New Orleans Saints (1-2, 1-2 ATS) @ Dallas Cowboys (2-1, 2-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -3 (53.5)
Significant Injuries
New Orleans: CB Patrick Robinson (questionable– hamstring), C Jonathan Goodwin (questionable– ankle), LB David Hawthorne (questionable– ankle), TE Ben Watson (questionable– groin), S Marcus Ball (out– hamstring), RB Mark Ingram (out– hand)
Dallas: DE Anthony Spencer (questionable– knee), LB Rolando McClain (questionable– groin), DT Terrell McClain (questionable– concussion), DT Henry Melton (questionable– hamstring)
Recent Trends
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
New Orleans is 2-8 ATS in their last 10 road games
Dallas is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 September games
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Dallas is 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a losing record
The underdog is 8-1 ATS in the last 9 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 13-3 in New Orleans’ last 16 games vs. NFC opponents
The UNDER is 5-1 in Dallas’ last 6 games overall
The OVER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints have been a great offensive team under coach Sean Payton and this year is certainly no exception, as they’re currently averaging 26 points per game and are ranked 3rd in total offense. On Sunday they’ll be facing a porous Dallas defense that ranks in the bottom-half of the league in every major statistical category.
2. The Saints have a better defense than people realize– they finished 4th in both yards allowed and points allowed in 2013 and they’ve retained most of their key personnel. A slow start this season has led some to believe that the days of New Orleans playing good defense are over, but the Saints played very well last week in limiting Minnesota to just 9 points. They should be able to frustrate a Dallas offense that has struggled at times this season.
3. The Cowboys are a terrible bet at home, covering just once in their last 5 attempts, and they’re overvalued right now after winning back-to-back road games. Both of their wins have come against teams with terrible offenses (Tennessee and St. Louis), and now they get the high-octane Saints. This will be a reality check for Dallas fans.
Three reasons to back Dallas
1. New Orleans has been overrated and overvalued all season and the pattern continues this week, as they’re 3-point road favorites over a team with a superior record. The fact that the Saints have covered just twice in their last 10 road games makes this line all the more ridiculous.
2. Dallas running back DeMarco Murray may be the best in the NFL at his position and he’s off to a great start this season, leading the league in rushing through 3 weeks. He’ll find plenty of room to run against the generous New Orleans defense, which should enable the Cowboys to control time of possession and keep Drew Brees on the sideline.
3. The Saints have been terrible on defense this season, surrendering 63 combined points in their first two games before facing the depleted Vikings last week. The Cowboys, meanwhile, are really beginning to click on offense, scoring 60 combined points over the last 2 weeks despite facing defenses that have out-performed the New Orleans defense this year. This is a great matchup for Tony Romo and Co.
Prediction
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