Cincinnati Bengals (5-3-1, 4-4-1 ATS) @ New Orleans Saints (4-5, 4-5 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: New Orleans -7.5 (50.5)
Significant Injuries
Cincinnati: CB Terence Newman (questionable– knee), LB Rey Maualuga (questionable– hamstring), OT Andre Smith (doubtful– ankle), RB Giovani Bernard (out– hip), LB Vontaze Burfict (out– knee)
New Orleans: CB Keenan Lewis (questionable– knee), LB Curtis Lofton (questionable– knee), WR Robert Meachem (questionable– ankle), RB Khiry Robinson (out– forearm), RB Pierre Thomas (out– ribs)
Recent Trends
Cincinnati is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 games following a loss
Cincinnati is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall
New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
New Orleans is 16-5 ATS in their last 21 home games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 4-0 in Cincinnati’s last 4 games following a loss
The OVER is 4-1 in Cincinnati’s last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
The OVER is 4-1 in New Orleans’ last 5 home games
The OVER is 5-1 in New Orleans’ last 6 games overall
Three reasons to back Cincinnati
1. Don’t let last week’s uninspiring result fool you– the Bengals are a quality team that has lost only 3 times in 9 games this season, and they’re getting a whopping 7.5 points here against a Saints team that has lost more games than they’ve won. The Marvin Lewis-led Bengals traditionally respond well to losses, covering in 7 of their last 9 games following a defeat, and they’ve had a week-and-a-half to prepare for this game. Smart money’s on them putting up a fight, and that’s all they need to do in this case.
2. The Saints have a leaky defense that has surrendered 23 points or more in 7 of the team’s 9 games this season, so they’re likely to have trouble with a balanced Cincinnati offense that has reached the 23-point mark 6 times already despite having to play several games without All Pro wideout A.J. Green (who has since returned). The Bengals should be able to move the ball at will and light up the scoreboard, nice attributes for a 7.5-point ‘dog.
3. The Bengals have improved defensively in recent weeks, holding each of their last 3 opponents to 24 points or fewer. This week they’ll face a banged-up New Orleans offense that will be without two of its top 3 running backs and possibly explosive wideout Robert Meachem as well, so the Saints’ offensive production this week may be in line with their games against Cleveland, Minnesota, Dallas, and San Frnacisco, games in which they produced 24, 20, 17, and 24 points respectively.
Three reasons to back New Orleans
1. The Saints are a great bet in the Superdome and that’s especially true when they’re facing quality opposition, as they’ve covered in 16 of their last 21 home games against teams with winning records despite being favored in 18 of those games. The Bengals, meanwhile, have covered just once in their last 7 games overall. When you hit an ‘ATS’ skid like that, it just means that perception is not matching up with reality. It’s up to the more discerning bettor to take advantage of the situation.
2. Once again, the Drew Brees-led New Orleans offense is one of the NFL’s best, averaging 435 yards and 27.9 points per game. They shouldn’t have any difficulty with the dreadful Cincinnati defense, a unit that is surrendering more yards per game than all but two teams leaguewide.
3. In Cincinnati’s last two road games they were beaten by a combined score of 70-17. Last week they hosted the Cleveland Browns and were pounded 24-3. What, exactly, is there to like about the Bengals in this particular situation, on the road against a division-leading team that averages nearly 30 points per game? This game has definite blowout potential.
Prediction
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