CHALLENGE HAS LANDED 138 WINS: Who will be among the medals at Ayr today – the day of the bronze – and tomorrow, Ayr Gold Cup and silver-cup consolation day? Will it be Daqman or the Racing Post’s Pricewise, currently trailing our man 101-37 in their challenge match? They go head-to-head for bronze at 2.40 this afternoon.
SECOND AGAIN IN IRISH BIG RACE: Semeen (WON 7-2 at Yarmouth) saved some of the bacon yesterday after a luckless Listowel for Daqman, with two seconds in two big races, both beaten half a length: Pass The Hat (2nd 12-1) in the Kerry National and yesterday Macnicholson (2nd 7-1) in the Ladbrokes Hurdle.
BEAR 19.0 BETDAQ BET IN THE BRONZE
2.05 Ayr Tim Easterby had a winner here yesterday with Bacotheque, who captured this nursery in 2012. Tim’s current form in this race is 114 and his runner today, Honeysuckle Lil (13.5 on BETDAQ this morning) has a featherweight, if you can trust the jockeyship of 7lb-claimer Rachel Richardson.
There is no reason not to, after she brought ‘Lil’ home clear at Newcastle earlier in the month, also on a sound surface. She gets 19lb and 15lb respectively from the quality pair, Son Of Africa and Enlace.
2.40 Ayr (Bronze Cup) Four of the last five winners (all young horses; no older than six) have scored from within four stalls of either rail, drawn 3 and 4, 25 and 27.
If you add together winning trainers of all three cups – the gold, silver and bronze – over the decade, you get Richard Fahey 6 wins, David Nicholls 4, Kevin Ryan 3, Jim Goldie 2, Richard Price 2.
In the high draw today are Goldie’s pair, Midnight Dynamo (stall 25) and Rothesay Chancer (26) and the low stalls have Rasaman (in 3), trained by, yes, Jim Goldie again. Jim, himself, says he prefers the high draw.
David Nicholls has done well, too. Couldn’t have been better if he’d asked: Low stalls, please! He’s got them for all four of his runners: Galvanize in 2, Bajan Bear in 4, Fitz Flyer 6 and Layla’s Hero 7, so you can be sure he will want to put some hustle into that side of the track.
The pace is low if Cruise Tothelimit (in 1) and Baron Run (5) do their usual front-running act. It’s high if Searchlight (in 21) and Chesterton Aristocrat (20) again hit their gates running. What effect the ground will have either side, we don’t know.
Suited by the pace of the race among the low numbers will be Bajan Bear, drawn out of it at Doncaster last time. High side pick is Gran Canaria Queen who will love the drying ground.
Adjacent on the racecard, there’s not much between the Bear (19.0 on BETDAQ early mouse) and the Queen (15.0) on form lines through Jamesbo’s Girl. Except the width of the track!
3.10 Ayr (South Ayrshire Cup) Another big bunch of sprinters, this time over the minimum and two grades lower. Quality settles at the top, and three of the last four winners have carried more than 9st.
Pea Shooter (stall 3) would be doing so if his 2lb rise for an unlucky second at Doncaster could have taken effect today. He will be suited by the fast pace and stiff finish.
3.45 Ayr (Harry Rosebery Stakes) The winner has come from the first four in the market for nine years running at SP. Fillies have won it three times in the decade but outnumber the colts and gelding (Squats) 9-6 today.
Of the Group performers so far, only Jane’s Memory has a big entry (Cheveley Park) and she’s also the one with scope, having raced just three times for a yard currently buoyant with Mirza’s back-to-back success in the Prix du Petit Couvert.
The Racing Post ratings have Jane’s Memory and the exposed Al Fareej well clear but I think the improving course winner Squats is probably Jane’s biggest threat.
Officially, Mind Of Madness is top rated off 103 but the one Jane’s Memory beat for her maiden has gone up to 105 since, and ‘Jane’ has since finished second in a hot Group 3 at Chantilly. Doesn’t want the ground to firm up.
IT’S SAFETY FIRST AT NEWBURY
2.25 Newbury There-year-olds have an excellent record in this, with figures of 112112 in the last six seasons.
Saarrem was transformed by blinkers last time out and a win-and-place bet in a nine-runner race at 9.0 looks value, though the big improver (no aids needed) is High Church.
3.35 Newbury (Haynes, Hanson and Clark Stakes) Four subsequent Derby winners have won this race, the first of the big mile tests for two-year-olds.
Team Hannon have shared four winners since 2008 with Marcus Tregoning, and before you dismiss Tregoning’s Perceus because he hasn’t had a run, that was the case with the stable’s 20-1 winner of this six years ago.
Perceus, son of the stable’s Epsom Classic winner, Sir Percy, may have most to fear from Gibeon. His debut win has been let down by runner-up, Acaster Malbis, who comes back for more, but Gibeon had toochache that day and has been operated on since.
4.40 Newbury (Dubai Duty Free Cup) The third consecutive all-aged race here today in which three-year-olds have a fine record, with best returns of 113121 in six seasons.
One of them Safety Check, could make it five wins out of six for Godolphin in this race. He’s suited by the ground, whereas Lady Lara – placed in the May Hill last season- Absolutely So and Rerouted have done best on easier surfaces
SHALAM TOP OF THE BLACK STUFF
4.10 Listowel (Guinness Handicap) I can tell you what will be second! Having been on the runner-up (half a length down each time) in both Kerry National and Ladbrokes Hurdle in the last two days, I just had to try and break the hoodoo, and go third time lucky.
Hasanour is having a great run but the disguised horse for a punt is Davids Park. Three of his last four runs have been at Group level and he is interesting at 11.0 this morning.
Fran Berry rides Davids Park instead of Shalamzar, on whom he was third to Hasanour at Galway. Shalamzar is still worth a bet, claimed off so that he’s 15lb better with Hasanour.
Gordon Elliott has had a fabulous 15 of his last 17 runners finish in the first four, so I shall save a bit of the wallet for the end of the day and back easy Bellewstown winner Luddsdenene (5.50), steered today by top amateur Jamie Codd.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each staked to win 20 points)
BET 1.6pts win and place HONEYSUCKLE LIL (2.05 Ayr)
BET 12pts win HIGH CHURCH, and 2.5pts win and place SAAREM (2.25 Newbury)
BET 1.4pts win and place GRAN CANARIA QUEEN, and 1pt win and place BAJAN BEAR (2.40 Ayr)
BET 3.5pts win PEA SHOOTER (3.10 Ayr)
BET 5.5pts win SQUATS and 4pts win JANE’S MEMORY (3.45 Ayr)
BET 3pts win SHALAMZAR and 2pts DAVIDS PARK (4.10 Listowel)
BET 5pts win (nap) SAFETY CHECK (4.40 Newbury)
BET 5pts win LUDDSDENENE (5.50 Listowel)
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