Minnesota Vikings (4-5, 5-4 ATS) @ Chicago Bears (3-6, 3-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Chicago -3 (46.5)
Significant Injuries
Minnesota: LB Brandon Watts (questionable– knee), TE Kyle Rudolph (questionable– groin), RB Adrian Peterson (out– suspension)
Chicago: LB Darryl Sharpton (questionable– hamstring), G Eben Britton (questionable– illness), WR Brandon Marshall (questionable– ankle), G Matt Slauson (out– pectoral), DE Lamarr Houston (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Minnesota is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games vs. NFC opponents
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a win
Chicago is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a loss
Chicago is 5-16 ATS in their last 21 games vs. NFC North opponents
Chicago is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 home games vs. a team with a losing record
The home team is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 7-1 in Chicago’s last 8 games vs. NFC opponents
The OVER is 6-1 in Chicago’s last 7 games following a loss of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Minnesota
1. The Vikings have won two straight games and are coming off a bye, while the Bears have totally collapsed, losing their last 3 games by 82 combined points. The wrong team is favored here, and they’re favored because of lingering preseason bias , the same bias that has prompted bettors to throw money at this terrible Chicago team all season.
2. The Bears have surrendered more points than any team in the league this season– a staggering 30.8 per game. They’ve been historically bad over the last two weeks, becoming the first team since the 1923 Rochester Jeffersons to surrender 50 or more points in back-to-back games. The Vikings, meanwhile, scored 29 points in their last game and they’ve had a bye week to prepare for the Chicago defense, so anything fewer than 30 points from the Minnesota offense would have to be considered a disappointment.
3. The Vikings rank 9th in total defense and 4th against the pass, so it’ll be tough sledding for the mistake-prone Chicago offense, a unit whose quarterback– Jay Cutler– is having a terrible year. Only Jacksonville rookie Blake Bortles has thrown more interceptions than Cutler, and the Vikings have tallied 8 interceptions this season and have held 3 of their past 4 opponents to 17 points or fewer.
Three reasons to back Chicago
1. The Bears are a prideful, veteran team in a backs-to-the-wall situation, and this week they’re hosting a sub-.500 Vikings team that’s led by a rookie quarterback. In other words, there couldn’t be a more perfect opportunity for the Bears to get back on track with a win. Chicago is a “buy low” value as a short home favorite.
2. Minnesota has one of the NFL’s worst offenses, a unit that averages just 316 total yards and 18.7 points per game. They start rookies at both quarterback and running back and have produced fewer than 20 points in 4 of their past 5 games. Under no circumstance should you trust the Minnesota offense with your money, especially on the road.
3. Chicago has offensive firepower that compares favorably to any team in the league. They have an elite tandem of wideouts (Brandon Marshall and Alshon Jeffery), a Pro Bowl running back (Matt Forte), a difference-maker at the tight end position (Martellus Bennett), and a quarterback who can make every throw in the book. The Vikings are simply overmatched here, and Chicago’s recent struggles are the only thing keeping this line where it is. If you believe in betting on the superior team, a Chicago bet is the only sensible option.
Prediction
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