IT’S THE CLASSIC-TRIALS SEASON: Trials for three-year-old colts and fillies, with the Guineas and Derbys due in May and June, start today and continue all the week:
LEOPARDSTOWN: The 2,000 Guineas Trial has a well backed favourite today but the 1,000 test for fillies is more likely to produce a Classic winner.
NEWMARKET: While the colts appear in Listed races – the Free Handicap and the Gerry Feilden – Wednesday’s top trial at Newmarket is also for fillies, the Nell Gwyn Stakes.
NEWBURY: But the Dubai Duty Free Spring Trials Meeting may lure the top young colts and fillies for its prizemoney at the weekend.
HASSLE THE HUB OF 100-1 TREBLE BID: Daqman has two 7.0 bets, with the nap, Hassle, as the hub of mixed doubles and a near 100/1treble bid at Ffos Las and Market Rasen this afternoon.
CAUSE OF CAUSES FOR NEXT YEAR’S NATIONAL
Hindsight is the punters’ healer. The Grand National winner was there for all to see – if only we’d looked – ticking five of my ‘boxes’ in the Daqman see-how-they-run list yesterday. Stamina, class, a good weight, a trainer in form and the right jockey.
Yet we heard from Many Clouds trainer after the race that he didn’t want to run him; it was lucky owner Trevor Hemming’s idea, and Hemming’s third National winner it was.
No prizes for the losers but my 44.0 Cheltenham winner, Cause Of Causes, ran a race full of promise for next year, hunting round at the age of only seven to finish a running-on eighth.
I’d wanted Gordon Elliott to run him in the Irish National instead, and I still think he would have won at Fairyhouse, but Gordon can now say that ‘Causes’ gained valuable experience at Aintree and no harm done.
Ballycasey is another to take out of the race. We didn’t see much of him but, after he took to the fences well, Ruby Walsh felt confident enough to move him up into midfield. But he was brought down.
As for the Liverpool Hurdle, Whisper’s win was a bigger afterthought than Many Clouds switch from the Gold Cup. Whisper came back for a repeat win at Aintree over hurdles when he failed his chasing test on New Year’s Day.
So Cause Of Causes for next year’s Grand National. You read it here first.
ZAWRAQ THE TRIAL BET IN WELD TARGET RACE
2.40 Leopardstown (2,000 Guineas Trial) The powerful play goes on. Today’s the day we forget fences and four-milers, and turn to thoroughbreds and thoughts of the Derby. We switch dramatically to the very core of Flat racing.
Not that this so-called trial has much to do with the Guineas, or any other race: the last three winners have all failed to score again!
Dropped a notch from Group 3 to Listed level in 2013, it’s a race that Dermot Weld targets. His form figures in the decade are 134101.
Zawraq, whose family goes back to Nashwan on the dam’s side, came late to the two-year-old scene, winning so well in October that Dermot described him afterwards as ‘a proper horse; high class’. He was a strong market order this morning.
Aidan O’Brien tests the water with Jamaica, disappointing in the Acomb Stakes at York, and it’s offputting to see Parish Boy wearing a first-time hood.
3.15 Leopardstown (1,000 Guineas Trial) The fillies’ heat keeps its Group-3 status, and history tells us this is the right and proper. The race threw up Newmarket 1,000 Guineas winners, Virginia Waters, in 2005, and Homecoming Queen in 2012.
Last year, Ballydoyle’s Montjeu filly Bracelet went on to win the Ribblesdale at Royal Ascot and then the Irish Oaks.
In fact, Bracelet, Homecoming Queen and Virginia Waters were among six winners of this in the decade for Aidan O’Brien, who today fields Qualify and Toogoodtobetrue.
But, until they run, we simply don’t know which two-year-olds have trained on for a successful second season. And the market doesn’t always help (which means connections don’t know either).
None of those big three winners of O’Brien’s was favourite, and in fact only one outright jolly has won in the decade.
Another unknown today is which of these fillies with a 100+ rating can perform on soft ground. Sire’s progeny stats suggest it might be Legatissimo. It might be Qualify.
It certainly is Stormfly, winner of a handicap on heavy, but she’s rated only 95. It wasn’t Steip Amach or Toogoodtobetrue, on last year’s form.
3.50 Leopardstown (Ballysax Stakes) Ballydoyle, which won this recently (2009) with Irish Derby winner, Fame And Glory, has frightened off the opposition, and destroyed the market, by running John F Kennedy, the Epsom Derby favourite, in the race today.
CLASS-HORSE MOUNTAINOUS MASSIVE AT 7.6
2.45 Market Rasen So it is, with all the ponderables of three-year-old form that we are left searching for a nap among imponderable jumpers.
Hassle looks the best bet of the day on his form so far, and with the next horse in the betting winner of only a modest seller.
3.40 Ffos Las There are two class-3 contests at Ffos Las. In the chase (3.40), trainer Peter Bowen is in superb form, with four winners out of five still standing.
But his Buchaill Alainn failed to make this grade on the last day, whereas Farbreaga dominated a field at Newton Abbot, as he had done at Uttoxeter earlier in the year.
Red Devil Lads and Top Wood could still make the step up, particularly ‘the Devil’ at age only six and with Paul Townend staying on over here for three rides for Rebecca Curtis today, rides which would have been gifted to A P McCoy in the past.
The past tense should not be used about Mountainous. He’s down in grade here and down in the ratings to a weight 2lb below his last winning mark.
Mountainous is huge this morning at 7.6 on BETDAQ, with Red Devil Lads the obvious stakes saver.
4.10 Ffos Las Philip Hobbs landed a hat-trick yesterday, only to see Balthazar King take an unlucky early fall in the National. He expects to go close in the bumper (5.15 Ten Sixty) and Irish Buccaneer has a solid each-way chance in this.
But I fancy the new Curtis-Townend connection has an improver in the race, the 7.2 offer Golden Milan, which was never off the bit on today’s course in March.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9, banker 10).
BET 5pts win ZAWRAQ (2.40 Leopardstown)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) HASSLE (2.45 Market Rasen)
BET 6pts win MOUNTAINOUS and 2pts win (stakes saver) RED DEVIL LADS (3.40 Ffos Las)
BET 5pts win GOLDEN MILAN (4.10 Ffos Las)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 1pt win doubles and 1pt treble HASSLE (2.45 Market Rasen), MOUNTAINOUS (3.40 Ffos Las) and GOLDEN MILAN (4.10 Ffos Las)
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