Houston Texans (4-5, 5-4 ATS) @ Cleveland Browns (6-3, 5-2-2 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Cleveland -3.5 (41)
Significant Injuries
Houston: RB Arian Foster (questionable– groin), CB Kareem Jackson (out– knee)
Cleveland: S Tashaun Gipson (questionable– concussion), TE Jordan Cameron (out– concussion), S Johnson Bademosi (out– concussion), DT Phil Taylor (out– knee), WR Josh Gordon (out– suspension), C Alex Mack (out– leg)
Recent Trends
Houston is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings between these 2 teams
Houston is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Cleveland is 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a losing record
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a win of more than 14 points
The OVER is 4-1 in Houston’s last 5 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Houston’s last 4 games overall
The UNDER is 5-0 in Cleveland’s last 5 games overall
The UNDER is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Houston
1. The Texans are a dangerous team– they’re just 1 game below .500 despite a schedule that has featured three division-leading teams, and each of their last 4 losses have come by 10 points or fewer. They had a bye last week, so they should be rested and ready for a Cleveland team that is overvalued after racking up wins against the dregs of the league, teams like Oakland, Tampa Bay, and Tennessee.
2. The Browns rank 20th in total defense and have really struggled against the run, ranking 28th in rush yards allowed. The Texans, meanwhile, are a team that relies on the running game and has run the ball very well this season, producing nearly 140 yards per game on the ground. This is a great matchup for the Houston offense.
3. Houston has a stout defense that ranks 11th in points allowed and features the NFL’s best defensive player, J.J. Watt. They should be able to control a nondescript Cleveland offense that is averaging just 17 points per game over their last four contests. The Browns are sorely lacking in skill-position talent, and go-to tight end Jordan Cameron is set to miss another game due to concussion-related issues.
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. The Browns have been much better than the Texans this season– they have a superior record, they’ve performed better against the spread, they score more points, they allow fewer points… they’re simply a better team. People are slow to respect the Browns, though, possibly because of their losing history, and that has created value for Cleveland bettors all season. Based on the line in this game– a very reasonable 3.5– the value still exists.
2. Houston has had significant issues in the passing game this season, and those issues have now prompted a change at quarterback, as Ryan Mallett will make his first career start on Sunday. The Browns rank 6th in the NFL in points allowed and the secondary is the strength of their defense, so this situation is less than ideal for the Texans, to say the least. Plus, Houston could be without bellcow running back Arian Foster this week– Foster is officially listed as questionable with a groin injury– so Mallett may be forced to shoulder a heavy load.
3. The Texans rank 28th in total defense, 29th against the pass, and 21st against the run. They simply haven’t been able to stop anybody all season, and Cleveland has a balanced offense that ranks in the top-half of the league in most every major statistical category. The Browns have produced 21 points or more in 8 of their 9 games this season, and they’re likely to far exceed that total against the porous Houston defense.
Prediction
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