THREE FOR THE PRICE OF ONE: In fact, it costs you nothing, as Daqman first analyses the big race at The Curragh tomorrow in his Irish Derby ABC; then goes through the BETDAQ-sponsored eight-race card at Doncaster; and finally spots the value at the Gosforth Park Cup meeting tonight:
* Irish Derby: Australia v The ‘B’ Team
* Betdaq Doncaster feast: Knavery nap
* Newcastle tonight: 9.8 big-race chance.
TOMORROW: THE TWO DERBYS: Back to the big time tomorrow after Daqman’s defeat of Pricewise 10-6 at Royal Ascot. Don’t miss his BETDAQ bets on the Irish Derby and the Northumberland Plate (Pitman’s Derby).
NOW IT’S AUSTRALIA v THE ‘B’ TEAM
IRISH DERBY ABC Key
A First four in a Classic/Dante Stakes (13/14)
B Trained in Ireland (13/14)
C Rated 115 to 126 (12/14)
X Factor: Stallion stamina index 11.2+ (11/14)
ABCX AUSTRALIA
Looked poised to deliver in the Epsom Derby after a closing third in the Newmarket 2,000 Guineas. And he surely did.
The son of Galileo, out of Ouija Board, reversed Guineas form with Night Of Thunder, beating Kingston Hill, the pair clear. Stable has more than half the field in this rematch Derby on Saturday.
AC KINGSTON HILL
Completed a hat-trick in the Racing Post Trophy last backend and proved his Guineas running all wrong – eighth on firm ground – when he made Australia pull out all the stops at Epsom, despite having to be manoeuvred from a tight rails draw (stall 2).
BX GEOFFREY CHAUCER
The Leopardstown Derby Trial third to Fascinating Rock was a market order for the Epsom Derby after being rumoured to have beaten Australia in a gallop. When the real gallop came at Epsom, he was stone last of 16, losing his action down the hill.
B FASCINATING ROCK
The Leopardstown Derby Trial win was his hat-trick after the Ballysax and a maiden success in March. But he was badly drawn in the Epsom Derby in wide stall 15 and more than 11 lengths behind Australia.
BX KINGFISHER
Some nine lengths and 15 behind Australia in, respectively, the Breeders Cup Juvenile trial at Leopardstown last September and the Epsom Derby earlier this month. In between, he won the Listed-level Dee Stakes on soft ground at Chester.
BX ORCHESTRA
Another one badly drawn (in 14) at Epsom and failed to act downhill. His Chester Vase win from Romsdal says he’s better than his 12th at Epsom, since Romsdal finished third.
B PONFEIGH
A stone and a half behind Australia on official ratings, his back-to-back wins have been over a mile on a sound surface. Should get 1m 2f but the Derby trip is a worry unless it’s tactical.
KNAVERY NAP ON BETDAQ CARD
2.00 Doncaster (Betdaq The Sports Betting Exchange Maiden Fillies; Stakes)
Shahralasal, bringing experience to the table, and bred as a hot sprinter, deserves to be favourite, though the ‘jolly’ has a poor record in this race (1-10). Hollie Point emerged as a threat in this morning’s market.
2.30 Doncaster (Betdaq % On World Cup Correct Scores Novice Stakes)
Precocious on soft ground, Doomah now tries a new trip on a sounder surface but gets weight from Jumeirah Glory, already a winner at the distance. The early-mouse market screamed the grey Hawkesbury, who ran green at Kempton.
3.00 Doncaster (Betdaq £25 No Lose Free Bet Handicap)
A 25lb range in this handicap suggests that it’s best to look for a bit of quality in the top half of the card.
In fact, McCarthy Mor was the only one with a light weight that was shorter than double figures in the betting this morning, but his dropping back in trip is a worry. He hasn’t been starting his races like a sprinter. Front-runner Winter Picnic (41.0 on BETDAQ as I write) looks more likely to benefit from this try at sprinting.
Jive and Disclosure (5.7 this morning) have both finished second over 6f in class 4, but Jive’s was on the soft, getting weight and in a slow time; he looks exposed. Disclosure’s was on fast ground and he, too, drops from class 4.
3.35 Doncaster (Betdaq 3% Commission Handicap)
This class-3 has brought out the top yards with a field of all winners.
Of the Gosden pair, Zerfaal lost the plot last time and, though bigger in the betting, Nonno Giulio may do better first run in UK on a sound surface.
Regiment is fairly much a seasoned handicapper at a lower level and Mooharib blew his handicap mark by winning his third maiden. So it is that the well-regarded Knavery, impressive at Kempton for Roger Varian, looks the likely card to play
4.10 and 4.45 Doncaster (Betdaq £200 Free Bet Games Bonus Maiden Fillies’ Stakes)
Roger Varian again has the market leader, with first-time hooded Muhawalah likely to improve past the exposed Award in Division 1.
But the Award stable’s Oh Star fronts the market in Divison 2, though strongly pressed by Colourful, half-sister to the dam of Frankel.
5.20 Doncaster (Betdaq No Premium Charge Handicap)
Eagle Rock plays the bridesmaid but, with his front-running style, he has the chance to get his own way in a small field, and is down in grade from a good second at York.
Halstatt goes for a hat-trick, belying his age, but he’s unlikely to climb back to class 4 now he’s eight. Handsome Ransom was last of four when he tried this trip before. Innsbruck could improve for it.
5.50 Doncaster (Cash Out On The Betdaq+ App Handicap)
This is anybody’s guess at an improver, with six horses within 2.8 of each other in the BETDAQ orange. But that’s ignoring the strong opinion for Innocent Touch, well clear in the morning market.
A FAIR CHANCE TONIGHT AT 9.8
I’m talking through my pocket. What else is a punter to do. Baraweez’ winning the Seaton Delaval yesterday – followed by Felwah last night – gave me a profit on the day of almost 25 points. Or would have done.
Baraweez lost the feature race in the Newcastle-stewards’ room but, when he gets it back on referral to London, I won’t receive my winnings in retrospect. I’ve seen much worse allowed than the Baraweez bump. Or is this a deliberate new line being drawn by the stewards? (I doubt it; the right hand has seldom known what the left is doing). If so, the Baraweez bump was as historic as the Suarez bite.
7.10 Newcastle Musidora second and third, Lily Rules and Regardez, meet again as ‘Lily’ tries to redeem her Oaks supplement (she finished 9th, Regardez 12th, at Epsom).
Three-year-olds have a middling record in this but, if the ground remains firm, they have it all to do to beat Magic Of Reality, who loves to hear her feet rattle. She’s already Listed placed.
That also applies to a third three-year-old, Pelerin, whom the handicapper thinks has improved 16lb since the beginning of May, and rates higher than the two Oaks losers..
Pelerin was a strong order in the BETDAQ orange this morning, with Magic Of Reality too big at 6.4 if, as forecast, she gets her conditions. An obvious first position on the race.
7.45 Newcastle (Gosforth Park Cup) After five losing runs since taking this race last year, David Barron’s Magical Macey has been dropped back to his winning mark, and been allotted the exact same stall (tautology rules, ok).
Two snags: he’s won his senior races with cut in the ground, and – though Philip Makin has won on him – his regular jockey, Graham Gibbons, apparently prefers his stablemate, Robot Boy, a horse in winning form (but that, too, was on soft).
More than half the field has never won at this class-2 level, including the Barrons pair, and success for an older horse (over the age of six) is rare.
David Nicholls’ current good fortune has been a long time coming and Barnet Fair should be just about ready now: he’s won in June or July for the last three years (all on firm); well drawn and 9.8 on BETDAQ as I write.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 4.2pts win DISCLOSURE, and 0.5pts win and place WINTER PICNIC (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win (nap) KNAVERY (3.35 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win EAGLE ROCK (5.20 Doncaster)
BET 3.7pts win MAGIC OF REALITY and 2.6pts win (stakes saver) PELERIN (7.10 Newcastle)
BET 2.2pts win BARNET FAIR (7.45 Newcastle)
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