BANKER DOUBLE: 21 OUT OF 28: Daqman’s maximum-stakes Goodwood bankers both obliged at the festival yesterday to take his score to 21 from the last 28 (75%). They were Highland Reel (WON 10-11) and Kingman (WON 2-5).
NOW IT’S DAQMAN 52, PRICEWISE 19: The place part of his Galway Plate bet on Balnaslow (3rd 9-1 from 18.5 on BETDAQ) increased Daqman’s lead over Pricewise in races selected not by him but by the Racing Post column. It’s now 52-19.
TWO MORE MAXIMUMS: Daqman has two more maximum-stakes banker bets at Goodwood today and a trio of Bull’s-Eye Bets for the Galway Hurdle at 17.0, 14.0 and 12.5.
BANKER 1: IVA BET TO CATCH CAT
2.05 Goodwood The low-drawn Related and Magique got away from them in the 7-9f heats round the bottom-of-the-hill bend yesterday, and they have fresh ground to race on up the inner this afternoon.
Arable (Charles Hills) or Examiner (Willie Haggas) could try to slip them and Mark Johnston has two drawn inside, Lyn Valley and Rainbow Rock.
Haggas has had a stunning nine winners from his last 16 starters, so I shall take Examiner (huge at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning) and pick Rainbow Rock (7.0) from among the Johnston trio, with claimer Cam Hardie taking his weight down to his long-handicap mark.
Local runner, Astronereus (St Leger entry so might not have the pace for this) and top-weight Roseburg ideally need some cut in the ground but lightly-raced Madeed ‘could be anything’ upped to this trip after finishing close up in the Britannia.
Kieren Fallon, who may come late up the wide outside, won on him here at Goodwood over a mile, but I’ll stick to the rail while the strip is fresh.
2.35 Goodwood (Richmond Stakes) We’ve been paying for our bets with short-odds bankers this week, and Ivawood is another one after his easy July Stakes defeat of Coventry third, Jungle Cat, who is the pick of his rivals again today.
BANKER 2: ESTIMATE FOR THE CUP
Goodwood Cup 1-2-3: Estimate 1 Angel Gabrial 2 Brown Panther 3
3.10 Goodwood Cup Sir Michael Stoute has won this with Ascot Gold Cup losers (Distinction 2nd, and Allegretto 9th) but his Estimate won the Ascot gold last year and was run out of it for the double only by the stamina of Leading Light in June.
Brown Panther was nearly five lengths back that day, and he needs the easy side of good to be seen at his best, whereas Estimate loves a sound surface.
Cavalryman, Group 3 at best and eight years old now, is preferred to Ahzeemah by Kieren Fallon, while Forgotten Voice, a winner at this meeting (1m 4f) last season, will relish firm going but is unlikely to have that final zip at age nine.
Runner-up in the Chester Cup and winner of the Pitman’s Derby, Angel Gabrial is not out of it, with his strong preference for right-handed tracks.
3.45 Goodwood (Lillie Langtry Stakes) Missunited, 40-1 third in the Ascot Gold Cup, ran them ragged for two miles and did the same trick when scoring over today’s trip at Leopardstown earlier.
There are two other front-runners in the race, Baroness Daniela and Nymphea but it’s a fair surmise that their lungs will burst first.
Talent, runner-up to Leading Light in the 2013 St Leger, is the obvious choice to haul them in, but her Group form is all with cut in the ground.
Waila is 9lb off Talent’s rating and hasn’t won since a first-time hood, more than a year ago. Duncan’s half-sister, Stella Bellisima, could be staying on through a tiring field, though she has raced only once and her day will probably come later in the year.
PUT 17.0 PLINTH ON A PEDESTAL
Galway Hurdle 1-2-3: Plinth 1, Pearl Castle 2, Parlour Games 3
4.55 Galway Hurdle Shane Shortall could follow up his Galway Plate romp – what a double that would be! – with his claim lowering the bar for top-weight Purple Bay, after the handicapper vaulted him an exact stone for slamming a field of winners in Market Rasen’s Summer Hurdle.
But, on a line through Max Ward, Purple Bay is behind his two stablemates, Parlour Games and Dubai Prince, and 24 of the last 26 winners of this carried 10st 12lb or less.
That may be the ceiling again today after the rain (more forecast), and I shall combine that trend with another: 20 of the 26 were below the age of seven.
Right up there off that 10st 12lb, lightly raced, and with Barry Geraghty booked, is that Parlour Games of Ferguson’s, with both horse and trainer in form but this is a quirky animal we can’t be sure of, tongue-tie exchanged for a hood: the 19.5 on BETDAQ this morning is needed.
Down the bottom of this long handicap to the second and fifth in the Grade-1 Punchestown Champion Four-Year-Hurdle, Plinth and Pearl Castle, now brought close together by the revised ratings.
Trainers have blanked this race with four-year-olds, though one won it in 2000, until the last two years, when two of around Grade-3 standard have finished second.
Pearl Castle at 14.0 and Plinth at 17.0 were easy to back on BETDAQ this morning in the face of strong support for Thomas Edison and Bayan.
Thomas Edison, whose trainer, Tony Martin, has already landed a gamble with Greatness here this week, has booked Tony McCoy for his dual Curragh winner in the Spring.
But the seven-year-old’s sole hurdles success was his maiden two years ago, and he was only fifth in his last try in a handicap at the same Punchestown Festival where Pearl Castle and Plinth were trading blows at Grade-1 level.
Unless Tony Martin has been sitting on this horse (pun intended) all its NH life, it must be a lay: at 2.62 in the green, I’ll dare a place lay in a competitive contest like this.
Bayan has much better credentials, third in the Coral Cup at Cheltenham, and a winner on the Flat recently – the right age at five – but I would want Gordon Elliott’s stable in better form: it’s had eight consecutive losing favourites, one of them, Sister Slew, a mighty flop here yesterday.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’m convinced this Galway Hurdle book is cock-eyed, upside down and a form nonsense. I cannot understand why it’s 12.5 bar two, the one a maiden-only hurdles winner, the other from a stable on a losing run.
I’ll champion the four-year-olds, Plinth and Pearl Castle, though Parlour Games could win if he behaves himself, and such is the feast of BETDAQ value, I shall back the three for one of them to hit the bull (50 points profit target).
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 3.4pts win RAINBOW ROCK and 1.6pts win and place EXAMINER (2.05 Goodwood)
BANKER: BET 20pts win IVAWOOD (2.35 Goodwood)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) ESTIMATE (3.10 Goodwood)
BET 7.5pts win MISSUNITED (3.45 Goodwood)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 4pts win PEARL CASTLE, 3pts win PLINTH and 2.7pts win PARLOUR GAMES (4.55 Galway), and LAY for a place 5pts THOMAS EDISON
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