Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-8, 3-6 ATS) @ Washington Redskins (3-6, 3-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Washington -7.5 (45.5)
Significant Injuries
Tampa Bay: DE Michael Johnson (questionable– hand), TE Luke Stocker (questionable– hip), CB Alterraun Verner (questionable– hamstring), RB Doug Martin (out– ankle)
Washington: TE Logan Paulsen (questionable– foot)
Recent Trends
Tampa Bay is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 games vs. NFC opponents
Tampa Bay is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a losing record
Washington is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games
Washington is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games following a loss
Washington is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall
The underdog is 4-1-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The OVER is 4-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 5 road games
The UNDER is 5-1 in Tampa Bay’s last 6 games vs. a team with a losing record
The UNDER is 8-2 in Washington’s last 10 home games vs. a team with a losing record
Three reasons to back Tampa Bay
1. The Bucs have been very competitive since their Week 7 bye, losing each of their last 3 games by 10 points or fewer and nearly winning each one. They’ve improved without the general public realizing they’ve improved, which is the dream scenario for a bettor. It’s why they’re a whopping 7.5-point ‘dog this week against a Washington team that’s won just twice in its last 7 games and is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. There just isn’t a 7-point difference between these two teams.
2. After struggling mightily early in the season the Bucs have really shored up their defense of late, limiting their last three opponents to 27 points or fewer. The Redskins, meanwhile, have scored less than 27 points in 6 consecutive games despite facing teams like Tennessee, Dallas, and the New York Giants– teams that aren’t exactly known for their defensive prowess.
3. The Redskins have a porous defense that is surrendering 25.4 points per game, and in their last game they allowed a Vikings offense that was led by a rookie quarterback go up and down the field en route to a 29-point outing. The Tampa offense saw veteran QB Josh McCown return to the lineup last week, and McCown has two fantastic wideouts at his disposal– Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans. Look for the Bucs to attack the Washington defense downfield, as Redskins safeties Brandon Meriweather and Ryan Clark can be exposed in coverage.
Three reasons to back Washington
1. The Redskins have been better than the Bucs in every way this season: they have a superior record, they score more points, and they allow fewer points. Of course, just about every team in the league is better than the 1-8 Bucs, but the ‘Skins aren’t your average 3-6 team. They’ve won 2 of their past 3 games, including a Week 8 win over Dallas– one of the NFC’s best teams– and they rank in top-10 in both total offense and total defense. They’re favored by more than a touchdown here because they should be: this game is a mismatch.
2. Washington has an explosive offense that ranks 7th in total yards per game and 6th in pass yards per game, and that offense finally has elite young quarterback Robert Griffin III back under center. This week Griffin will be facing a Tampa defense that is surrendering more points per game (30.2) than all but one team leaguewide, so a big day from the Redskins offense is expected.
3. The Bucs are terrible on defense but their offense may be even worse, as they rank 29th in total yards per game and have produced 17 points or fewer in each of their past 4 games. Last week’s 17-point outing came against the porous Atlanta defense, so the Bucs seemingly have little chance of success against a Washington defense that ranks 10th in yards allowed and has had an extra week to prepare (the Redskins had a bye in Week 10).
Prediction
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