Cincinnati Bengals (3-0, 3-0 ATS) @ New England Patriots (2-2, 1-3 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cincinnati -2.5 (46)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: DE Margus Hunt (questionable– shoulder), WR Marvin Jones (doubtful– ankle), LB Vontaze Burfict (doubtful– concussion), G Kevin Zeitler (doubtful– calf), DT Brandon Thompson (out– knee)
New England: LB Jamie Collins (questionable– thigh), CB Alfonzo Dennard (questionable– shoulder), DE Dominique Easley (questionable– knee), LB Donte’ Hightower (questionable– knee), DE Chandler Jones (questionable– shoulder), S Nate Ebner (out– finger), OT Cameron Fleming (out– finger)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a win
Cincinnati is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games overall
New England is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 home games
New England is 34-16-1 ATS in their last 51 games following a loss
New England is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 20-5-1 in Cincinnati’s last 26 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4 games overall
The OVER is 5-1 in New England’s last 6 home games
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. The Bengals have been the best team in the NFL this season by any objective measure. They’re undefeated, they’ve covered in all three of their games, and they lead the league in point differential. The opportunity to back them in what is basically a pick ’em situation is too good to pass up.
2. The Patriots are in disarray after a blowout loss to a mediocre Kansas City team last week. Their offensive line is a mess, Tom Brady is having the worst season of his career, and their defense was shredded by pedestrian Chiefs offense. They’re still living on reputation in the betting marketplace, which is why they’re only a 1-point ‘dog here, but sharp bettors know that relying on things like “reputation” is the quickest way to the poor house.
3. Cincinnati has the NFL’s best defense, a unit that is allowing just 11 points per game this season. The last time they saw this New England offense– in Week 5 of last year– the Pats managed just 6 points in a loss. Two things have changed since then: the Cincinnati defense has improved and the New England offense has regressed.
Three reasons to back New England
1. This is a circle-the-wagons moment for the proud New England franchise, as they’ve been roundly dismissed as contenders after the embarrassing loss in Kansas City last week. They’ve always been good in situations like this under Belichick, going 34-16-1 against the spread in their last 51 games following a loss. Plus, they’re playing at home, where they’re 7-2 ATS in their last nine.
2. Nearly everyone seems to be proclaiming the Bengals as the league’s best team, which has naturally led to them being overvalued in the betting marketplace. But look at Cincinnati’s schedule… who have they really beaten? They pulled out a tight win over Baltimore in Week 1, but their last two opponents– Atlanta and Tennessee– are bad teams with terrible defenses. Going on the road to face a New England team that’s backed into a corner will be a test unlike any the Bengals have faced since the playoffs last year, and we all remember how that turned out.
3. The Bengals are quarterbacked by the decidedly average Andy Dalton, a player with a documented history of playing poorly in big games. Dalton will be facing a motivated Patriots defense that was playing at an elite level before struggling in Kansas City last week. Considering that the Cincinnati running backs are averaging less than 4 yards per carry this season, it seems highly unlikely that the Bengals will have much offensive success in this game.
Prediction
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