CHAMPION DAQMAN! 9-2 BANKER: Daqman claims double bragging rights for yesterday’s Champion Chase winner. He backed Dodging Bullets (WON 9-2) to win 40 points on BETDAQ ante-post then raised the stakes to banker status yesterday to win 58 more with another bet on the same horse at a value 6.8. On BETDAQ again, of course!
OVER THE MOON WITH 7-1 LEAD: Three more value winners on the day took his festival tally to 7-1 over Pricewise in two days of profit (overall score now Daqman 138, Pricewise 72). After four winners on Tuesday, his Wednesday hits were:
WON 13-8 Don Poli
WON 9-2 Dodging Bullets (banker nap)
WON 9-2 Moon Racer
ANTE-POST HAT-TRICK IN TWO DAYS: Daqman, who has landed three Cheltenham ante-post bets already – one at 44.0 – has another one running today. He faces Pricewise in every race.
POLI’S GOLDEN BOOST TO THE APACHE
1.30 Cheltenham (JLT – Golden Miller – Novices’ Chase): The high ratings say that we have a stronger renewal this year, with nine winners of 46 races, in which there is plenty of collateral form.
Valseur Lido came out some seven lengths in front of Apache Stronghold in their Drinmore one-two in November but Apache took his scalp at the same course on better ground on the last day.
Vautour, impressive Supreme Novice Hurdle winner last March, who then beat Apache for the Punchestown Champion Novice title last Spring, had an ‘easy’ in his most recent chase start after jumping errors saw him a beaten odds-on favourite over Christmas.
In the Dipper at Cheltenham on the first day of the year, Ptit Zig slammed by six lengths the horse that had beaten Colour Squadron in the Steel Plate and Sections in the autumn.
That’s why Ptit Zig, from yesterday’s hat-trick winning stable, is top of those official ratings, 12lb better than the 147 of last year’s winner.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: This will be fast and all about jumping, which is a worry if you back Apache Stronghold, Vautour or Irish Saint. And Ptit Zig, who needs some rain, would do well to come back in the championship arena after a fall on the last day.
This column is on Apache Stronghold ante-post at 7.4 on BETDAQ. He’s 7.0 this morning but should be shorter now that his Topaz conqueror, Don Poli, has won the RSA.
Has Apache improved past Valseur Lido or can that one bounce back to Fairyhouse form? It’s all down to who jumps best on the day but, since seven-year-olds have won three of the four JLTs, I’ll stick with what I’ve got, with a saver on the favourite Vautour, preferred by Ruby Walsh over Valseur Lido.
CALL THE COPS! A STEAL AT THE WEIGHTS
2.05 Cheltenham (Pertemps Final): The top six in the weights come with a warning notice: the stats say they will join 35 others off 143 or more to have failed in 14 years.
Yet to strike this week, Jonjo O’Neill has trained the winner of this three times this century, 25-1 and 50-1 the last twice, but Join The Clan has to be claimed off, now 17lb higher than his last winning mark.
A P McCoy prefers Regal Encore, whose step up to this trip brought an immediate reward in his qualifier at Exeter (which produced last year’s winner of this), with The Tourard Man, Big Easy, Knight Of Noir and last year’s second in this, Pineau De Re, all beaten off.
The handicapper was impressed – too much so for his chance here – and put up Regal Encore, giving The Tourard Man and Big Easy room to reverse the placings.
Jonjo fans will no doubt point out that he had the runner-up in that race, Alaivan (probable in the Martin Pipe on Friday), so he knows all about the form.
Edeymi (last year’s Fred Winter runner-up) wasn’t really put into the race and was was an eye-catching fourth in Dawalan’s qualifier at Musselburgh. Trainer Tony Martin’s string came good at the festival yesterday with Rivage d’Or.
Call The Cops also had a quiet run behind good-ground-dependent Brother Brian in the Kempton qualifier in the autumn but followed up well with success at Doncaster.
Bygones Sovereign is expected to take a big lead but I expect it will be byebyes at the business end, now badly in with Trustan Times stable companion Run Ructions Run and Aqalim (doubtful stayer). Trustan Times was fourth last year, 2lb higher.
Bygones is also expected to be giving way to his J P McManus stablemate Unique De Cotte, who is unexposed at the trip. In fact, he’s unexposed by any yardstick, having been seen in public only seven times (Call The Police just eight runs).
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: The handicapper has put up Call The Cops 12lb, which means it’s all systems go today off a notional 5lb penalty: 12.0 on BETDAQ early mouse.
The Stewards weren’t entirely happy about Edeymi’s run behind Dawalan at Musselburgh, but Tony Martin was.
The silverware at this meeting has gone to very few trainers so far, one of them David Pipe who has Unique De Cotte (big at 17.5) nicely in here for McManus, like Call the Cops unexposed off so few starts.
HEY DON.. THIS IS FOXROCK’S GOLD CUP!
2.40 Cheltenham (Ryanair Chase) Only Don Cossack and Wishfull Thinking (surely too old) have the ratings usually associated with the winner of this race.
Balder Succes has failed to complete in three visits to Cheltenham but this Tingle Creek fourth to Dodging Bullets is unbeaten (1111) when stepped up to 20 furlongs or so, culminating in Ascot Chase succes (sorry success) over Ma Filleule on the last day.
But, if the handicapper is right, he’s improved only 3lb since last Spring. Compare that with Don Cossack’s surge of a stone in the same period, including his own 1111 sequence in his last four starts.
This time the snags are that he fell at Cheltenham in last year’s RSA and his favourite track is Punchestown, which hardly sets him up for Cheltenham success (even over Succes).
Another massive improver is Foxrock, up 22lb since December. Winner of a Grade A handicap in January, he ran Friday’s Gold Cup fancy Carlingford Lough to less than a length last month in a race that ranks at the very top of the tree. Last year’s Gold Cup winner was third.
Three 10-year-olds have won it in the decade and ‘Shark’ Hanlon’s Hidden Cyclone, runner-up last year, was back to form on the last day, though I think his chance has gone.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: It’s a race to follow the money and there’ll no doubt be a gamble on 5.3 offer Don Cossack. Owned by the sponsor, and trained by Gordon ‘Cause Of Causes’ Elliott.
With a cloud over Balder Succes at Cheltenham, and his stable’s modest form at the festival this week (04F004), I’ll follow the Foxrock trajectory; he’s supplemented here, where his chance is more realistic than in the Gold Cup.
He’s surely ‘wrong’ at 10.0 on BETDAQ this morning. If Carlingford Lough had already been placed in the Gold Cup – which is highly likely on Friday – Foxrock would be nearly favourite here. Strong place claims at least (see bets).
TOUTING A NEW WORLD CHAMPION AT 12.0
3.20 Cheltenham (Ladbrokes World Hurdle) Big Buck’s and Inglis Drever were six-year-olds when they began their reign and, if there’s going to be a new sequence horse, here’s Saphir Du Rheu, top rated off 165, a pound in front of the year-older Whisper.
Whisper played second fiddle to Saphir twice last season and the Ditcheat contender beat Reve De Sivoia in the Cleeve Hurdle after that one edged out Zarkandar in the Long Walk. But there’s very little separating the three.
Lieutenant Colonel is also six. He did the winter Grade-1 double of Hattons Grace and Leopardstown Christmas Hurdle (beating Jetson both times), and his rating must be more like 153 than 135. What in the World’s going on!
Success here for Sandra Hughes would raise the roof of the grandstand, though her two festival runners so far have both failed to complete, and her horse was well beaten in the Neptune last March.
Of the old boys, At Fisher’s Cross, third last year, loves Cheltenham and may be returned to form by first-time blinkers, but Zaidpour needs some rain.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: I’ve been through the fancied horses twice and ended up returning to the Cleeve Hurdle, where Un Temps Pour Tout was nervously ridden to get the trip and not unduly punished after seven months off.
He left racereaders with the impression that he could turn the tables on Saphir Du Rheu and Reve De Sivola and, in a super-value 101% list in the BETDAQ orange, 12.0 looks big, with trainer David Pipe bullish.
I then dug further back and came up with a possible shock result: how about one only twice raced in England. He’s second giving weight to last year’s World Hurdle winner; then he runs up to Faugheen! The name is Blue Fashion, and he must be my second crack at a big place return today. Huge at 22.0 on BETDAQ.
JUST ONE GLANCE WILL SPOT THE WINNER
4.00 Cheltenham (Plate Handicap Chase) David Pipe has trained the winner three times in the last five years, and has managed to drop Monetaire into the bottom of the handicap after just two runs in England, one of them placed at Cheltenham over an inadequate trip.
After running against the likes of Don Cossack and Road To Riches, Jessican Harrington’s Burn And Turn must have an each-way chance. Jumps well.
Un Ace, Caid Du Berlais, Hunt Ball and Edgardo Sol have won or been placed at Cheltenham this winter.
Attaglance, winner of the 2012 Martin Pipe, was unlucky not to take the novices’ handicap on this card last season, beaten half a length when Brian Hughes had to stop riding.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Monetaire is not an easy horse to train and, having got him right, Team Pipe will be pressing the button here. Burn And Turn has a chance of a place at big odds.
But the one for me is Attaglance, who loves the track and ground and whose stable has had a fine run this season. Tasty 12.5 offers in the BETDAQ orange as I write. Yet again a 101% list. So value in the race; value in the horse. You can’t get better than that.
IT’S A GRAND FINALE FOR TEAM TIZZARD
4.40 Cheltenham (Kim Muir Chase) On form, the grey quartet of Gold Bullet, Masters Hill, Grand Vision and Sixty Something (first-time blinkers) should get one into a place at least.
Nine-year-olds have the best strike rate: Grandads Horse, Masters Hill, Grand Vision, Buddy Bolero, Vintage Star, Ericht, Sixty Something.
Four winners in five seasons have come from the narrow ratings band 137-142: Buddy Bolero, Gold Bullet, Clondaw Knight, Grand Vision, Guess Again, Just A Par, The Nephew and The Package.
DAQMAN’S VERDICT: Ireland broke a 31-year-duck last year and I shall stand by the home team and Colin Tizzard. He has two horses common to my stats groups for age, ratings and form assessment: 16.0 Grand Vision and 18.5 Masters Hill.
DAQMAN’S BETS
*BET (ante-post to win 30 points): 4.6pts win APACHE STRONGHOLD and 2.3pts win (stakes saver) VAUTOUR (1.30 Cheltenham)
*BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 5pts win EDEYMI, 4pts win CALL THE COPS and 3pts win UNIQUE DE COTTE (2.05 Cheltenham)
*BET (win 30) 7pts win DON COSSACK plus 3.3pts win and 6.7pts place FOXROCK (2.40 Cheltenham)
* BULL’S-EYE BET (win 50): 4.5pts win (nap) UN TEMPS POUR TOUT plus 2.3pts win and 7.7pts place BLUE FASHION (3.20 Cheltenham). Loss 6.9pts ante-post.
* BULL’S-EYE BETS (win 50): 6.5pts win MONETAIRE, 4.3pts win ATTAGLANCE, and 2pts win and 4pts place BURN AND TURN (4.00 Cheltenham)
BET (win 30): 2pts win and place GRAND VISION and 1.7pts win and place MASTERS HILL (4.40 Cheltenham)
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