FOLLOW THE FALLON FIGHT: Daqman reveals how and why Kieren Fallon could still be in at the finish of the jockey’s title race. Look out later in the week as our man assesses the big weekend attraction, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
They think it’s all over. ‘He won’t bother charging around the country much longer,’ I heard a sports-radio commentator insist on Sunday. He was talking about Kieren Fallon.
Fallon confounds that view with six rides at Ffos Las today. He has closed the gap. He’s riding slightly ‘better’ than Paul Hanagan, percentage wise but a lot better winners wise, with 14 to Hanagan’s eight in the last two weeks.
If they were to score at the same strike rate in the last six weeks, Fallon would win the title by six.
So any idea of Fallon dropping his hands seems plain wrong, though it still needs a couple of good days alongside Hanagan blanks to put Fallon single figures behind on the run-in to the bonfire of the vanities on November 5 (they are currently 136-124).
Upon unreliable horses depends the fate of the title: Fallon has recently been winning in Group races (two); Listed one; conditions one; class 3 one; class 4 one; class 5 five; class 6 three.
Cock o’the North Hanagan’s last-fortnight wins have come in Listed races (one); class 4 three; class 3 two; and class 5 two.
It’s that 8-2 score for Fallon in the lower echelons of class 5 and class 6 contests that gives him hope, for that’s the fare we can expect in the last few weeks, apart from a few featured meets, and they are predominantly in the South (Ascot, Newbury and Newmarket against one at Doncaster).
The other difference between now and then is that the number of meetings dwindles as the season draws to a close. That’s against Fallon.
Wagering wise (you know me by now), I don’t like to drop below class 4 for my bets, so there are just two races at Ffos Las that interest me.
Gobool (3.50) seemed to blow his first-time handicap chance but horses can be forgiven Chester failure and he should not be overlooked, with Fallon taking over for the first time.
West Brit will like the ground and, if ever Dare To Dance had that favourite’s chance in the Cambridgeshire before they pulled the plug, then the ‘Brit’ should bound away with this, as he was only dancing a length behind that one at Sandown.
Red Inca is another who didn’t like Chester and acts on soft but his Sandown win was in poor time, even allowing for the conditions.
Icebuster scooted clear of his field last time, also at Sandown and, since punters love a six-lengths winner, he’s the likely favourite.
But it’s quite a bonus that I can get 4.8 West Brit and that a place bet will get me 75% of my win stake back if he’s beaten into second or third.
Fallon has a fine chance on Qahriman (4.20) in the class-3 stayers’ race for a yard that does well at this time of year and is 33% with three-year-olds at Ffos Las.
With the trip a doubt for Rastaban, the worry at a big price is Oldrik, who wins when fresh (once after a year off). The 13.5 offers I grabbed this morning were big value at a time when Philip Hobbs has his beasts in gear again.
The best race at Hamilton (3.40) could be tactical, with only four left in on the soft ground. Dncaster Rover, Field Of Dream and Penitent (Hanagan) are all winners at Listed level but Secrecy had Field Of Dream a long way in arrear at Salisbury last month.
Front-runner Penitent (dam by Bishop Of Cashel) and Field Of Dream (dam by Selkirk) are soft-ground bred and it seems to be a question of whether Hanagan can get away from them or will set it up for the waiting trio.
If it’s true run, the race should be between the mile winners, Penitent and Secrecy, and I’ll go nap on Hanagan to kid them out of it.
The word at Bath is that the good handicap trainer, Clive Cox, is hopeful he has a good one for next year in Don’t Take Me Alive (3.00), a tasty 6.2 this morning for his first handicap. Wouldn’t want the ground to dry out too much.
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET: 3.8pts win DON’T TAKE ME ALIVE (3.00 Bath)
BET: 8.8pts win (nap) PENITENT (3.40 Hamilton)
BET: 5pts win and place WEST BRIT (3.50 Ffos Las).
BET: 1.6pts win and place OLDRIK and 1.3pts win (stakes saver) QAHRIMAN (4.20 Ffos Las).
