Philadelphia Eagles (7-2, 6-3 ATS) @ Green Bay Packers (6-3, 5-3-1 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Green Bay -5 (54.5)
Significant Injuries
Philadelphia: QB Nick Foles (out– collarbone)
Green Bay: TE Brandon Bostick (out– hip), LB Jayrone Elliot (out– hamstring)
Recent Trends
Philadelphia is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall
Philadelphia is 4-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record
Green Bay is 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 home games
Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games vs. NFC opponents
Green Bay is 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games vs. a team with a winning record
The UNDER is 4-0 in Philadelphia’s last 4 games vs. a team with a winning record
The OVER is 9-4 in Philadelphia’s last 13 road games
The OVER is 4-0 in Green Bay’s last 4 home games
The OVER is 7-0 in Green Bay’s last 7 games following a win of more than 14 points
The UNDER is 6-0 in the last 6 meetings between these 2 teams
Three reasons to back Philadelphia
1. The Eagles are an elite team: they’re 7-2, they’ve won 4 of their past 5 games, and their last 3 wins have come by 61 combined points. The opportunity to back a team like this as fairly significant underdog does not come around very often and should be taken advantage of. Philly is a high-scoring team that generates pressure defensively but relies on its offense to win games, and Green Bay just faced another team that fits that mold (the poor man’s version, too, based on the records), losing by 21 to New Orleans in Week 8.
2. Philadelphia boasts a run-first offense that produces nearly 115 yards per game on the ground, and this week they’ll face a Green Bay defense that has been utterly unable to slow down opposing rushing attacks this season. The Packers rank 30th against the run, surrendering a staggering 142.4 rushing yards per game. This is a great matchup for LeSean McCoy and the Eagles offense.
3. The Eagles average 31 points per game and their offense is steadily improving, as they’ve produced 76 combined points in their last two outings. Mark Sanchez has been a clear upgrade at quarterback over the injured Nick Foles, but Sanchez’s reputation as an unreliable turnover machine is alive and well with the betting public, which is why the Eagles have been undervalued for the past couple of weeks. If Sanchez keeps playing at such an incredibly high level the public will catch on, but for now the secret is safe amongst sharp bettors, as the Green Bay side in this game has been a magnet for public action all week.
Three reasons to back Green Bay
1. The Packers have won 5 of their past 6 games, with four of those wins coming by 21 points or more. They’ve also been excellent at home this year, going 4-0-1 against the number in their last 5 games at Lambeau despite being favored in every one of those games. The Eagles, meanwhile, have floundered against quality opposition under Chip Kelly, covering just 4 times in their last 17 games against teams with winning records.
2. Green Bay has an underrated defense that ranks 9th against the pass and has been positively dominant at home, surrendering just 16.2 points per game in their 4 home games this season. This week they’ll face an Eagles offense that will be quarterbacked by Mark Sanchez, whose disastrous career has been well-documented and is frequently lampooned (Butt Fumble, anyone??). Anyone who has any confidence in Sanchez out-dueling Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau Field should have their head examined.
3. Not only have the Packers been winning this season, they’ve been winning big, and that’s been especially true when they’ve been at home, where they’ve won their four games by 101 combined points. Both of Philly’s losses this season have come on the road and their two road wins have come by just 13 combined points, so if form holds for both teams then Green Bay should walk away with an easy win. We’ve all seen what happens when Aaron Rodgers goes up against struggling secondaries, and the Eagles rank 22nd in passing defense, so…
Prediction
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