week, four at Royal Ascot plus yesterday’s best bet, Minley (WON 5-4), at Lingfield. The five were:
KINGMAN (WON 8-11) banker
INTEGRAL (WON 9-4)
LEADING LIGHT (WON 10-11) banker
PIQUE SOUS (WON 11-4)
MINLEY (WON 5-4)
SIX DAYS’ PROFIT OUT OF SEVEN: L’Etacq (WON 5-4), also at Lingfield, gave Daqman his third winning day in a row (six out of seven) for a total of 95 points profit, returned to his declared stakes at BETDAQ offers. He has a bet at each of the four English meetings today.
* TOMORROW: BETDAQ SPECIAL: Look out for form facts and race stats in analysis of four BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park.
* THURSDAY: BIG-RACE ABC: Daqman’s big-race ABC guide to Saturday’s Pitman’s Derby has the stats and facts that top-spotted Australia and Leading Light.
GOOD (BETDAQ) MORNING TO YOU ALL
Price-wise, there are two ways to win on BETDAQ. Once the total percentage in the orange drops below 110%, take an early-mouse position from the morning offers on a horse you think is too big.
Then check out the market later on for closers and drifters. That ‘s the big ‘tell’ (we spot some of them in Market Movers). Better still, keep your Daq up through to the time of the race and make your own movers list. Check out the BETDAQ-value on a daily basis.
For example, on Sunday, Daqman finished ahead by 15.5 points on BETDAQ morning offers taken, each horse backed to win 20 points. The same stakes produced only 9.5 at SP, with Freedom’s Light in to 7-4. Yesterday the profit on BETDAQ offers was 25 points, but just 5.37 at SP.
CATCH MURPHY IN THE WINNING MOOD
Class is not a dirty word in betting. I make no apologies for repeating (and repeating) how lower-class animals are inconsistent and cannot be trusted.
That’s why I have today picked out class 3 and 4 events, not including races restricted to maidens, beginners and amateurs. I’ve got nothing against those horses and riders, per se, but winners in those races are hard to find.
After all, I’m always a beginner myself. So are you. If we don’t tackle every day’s racing with something to learn, then we are the losers.
2.30 Brighton I admit that my learning curve at Brighton is almost a flat-liner. I haven’t backed a winner there since Pinkie tipped me a good thing. And I haven’t cheered on a 10-year-old on the Flat since my daughter’s egg-and-spoon race.
But Hamoody loved Brighton and the firm ground in May and – giving him a chance – the handicapper has him only 2lb higher, even though he followed up at Windsor under Oisin Murphy.
Oisin’s claim puts Hamoody on the right side. As you can see from the rest of the card, trainers are keen to use the boy’s 3lb allowance while they can.
Secret Missile was third to Hamoody in May and should be thereabouts but he was blinkered first time that day; whatever they did for him then, the blinds haven’t done much since.
Secret Milionaire was the ‘moral’ over CD in April, beaten narrowly, giving weight to the winner, but he hasn’t scored on turf since 2011. Hamoody was 6.4 on BETDAQ at the time of writing.
2.45 Beverley This venue used to be a happy hunting ground, because of its enormous draw bias. Then They (those anonymous Big Brother folk with a capital ‘T’) decided to dig and drain, and destroy this part of my regular income.
Mark my words, the drainage men will be deployed at Ascot, as soon as the King George and British Champions’ meetings are done (or in between the two): the massive high-numbers domination on the straight mile will be their target. Time is running out for us to cash in on the bias.
There’s still some edge at Beverley (low numbers in the 4.15) but not in this class-4 race over 1m 2f (almost), although rails leaders have gone clear in the last two years.
Aryal did that over CD just over a year. The grey has struggled this year on different ground and over a longer trip but everything’s right today and the handicapper has obligingly dropped him 7lb in a field mainly composed of older horses: 6.0 on BETDAQ this morning.
7.05 Newton Abbot Tzora has tried Graded and Listed hurdles, a bumper and a class-2 Flat conditions race since winning this handicap hurdle last year.
He’s back in his comfort zone tonight, on similar ground with the same jockey, a little bit higher in the weights but with a track record of 311, still standing.
Red Seventy is hard to win with and was in poor form on the Flat earlier this month, and there are two worries with the the favourite: Despite the prospect of the Tony McCoy boot today, Aalim has only ever won at Catterick and only ever on the soft. Get It On hasn’t won a hurdle since his novice days in 2010.
Laudatory appeals more. He can set a very strong gallop and could easily put this lack-lustre field to the sword on the ground. I dutched Tzora at 7.5 and Laudatory at 9.0; both are backed to win-20 in my bets list.
8.35 Newbury A cracking little contest, seemingly Stoute v Gosden all over again. But William Haggas won it with the top weight last year, a lightly-raced dual winner.
He has My Spirit in an identical situation, never out of cruise control at Carlisle after winning at Nottingham. She was getting a lot of weight from the runner-up at Carlisle but first and second went a long way clear.
Joys Of Spring ran up to one of the Ascot gambles, Abseil, in the Spring and Luca Cumani is in better form now.
Gosden’s New Approach filly, Gay Marriage could set them a target but, by the same sire, Asyad seems sure to go well for Stoutie. Snag with the whole race for betting purposes is that most have tasted only softish ground.
With a total 107% list in the BETDAQ orange this morning, I was able to take 5.6 Asyad and 9.0 Gay Marriage to stop My Spirit at the weights. Doubts about the ground for all suggest that something may step up against the favourite.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points. Divide 20 by the stake and you know what BETDAQ offer was taken this morning).
BET 3.7pts win HAMOODY (2.30 Brighton)
BET 4pts win (nap) ARYAL (2.45 Beverley)
BET 3.1pts win TZORA and 2.5pts win LAUDATORY (7.05 Newton Abbot)
BET 4.3pts win ASYAD and 2.5pts win GAY MARRIAGE (8.35 Newbury)
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