Pittsburgh Steelers (3-2, 2-3 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (2-2, 2-0-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -1 (47.5)
Significant Injuries
Pittsburgh: CB Ike Taylor (out– forearm), S Shamarko Thomas (out– hamstring), LB Ryan Shazier (out– knee)
Cleveland: CB Joe Haden (questionable– hip), LB Paul Kruger (questionable– back), DE Billy Winn (out– quadricep), DE Phil Taylor (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Pittsburgh is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games
Pittsburgh is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a win
Cleveland is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 home games vs. a team with a winning record
Cleveland is 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. AFC North opponents
The underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 12-5 in Pittsburgh’s last 17 games vs. AFC North opponents
The OVER is 4-0 in Cleveland’s last 4 home games
The OVER is 5-0 in Cleveland’s last 5 games following a win
Three reasons to back Pittsburgh
1. The Ben Roethlisberger-led Steelers always– and I mean always– beat Cleveland. Roethlisberger is 18-1 as a starter against the Browns, a record unmatched in the history of the NFL over a quarterback’s first 19 games against a specific opponent (seriously). This year’s Cleveland team is nothing special, either, as the Steelers proved when they beat them in Week 1.
2. The Steelers have an explosive offense that ranks 4th in total yards per game and 8th in both rush yards and passing yards. They should have a big day against the terrible Browns defense, a unit that surrenders 26.2 points per game and ranks 31st in yards allowed.
3. The Browns have an offense that is bereft of skill position talent and led by a journeyman quarterback who has been a backup for the majority of his career. They’ve covered just once in their last 5 home games, once in their last 5 games vs. AFC North opponents, and twice in their last 9 games against AFC teams. Trusting them as a favorite against the Steelers, a team they regularly fail to beat, seems unwise, to say the least.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns are a team on the rise– they erased a 25-point deficit to win on the road last week and their two losses this season have come by 5 combined points. The Steelers, on the other hand, lost to the lowly Bucs in Week 4 and barely squeaked by Jacksonville last week despite the Jags entering the game with an 0-4 record and the league’s worst point differential.
2. The Pittsburgh defense has struggled this season and was manhandled by the Cleveland offensive line in Week 1, when the Browns rolled up 183 rushing yards on 30 carries. The Steelers will be without starting inside linebacker Ryan Shazier and top cornerback Ike Taylor on Sunday, so it seems unlikely that they’ll be able to slow down the same offense they had so much trouble with a month ago.
3. The Browns will be playing at home this week, where they’ve failed to cover just 3 times in their last 11 games against teams with winning records. They’ve experienced so much frustration against Pittsburgh through the years, losing 18 of the 19 times that they’ve faced Ben Roethlisberger, and now they finally seem to have the better team. Don’t be surprised if Cleveland exorcises some demons with an emphatic win on Sunday.
Prediction
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