SENSATIONAL VALUE ON BETDAQ: It’s neck and neck in the value race between Daqman and Pricewise of the Racing Post, with the score 2-2 this jumps season, though a runaway 110-46 to Daqman since this time last year. They clash today in two big races, 2.40 Newcastle and 3.00 Newbury, with the races described by Daqman as sensational value on BETDAQ.
THE DAQMAN CHIPS ARE DOWN: Daqman, who has had winning days of four, five, six and even eight successes in the last week, brings his chips to the table today with the state of play as follows:
Bull’s-Eye Bets: 256 points profit
Naps: 4 out of 7
Bankers: 2 out of 3
Lays: 5 in a row
Value: Daqman 2, Pricewise 2 (overall 110-46)
HAVE A PUNTER-FRIENDLY GOLD CUP DAY
Value takes two forms. When you are hunting for your Hennessy Gold Cup bet, try to decide what price you want. ‘Pricing up’ is one of the keys to successful betting. If you want 10-1 about a horse and you can get only 5-1, don’t back it. But, if it’s the other way round, grab it.
Second of all, as the bean counter said, place your bet ONLY in a value market. Check out all the prices in that market, add them up and, if they are badly overround against you (percentage total much more than 100), move on.
The game played by my opponent Pricewise is to try to find the best price from a plethora of bookmakers. You can spend your time doing that, and you might be lucky to get what’s in print (you might not).
Or you can take the armchair way out, the early-mouse action on BETDAQ. No one will intervene and change the odds or cut your stake if you find the price you want, and you can be sure the offer is in a punter-friendly market, adding up as I write to 107%.
The bookmakers’ take-out has been rising steeply at SP. In the last four years, the Hennessy Total SP has grown from 125% in 2010 to 127, then 129 and last year 137%.
The Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle had a 105% total in the orange this morning and the Fighting Fifth (2.05) a sensational 101%, in which the layers are paying out almost what is invested by backers, a level playing-field.
HE HAS MORE OF THE WORLD AT HIS FEET
12.20 Newbury Favourites have misfired in the two seasons of this race, both from big yards (Henderson and Mullins) and both four-year-olds.
This time Henderson saddles a five-year-old, the successful age group so far, and he’ll be hoping for a drying day, an early appearance of the forecast sunshine and the benefit of fresh turf provided by moving the rails.
Broxbourne, dropped back in trip to her winning Flat distance for Mark Johnston, was a big price early mouse on BETDAQ at 5.1 in the head-to-head, Barry Geraghty v A P McCoy, who rides the Robert Tyner visitor, Carrigmoorna Rock, a Grade-3 runner-up at Down Royal.
But the Irish mare has beaten ‘nothing’ and known front-runners A Doll In Milan and Ardnahoe are likely to give Broxbourne, a 2m 4f winner, the toe and the tow she needs to get competitive.
12.50 Newbury Alan King has farmed this with two runners, two winners, in its three seasons, beating short-priced Nicholls and Henderson favourites.
But Turn Over Sivola has not been fluent in his two runs back and is one of the biggest bridesmaids in training: Sivola has been turned over, second, eight times and third three times.
Nicholls’ Keltus has also been back to school after some ungainly jumping recently, slip sliding away his chances, and he needs drier ground.
Feature of the race is that it is top heavy with 2m4f-3m chasers, Tara Road, Royal Regatta, The Clock Leary and Seventh Sky all dropping back to 2m. Curiouser and curiouser.
1.20 Newbury (Fulke Walwyn Trophy) This race comes with a wallet warning for the winner: the last two successful have both failed to score again.
Robert Tyner’s second runner of the meeting, Dushrembrandt (7.0 on BETDAQ), has Ruby Walsh booked. Back to his winning trip after running second in the Cork Grand National, which cost him only a pound rise.
In an open market on BETDAQ, five horses are covered by only 0.8 points in the orange. But Midnight Appeal is hard to catch right (two wins in two years), Bertie Boru ran poorly on his last visit here, Listen Boy is up in rating and in grade and Noble Legend is a pacemaker who rarely hangs on in there.
1.50 Newbury The two winners of this have been five-year-olds, set less than 11st. Germany Calling? No, I can see him running too freely in the ground.
Triumphant? Needs the ground to dry out and not well handicapped despite his position in the weights. Vice Et Vertu? Not a penny for him this morning.
Silsol needs the race, Exitas is up in the weights and and there may be too much cut for Bordoni. So this may rest with Home Run, who unluckily unseated last time and Hammersley Lake is better than the bare form, having been plagued with injuries.
2.05 Newcastle (Fighting Fifth Hurdle) While this was a Grade 2, in the good old bad old days, it was the big stepping-stone to the Champion Hurdle for the great stars, like Comedy of Errors, Sea Pigeon and Night Nurse.
Strangely, in recent years, as Grade 1 since 2004, it has had one or two placed in the Cheltenham championship- including My Tent Or Yours, second in March – but only one winner, Punjabi in 2008.
Though Willie Mullins struggles with chasers over here, his hurdlers do good, with 10-37 last season for a 27% strike rate.
Closely matched with Arctic Fire is Irving. Another who’s been back to schooling grounds, he would give Paul Nicholls his 100th Grade-1 success.
2.25 Newbury The big names of World Hurdling have picked this up on the way to Cheltenham: the likes of Baracouda, Inglis Drever, Big Buck’s. Great names. Great days.
If there’s one this year to lay claim to using this as a prep, that horse has to be More Of That, World Hurdle winner last March and 11lb clear of this field on official ratings.
RIDE THE RANGE ON INDIAN AND BUFFALO
2.40 Newcastle (Rehearsal Chase). Hey Big Spender has won it twice, at age eight and 10, in 2011 and 2013, and has carried today’s weight to victory in this already. That was at the age of eight and he’s 11 now but you can’t fault his prep run at Aintree, though he’d probably prefer a better surface.
Lie Forrit won that Aintree race, will love the soft going, and is still 12lb lower than his hurdles mark. Jumps well and has the Scottish National as his long-term target.
This is the northern King George for Nicky Richards, and he’s won two of the last seven. Tutchev has clearly been earmarked for the race today, a CD winner on heavy with a fair run back at Carlisle early in the month after 120 days’ off.
The negatives are that this Listed means he leaps two rungs up the ladder and his normal front-running style also leaves him vulnerable.
Broadway Buffalo, blinkered for the first time, is also likely to be at the fore and, like Lie Forrit, is well handicapped on his hurdles form (16lb lower, including the claim). The difference between them is he’s four years younger.
Vintage Star, runner-up in this last year, started 2014 a cracking second in the Peter Marsh, splitting Hennessy hopes Wychwoods Brook and Merry King, but he’s up on the weights for these placed efforts.
Indian Castle was second, albeit at a distance, to another Hennessy hope Many Clouds and beat Annacotty at Cheltenham in January. Loves the soft.
Victor’s Serenade bounced back to form at Chepstow in October but is a glass horse and cant be trusted to do a repeat.
I thought Indian Castle was going like a winner in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham in March. He has mixed it with some good horses and blew up only a couple of fences out in the big race at Cheltenham three weeks back. I took 7.0 on BETDAQ this morning and saved on Broadway Buffalo..
PLACE YOUR MONEY ON THE HENNESSY
3.00 Newbury (Hennessy Gold Cup, ABC Guide Thursday in the Archive) You could have knocked me over with Rishi’s racecard (learn your lines and stick it in yer pocket, lad!) when Triolo d’Alene went 80.0 on BETDAQ earlier this week, yet was then declared to run instead of Hadrian’s Approach.
I shall never fathom N Henderson (sometimes he, himself, admits to unfathomable decisions) but, if he can land back-to-back wins, Triolo – and the beaming Lambourn handler – will lay claim to the ranks of Fulke W alwyn (see 1.20 race).
In fact, Nicky is on a hat-trick, which would be his fourth win, against Walwyn’s mighty seven, which included two for the memorable Mandarin.
One Man, Playschool, Celestial Gold and Diamond Harry are recent opportunists, winning this off a low weight but, as in most handicaps these days, the trend is to quality at the top.
Ten of the last 13 winners have carried 10st 13lb or over and, unless it’s a bog out there, the winner should have youth and strong established form (seven of the last nine winners came off a mark of 145 or more).
Willie Mullins’ long losing run with chasers here continued yesterday. Djakadam has to be a lay, with only three chases under his belt, two if you disccount his fall at Cheltenham. This is tough for a five-year-old; in fact only two have even run in the decade.
Fingal Bay is also inexperienced over fences but his switch from hurdling was done ‘in no rush’ by a trainer who has had one of his best starts to the season and led the table until last weekend.
Smad Place has been over fences only four times but his CV contains an ingredient seen in six of the last nine winners: an RSA run last March, and a good one, too.
Alan King has left no sod untrodden in his bid for this, having sent the stayer Midnight Prayer and Smad Place to Newbury for a private workout last week.
Dom Alco, sire of such as Neptune Collonges, Silviniaco Conti and Al ferof, has won most of the top chases for Nicholls, and now Unioniste, who has had a breathing op but is still only six, looks ia real Grand national horse.
Rocky Creek, second in this last year, was fifth in the Grand National.He has also had abreathing op and wears a tongue tie first time. The Hennessy is more his race.
There’s a gift of a match bet on BETDAQ to my eyes, Rocky Creek to beat The Druid’s Nephew at 1.91. My order in is: Smad Place 1, Rocky Creek 2, Triolo d’Alene 3.
DAQMAN’S VALUE BETS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ morning offers, except Bull’s-Eye Bets to win 50, and others as stated)
BET 7.3pts win BROXBOURNE (12.20 Newbury)
BET 5pts win DUSHREMBRANDT (1.20 Newbury)
BET 9pts win HAMMERSLEY LAKE and 5pts win HOME RUN (1.50 Newbury)
BET 10pts win ARCTIC FIRE (2.05 Newcastle)
BANKER: BET 20pts win (nap) MORE OF THAT (2.25 Newbury) and 3 x 2pt MONEY-BOX doubles and 1pt treble More Of That with Broxbourne (12.20 Newbury) and Dushrembrandt (1.20 Newbury)
BULL’S-EYE BET 8pts win INDIAN CASTLE, and 1.5pts win (stakes saver) BROADWAY BUFFALO (2.40 Newcastle)
BULL’S-EYE BETS: 7.5pts win SMAD PLACE and 4.75pts win ROCKY CREEK (3.0 Newbury), already lost 1.8pts ante-post.
PLACE LAY (5pts) Djakadam (3.00 Newbury).
MATCH BET (10pts) Rocky Creek to beat The Druids Nephew at 1.91 (3.00 Newbury)
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