Atlanta Falcons (3-6, 4-5 ATS) @ Carolina Panthers (3-6-1, 5-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Atlanta -1 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Atlanta: OT Jonathan Scott (questionable– hamstring), S William Moore (out– shoulder)
Carolina: RB DeAngelo Williams (questionable– foot), WR Jerricho Cotchery (questionable– hamstring), CB Bene Benwikere (questionable– ankle), G Trai Turner (questionable– knee), DT Star Lotulelei (questionable– ankle), DE Greg Hardy (out– suspension), DE Frank Alexander (out– suspension)
Recent Trends
Atlanta is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC South opponents
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games
Carolina is 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 home games
Carolina is 14-5-1 ATS in their last 20 games vs. a team with a losing record
Carolina is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a Monday night game
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Atlanta’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 5-0 in Atlanta’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 7-0 in Carolina’s last 7 games vs. NFC South opponents
The OVER is 6-2 in Carolina’s last 8 games overall
Three reasons to back Atlanta
1. The Falcons won last week and they’re usually a great bet against their NFC South rivals, covering in each of their last 5 division games. The Panthers, meanwhile, haven’t won since Week 5 and have lost their last two games by 42 combined points.
2. Atlanta ranks 8th in the NFL in total offense and 7th in passing offense, as Matt Ryan is averaging over 270 yards per game through the air. This week he’ll be facing a Carolina defense that ranks 25th in yards allowed and 29th in points allowed. The Panthers have surrendered 28 points or more in 4 of their past 5 games.
3. The Carolina offense has been abysmal in recent weeks, producing 21 points or fewer in 4 consecutive games. That’s always problematic but especially so when you have a defense that surrenders 28.1 points per game, as the Panthers do. The Falcons have improved on defense over the course of the year and have held their last two opponents to 39 combined points.
Three reasons to back Carolina
1. The Panthers are a prideful, veteran team (they did win the division last year, after all) that was embarrassed in their last game, and now they host a Falcons team that has covered just once in their last 5 road games and has lost 5 of 6 overall. Remember– last week aside, Carolina nearly always plays well at home, covering in 9 of their past 13 opportunities. The Panthers are a great situational play here.
2. The Falcons rank 31st in total defense and 32nd– a.k.a. dead last– against the pass. They’ve surrendered 28.2 points per game on the road this season. It’s a defense that shouldn’t be trusted under any circumstance, as they’ve proven repeatedly this year.
3. Carolina finally has their formidable backfield tandem healthy again, and Jonathan Stewart hasn’t looked this spry in quite a while. Stewart and DeAngelo Williams should be able to run all over the vulnerable Atlanta defensive front, which will allow the Panthers to possess the ball and keep the pressure on Matt Ryan and the Atlanta offense. Ryan is protected by one of the league’s worst offensive lines, so when the Falcons get desperate things seem to crumble. It’s a pattern that has repeated itself over and over this season, and smart money’s on it happening again this week.
Prediction
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