30.0 AND 23.0 BIG-RACE OUTSIDERS: Communicator at 23.0 on BETDAQ is one of Daqman’s win-and-place picks for the Cesarewitch this afternoon and he has 30.0 and 16.0 offers in other races including one which has a ‘massive chance.’ He makes the Cesarewitch a race for Bull’s-Eye Bets (to win 50 points).
DAQMAN’S A WINNER ALL THE WAY: Daqman’s different bets are all doing well, including in his challenge to Pricewise of the Racing Post (totals between them: 104-40). Here’s his current situation on the Flat:
CHALLENGE: (Flat) Daqman 65, Pricewise 28
BANKERS: Four in a row
NAPS: Last nine days’ results as form figures: 111114123
BIG EASY HAS ALL THE CREDENTIALS
2.05 Newmarket (Autumn Stakes) Classic-quality stayers have won this: a Leger winner and runner-up; a Derby winner and runner-up.
Those bred for glory today are Future Empire, who is by New Approach, the Galileo colt Order Of St George, and Mukhayyam, by a sprinting sire but with Oaks-winning blood on the dam’s side. He’s already won up to a mile (beat Jolievitesse at Newcastle) but has to step up from a handicap.
Future Empire sets the target as runner-up in the Solario but the winner that day (Aktabantay) was in cheekpieces and reached for the blinkers when well beaten in last Sunday’s Grand Criterium at Longchamp.
Order Of St George won his maiden by a street but, at a price, Bartholomew Fair (9.0 on BETDAQ early mouse), by Dansili out of Coronation Stakes winner, Rebecca Sharp, might cause an upset. Quickened really well when winning at Yarmouth.
2.20 York Educate’s John Smith’s Cup fourth over CD in July off 112 suggests that he can be competitive here, with a 7lb-claimer reducing his rating to 102, but you have to trust that the boy can do the job, since he’s ridden just the one winner on turf in two seasons.
Fattsota is another who goes well on an easy surface. He stays further, is well drawn and comes from the burgeoning David O’Meara stable (note to dinky female interviewers: he likes to be called ‘O’Mara’ not ‘O’Meera.’)
First Flight has done fairly well, in and out of class 2, though – as yet – his sole success is in class 3 on firm, but Sudden Wonder has scored at this higher level, including on soft, is dropping back to in trip and down in grade from the Pattern.
Soviet Rock’s consistency has cost him a rise in the ratings and he’s drawn noticeably wide for a van runner. Silvery Moon and Sennockian Star are also high in the handicap. Gabrial lacks a finish.
Magic Hurricane may be a bit disguised. You can forgive him (and most horses) a poor run at Goodwood, after his third in the Old Newton Cup at Haydock, and let him off his return in a slow-run race after a holiday because of the firm ground.
Sudden Wonder and Magic Hurricane are both around 9.8 this morning and, in a punter-friendly BETDAQ orange, I could afford to back both, early mouse.
3.10 Newmarket There’s only one thing worse than an early-season three-year-olds handicap and that’s a late-season three-year-olds handicap.
In the Spring you have no real form to go on; in the Autumn, there are late improvers and a fresh horse can be better than one with winning form. Or not.
This morning’s race should be renamed the QI contest, because – at 8.6 the field on BETDAQ – ‘nobody knows!’
Best to guide your pin to a horse with five races or fewer on his CV, low drawn, like Stetchworth, a New Approach colt unexposed at the trip and – since trained Mark Johnston – should get a good start on the rail and play catch me.
Rewaaya is also well placed and fears about her propensity to tail-flash were dispelled when she scooted up over today’s CD three weeks ago. Like Battersea higher up the handicap, she is on the upgrade at the right time but has been tonked by the handicapper.
Even higher is Connecticut, who brings Adventure Seeker and Penhill into it on York form. And cleverly moving up in trip, Top Tug ‘could be anything’ from the Stoute emporium, bred on one side of his pedigree to get 2m 4f!
My three against the field are – down the handicap – Rewaaya, Top Tug and Stetchworth, with Stetchworth the value at 16.0 on BETDAQ this morning. I can see Rewaaya making a rails run against him and Top Tug sweeping down the outside.
3.30 York Stalls 3 and 4 (twice) won the three sprint-distance races yesterday and gate 4 won it last year, but it’s always best to have one on the other side, though today’s pace, potentially from stalls 10 (Watchable) and 13 (Highland Colori), might give us a diamond formation down the middle.
As a Pivotal, Watchable should enjoy the ground, but the stats say he is a couple of pounds too high, and his far-side lead in the Ayr Gold Cup has cost him another pound rise for finishing 12th!
Tim Easterby’s Fast Shot (stall 1) was in front of him in fifth. Hampered behind Mick Easterby’s Aetna over CD in the Spring but Aetna (stall 14) is the fresh horse, back after a break with a fine run at Newmarket recently.
Chilworth Icon (stall 18) was hampered in the Portland after powering home at Sandown over the minimum, but he has a poor strike rate.
The 2013 Stewards Cup winner, Rex Imperator (in 12), has been given a massive chance by the handicapper, dropped more than a stone since June and 9lb below his last winning mark.
I find myself at top (Aetna 5.2) and bottom (Rex Imperator 30.0) of the BETDAQ market without finding anything in the low stalls, so I will have to add Mass Rally (in 5), winner of the race last year from 1lb higher mark.
3.50 Newmarket (Cesarewitch, see ABC Guide, Thursday archive) The X-Factor which can now be added to my ABC guide is the draw: in the last 16 seasons, 11 winners have been drawn 16 or lower – some 14 were 19 or lower – and only two have come out of gate 25 or higher.
Among the fancied horses slung out wide are Nearly Caught (stall 20), Brass Ring (22), Suegioo (23), Saddler’s Rock (24), Digeanta (25), Teak (27), Mubaraza (30), Ray Ward (32), Earth Amber (33), Swnymor (34), Rhombus (35) and Sohar (36).
Those favoured by the draw from the top of my ABC list are Big Easy (stall 2), Moidore (4), Gabrial’s King (18), Spice Fair (1), Sula Two (9), Noble Silk (19), Quick Jack (12) and Villa Royale (11).
Some 15 of the last 20 years saw an established hurdler finish in the first two, which picks out Big Easy, who has all the credentials, and Quick Jack, the consistent Irish raider, but the Northumberland Plate is a key race (8 out of 20).
That switches the emphasis to Noble Silk – a horse with potential for this – unless Sueigoo can overcome his high weight and 23 draw.
Noble Silk has finished his races all season as if he wants to run round again. He must go close if the rain stays away; if it falls in any quantity, it brings in Moidore, who was my ABC Guide headliner for a royal victory.
Communicator’s form figures between 1m 6f and 2m 2f are 2234333, suggesting he will be thereabouts, and there is a Cesarewitch winner in his dam’s family.
The strong gallop will help and he has that NH mix, runner-up last December to the subsequent Supreme Novice Hurdle second, Josses Hill.
My four against the field are, in alpha order, Big Easy (12.5 on BETDAQ, as I write), Communicator (23.0), Noble Silk (29.0)and Quick Jack, with Quick Jack awfully short at 7.4 for this kind of race, so employed only as a stakes saver. If he wins, he will count in my Pricewise challenge only if Pricewise has all losers and no profit in the race.
CHEPSTOW: Murphys Way (6.00) was the early-mouse gamble at Chepstow, quickly ousting Duke Des Champs from the favourite’s chair. Barry Geraghty steps in for the injured A P McCoy.
In the absence of Colour Squadron, Southfield Theatre (3.40) looks a banker for Paul Nicholls. Reckoned a Cheltenham horse for next year.
DAQMAN’S BETS (each to win 20 point, unless otherwise stated, and excluding the banker)
BET 2.5pts win and place BARTHOLOMEW FAIR (2.05 Newmarket)
BET 2.2pts win on each MAGIC HURRICANE and SUDDEN WONDER (2.20 York)
BET 2.5pts win REWAAYA, 2.2pts win TOP TUG and 1.3pts win and place STETCHWORTH (3.10 Newmarket)
BET 4.8pts win AETNA, 2.2pts win MASS RALLY, and 0.6pts win and place REX IMPERATOR (3.30 York)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) SOUTHFIELD THEATRE (3.40 Chepstow)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 4.3pts win BIG EASY, 2.2pts win and place COMMUNICATOR, 1.7pts win and place NOBLE SILK, with 1.8pts win (stakes saver) QUICK JACK (3.30 Newmarket)
BET 11pts win MURPHY’S WAY (6.00 Chepstow)
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