DAQMAN GOT IT WRONG: An out-of-form Daqman lowers his sights to three bets today, chosen to fit his staking plan so that, if just one of them wins, he at least gets his money back.
THE FRENCH GOT IT WRONG: Todayâs Grand Prix is not the race the French hoped for when they raised its trip to attack the King George. French Derby first and third meet again.
BALLYDOYLE GOT IT WRONG: Aidan OâBrien dropped Darwin back to sprints but he has twice been well beaten by yesterdayâs July Cup hero, Slade Power. Lowered to a Listed race today.
A PINT OF PLAIN ON MY BIRTHDAY
Itâs a fine way to celebrate. I look like an ordinary tipster today, justifying a losing run, my worst in eight years. Yes, itâs Daqmanâs birthday on this page and no oneâs popping the corks. Just a pint of plain.
Plain truth is â and every punter must face his losses, not chase them â I canât tip a taxi driver at the moment and, granted the changeable weather and odd results since Royal Ascot, I shall blame myself, whether or not I am to blame.
Pricewise also drew a blank on Saturday (and I still lead 49-17 this Flat season), with both bankers and the bullâs-eye bets still well above 100 points in profit.
My mistake was to try to buy money from two bankers â I canât believe (who can?) that both lost – and from blanket cover of win-50 bets yesterday, expecting one winner at least, knowing it would pay for all and boost my bullâs-eye tally. Amateurish.
It didnât happen (and punters expect miracles). But I canât change winning ways, just because I get a bad run. It should be built into your betting. If you canât afford to lose, you can never afford to win.
When I was what they call a pro punter, I worked for the overall. I forget my starting point, so I donât know what you need today to make it pay. But I know a man who does.
He makes just short of 25% profit on outlay â massive compared with any other âbusinessâ â so, if he wants a decent living of, say ÂŁ30,000 (excluding expenses, which he reckons at ÂŁ5,000), he needs to invest ÂŁ140,000 a year. Itâs a hard life.
But, you and I at a lower level have something going for us on BETDAQ that most punters in the past have never had, and most in the present ignore. You can trade. Thatâs where my jobâs made easy.
For instance, my mea culpa would have been different had The Hooded Claw won on Friday, backed in from 18.0 on BETDAQ to 8-1 SP (win and place, finished fourth and, wouldnât you just know it, the field was reduced by non-runners to 15).
But the whole point of this column, and of betting with BETDAQ, is that it shouldnât have been a loser for you (maybe even a winner), if youâd followed it through the day (maybe even the race) and traded out, a chance made easy, and exclusively, with exchange betting.
* And the pint of plain? âWhen thingâs go wrong and will not come right, though you do the best you can; when moneyâs tight and hard to get, and your horse has also ran, a pint of plain is your only man.â (If you havenât read Flann OâBrien, you havenât lived; Myles better than most).
GIBRALTAR THE ROCK IN GRAND PRIX
I wouldnât back it for the Arc. I mean todayâs winner of the Grand Prix de Paris (6.20 Longchamp). In fact, the last two winners have not won another race, not a one.
When the French stepped up the Grand Prix trip in 2005, running it over the same distance and in the same month as the King George, they thought to gazump Ascot and create a grand stepping-stone to the Arc. All in one fell swoop.
The outcome makes âfellâ a more appropriate word in this context than âswoop. It all started on the right hoof with Rail Link (2006) becoming the third horse since Saumarez in 1990 to win the Grand Prix and the Arc in the same year.
But the seven seasons since then have produced nowt of note (unless you are a Cavalryman fan), and the French Derby â reduced to 1m 2f at the same time as the Grand Prix boost â has not resurrected its prowess since the days of Peintre Celebre (1997).
Today is interesting because the French Derby winner, The Grey Gatsby, runs in the Grand Prix, and he also represents the English Classic generation as winner of the Dante Stakes at York.
But the five Grand Prix winners since the 2005 change to have run in the French Derby were all out of the frame at Chantilly.
Mastercraftsman, sire of Kingston Hill as well as The Grey Gatsby, is having a good year as a sire, particularly when the ground is soft, but it may be significant that, of 14 starts at 1m 4f or further, his progeny has produced only one win.
Free Port Lux, well in rear at Chantilly, previously beat the subsequent King Edward V11 and Belmont Derby runner-up, Adelaide.
And it was the Greffulhe winner, Prince Gibraltar who did best in the French Derby, unlucky for two reasons: the ground had dried out and he met trouble in running (he had âa horrible tripâ says the Racing Post form).
On todayâs very soft surface, off which Prince Of Gibraltar quickened well when he easily beat Golden Guepard at Saint-cloud in May, The Grey Gatsbyâs chance of getting the mile and a half is greatly reduced. Prince for a day.
IS THIS THE DARWIN SWAN SONG?
Itâs level peggings. Three and four year olds have three wins each in the last seven renewals of the Listed (3.40) at Fairyhouse today. And it looks very much a straight fight between them here.
Darwin v. Sailors Swan will answer the question: did Aidan OâBrien do the right thing, bringing Darwin down to sprinting?
Having won twice over a mile, and beaten Gordon Lord Byron over 7f, Darwin was pitted against Slade Power at The Curragh (soft) and at Ascot (firm). Result: loser, loser.
But theyâre all losers behind yesterdayâs July Cup winner and Darwin has his ground today. Sailors Swan gets 11lb in age allowance to help.
Due Diligence who beat him at Naas six weeks back was fancied to stop Slade Power yesterday but was pulled out because of the soft surface. Slade Power, himself, came from obscurity to win this Belgrave Stakes two years ago.
I donât like the way Darwin flashes his tail under pressure and Iâll take the three-year-old, assuming that the watering has done what lack of rain hasnât. Sailors Swan doesnât like âstingâ but will be ok on good to firm or better.
DAQMANâS BETS (each bet is staked to win 20 points)
BET 3.5pts win GREEK CANYON (3.05 Fairyhouse)
BET 8pts win SAILORS SWAN (3.40 Fairyhouse)
BET 11pts win (nap) PRINCE OF GIBRALTAR (6.20 Longchamp)
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