Cleveland Browns (7-4, 6-3-2 ATS) @ Buffalo Bills (6-5, 5-6 ATS)
*ATS= against the spread
BETDAQ Line: Buffalo -3.5 (42.5)
Significant Injuries
Cleveland: LB Jabaal Sheard (questionable– foot), TE Jordan Cameron (questionable– concussion), DT Ahtyba Rubin (questionable– back), LB Karlos Dansby (out– knee), S Tashaun Gipson (out– knee), WR Marlon Moore (out– hamstring)
Buffalo: TE Chris Gragg (out– knee), S Baccari Rambo (out– hamstring), DE Jarius Wynn (out– knee)
Recent Trends
Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in their last 5 road games
Cleveland is 3-7 ATS in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record
Buffalo is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games vs. AFC opponents
The favorite is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 meetings between these 2 teams
The UNDER is 5-0 in Cleveland’s last 5 games vs. AFC opponents
The UNDER is 6-1 in Cleveland’s last 7 games overall
The UNDER is 6-1 in Buffalo’s last 7 home games
The UNDER is 9-2 in Buffalo’s last 11 games overall
Three reasons to back Cleveland
1. Cleveland has been underestimated all season and it continues this week, as they’re a 3.5-point underdog to an inferior Buffalo team. The Bills have a worse record than the Browns, they haven’t done as well against the spread, and they’re a terrible home team, covering just once in their past 5 opportunities. The wrong team is favored here.
2. The Browns have a balanced offense that ranks 10th in total yards per game and has produced 21 points or more in 9 of 11 games this season. They’ve scored 50 combined points in their last two road games, both wins, and they hung 37 on Buffalo when these teams met last year.
3. The Cleveland defense has been excellent this season, surrendering just 19.9 points per game and not allowing any opponent to reach 30 points since Week 1. They should dominate the pedestrian Buffalo offense, a unit that ranks in the bottom-half of the league in every major statistical category and has produced 17 points or fewer six times this year.
Three reasons to back Buffalo
1. The Bills are coming off their best performance of the season, a 38-3 drubbing of the New York Jets, and they badly need a win this week to stay alive in the crowded AFC playoff race. Fortunately they’re facing the Browns, a team that’s really struggled over the past couple of weeks, getting dominated by Houston in Week 11 and squeaking out a 2-point win over a terrible Atlanta team last Sunday. Cleveland is simply not as good as their 7-4 record indicates and this week they’ll meet a quality team in a hostile environment. They’ll probably lose, and they’ll probably lose big.
2. Buffalo has one of the NFL’s best defenses, a unit that ranks 4th in yards allowed and 5th in points allowed. They’ve surrendered just 36 combined points in their last 3 home games, and this week they’ll face a Cleveland offense that has produced 26 points or fewer in 6 consecutive games and has only topped 30 points once all season. It will be a surprise if the Browns reach 20 points in this game.
3. Now that lead back Fred Jackson is healthy again the Buffalo offense can get back to doing what it does best: run the football. Considering that Cleveland has allowed more rushing yards this season than all but three teams leaguewide, it’s pretty safe to say that both Jackson and the Buffalo offensive line are excited for this matchup. Buffalo betters should be, as well.
Prediction
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