17.5 and 30.0 ARC HOPES FOR DAQMAN: It’s the most-talked-about race for years, a finale to the Flat season in Europe, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe, a wide open clash of cross-Channel champions. But which among them are value, the ‘wrong price’ in BETDAQ offers?’ Will 17.5 and 30.0 do you?
DAQMAN 103-39 UP ON PRICEWISE: Daqman and Pricewise fought out a dead-heat on the first day of Longchamp yesterday, with just one winner each, both being on Fractional (WON 11-5), who was awarded the Prix Dollar. The score is now 64-27 on the Flat (103-39 overall).
THE ONE-TWO FROM 23 RUNNERS: Daqman’s still on a banker-nap four-timer, with yesterday’s a non-runner, following his hat-trick. He laid Encke (3rd 6-5) and gave the one-two in the 23-runner Redcar Two-Year-Old Trophy, Limato (WON 6-5) and Mattmu (2nd 7-1).
TAPESTRY ARC SHOCK FOR BALLYDOYLE
Excuses, excuses! Taghrooda was in season when Tapestry beat her in the Irish Oaks. Ivanhowe won in Germany because Sea The Moon ‘had gone.’ The result is that Tapestry (17.5) and Ivanhowe (30.0) are enormous offers on BETDAQ this morning.
Yet two much shorter, Avenir Certain (snubbed by Ectot’s jockey) and Just the Way, have never won beyond 1m 2f. Bigger dangers may be Ectot and Taghrooda but Ectot has needed long gaps between his races in the past and Taghrooda has to bounce back from a wide draw.
Ivanhowe is the one most likely to actually benefit from a high stall since he stays very well and switches off in the early sections of his races.
3.30 Longchamp (Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe)
1: Tapestry Well drawn; likes a sound surface. Excuses for Taghrooda when she beat her in the Yorkshire Oaks but excuses, too (saddled slipped; sweated up beforehand) when Tapestry was beaten in the Irish Oaks. Supplemented for this.
2: Ivanhowe Though a four-year-old, has had just seven races in his life, culminating in shock defeat of odds-on Sea The Moon. Stays well and can sprint finish off a strong pace.
3: Avenir Certain Well drawn; has won on Polytrack, good ground turf, and very soft. Only four fillies have landed the French 1,000 Guineas-Oaks double since 1970, including Zarkava, who went on to win the Arc in the same year (2008). Avenir Certain has the same ability to switch off and then find a devastating turn of foot but has yet to win beyond 1m 2f.
4: Ectot Drawn on the cusp of the kindest stalls in 10. Six wins in a row including twice on good ground but has needed long gaps between races in the last year. The choice of jockey Gregory Benoist over Avenue Certain, and sure to go close if still in the form of his Prix Niel win three weeks ago.
5: Taghrooda Badly drawn. Outstayed by Tapestry in the Yorkshire Oaks but said to have been in season. Impressive in the King George.
6 Gold Ship Five times a Grade-1 winner. Failed to fight off Harp Star over 10 furlongs in August, but more the stayer and has won twice at 15f
7 Dolniya Well drawn; good ground winner, closing on the leaders in the Vermeille after 11 weeks’ absence following a hat-trick. Owner the Aga Khan always saves one up for the Arc and the dam’s half-sister, Dalakhani, won it.
8 Treve Well drawn; acts on good ground. Below last year’s scintillating form (won the Arc from an outside draw) this year in three odds-on defeats in a row. Needs to bounce back.
9: Flintshire Well drawn in 4; all wins on good ground. Master-trainer Andre Fabre was missing strike yesterday with two big-race seconds (Miss France in the Sun Chariot, Fractional in the Prix Dollar, awarded the race), and they are surrounded by 15 other losers since he last won.
Flintshire was only eighth in the Arc last year. Runner-up in the Coronation Cup and the Prix Foy but doesn’t look quite good enough.
10 Kingston Hill Drying ground and wide draw are both against the St Leger winner who needs time to get into gear, but there’s not much of that round those sweeping Longchamp bends.
WATCH THE BIRDIE! IT’S GLENEAGLES
1.00 Longchamp (Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp) A low draw is pretty crucial here too (seven out of nine in single-figure stalls).
The fast ground suits Sole Power, who has won the Palace House, King’s Strand and Nunthorpe in a sensational season, and is not out of it in gate 11 if the gaps come for him.
Hot Streak (in 9) was behind in both Kings Stand (third) and Nunthorpe (fifth) but this track could suit his style and 18.5 is big. Take Cover (stall 3 today and 11.5) hit his head in the stalls before the Nunthorpe and soft ground was against him last time.
Cotai Glory’s the fastest two-year-old in Europe but swerved away my Bull’s-Eye Bet in the Flying Childers and, sadly, is very unlikely to dominate from stall 16 today.
1.35 Longchamp (Prix Marcel Boussac) Ervedya, the Prix Morny third to The Wow Signal, has the form but the widest draw in 12. However, is back among her own sex here and will be hard to beat, given the breaks.
The Moyglare form, represented by Found (third) and Malabar (fourth) behind Cursory Glance and Lucida, is working out really well and I have a big word for Found this morning.
The place bet may be the Sea The Stars filly Night Of Light, who has struggled on the soft yet got close to Shahah at Chantilly. Best of the draw here on better ground: 20.0 on BETDAQ.
2.10 Longchamp (Prix Lagardere) A dramatic clash of two-year-old champions, The Wow Signal (Coventry, Prix Morny), Aktabantay (Solario Stakes), and Gleneagles (Futurity and National Stakes).
Aidan O”Brien won this seven times in the decade ended 2006 and, with The Wow Signal likely to be taken on by Ballydoyle second-string War Envoy, the wait-and-pounce strategy of Gleneagles could win the day.
2.45 Longchamp (Prix de l’Opera) Three-year-olds dominate (five out of six) with the French on seven out of eight.
Tarfasha, fifth in the Irish Oaks, could give that day’s runner-up an Arc boost, but the winner is likely to be We Are, who has performed well on the soft French tracks when she is bred to want it on top like today, and 7.2 looks big.
4.50 Longchamp (Prix de la Foret) Yet again, you have an edge with a low draw (seven winners out of eight). Gordon Lord Byron has his work cut out from stall 10, and only one horse over the age of five has win since the 1960s.
The ground has gone against Garswood, who won his only Group 1 on soft ground. Karakontie, the French Guineas winner, is expected to go close, but Fiesolana (9.6 on BETDAQ, as I write) has the speed on this ground to turn over their one-three placings at Deauville on heavy.
5.20 Longchamp (Prix du Cadran (French Gold Cup)) Doncaster Cup runner-up Whiplash Willie has a big shout but I prefer Lonsdale Cup winner and Irish St Leger fifth, Pale Mimosa.
DAQMAN’S BETS (to win 20 points unless stated)
BET 2pts win TAKE COVER and 1.1pts win and place HOT STREAK (1.00 Longchamp)
BET 7pts win (nap) FOUND, and 1pt win and place NIGHT OF LIGHT (1.35 Longchamp)
BET 7pts win GLENEAGLES (2.10 Longchamp)
BET 3pts win WE ARE (2.45 Longchamp)
BET 2.3pts win FIESOLANA (4.50 Longchamp)
BULL’S-EYE BET (to win 50): 3pts win and place TAPESTRY, and 1.7pts win and place IVANHOWE (3.30 Longchamp)
BET 7.5pts win PALE MIMOSA (5.20 Longchamp)
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