6.4 NAP FOR BIG REDCAR GAMBLE: Though better than 5-1 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, there’s a strong case for ‘as tough a horse as you will find’ at Redcar this afternoon, says Daqman. He predicts that the 6.4 won’t last long.
ANOTHER FOR RED-HOT ROSEWELL: Daqman’s regular start-of-the-week preview features a Dermot Weld runner on Wednesday, and why not? The Rosewell stable is red hot and the horse isn’t a bad sort either! Fascinating stuff, it seems.
A FASCINATING RACE FOR ROSEWELL’S ROCK
Is it Rosewell or Roswell? Dermot Weld’s Rosewell House stables at The Curragh has the racing world amazed as his UFOs (Unfurnished Flying ’Orses) are landed in every corner of Ireland.
Unfurnished because mainly lightly-raced three-year-olds still growing into themselves, yet he has placed them so cleverly as part of a 14-winner spree, with those second-season animals scoring 13 of them and showing a 52% strike-rate.
A treble at Cork, a four-timer at Gowran Park (making up seven wins in a row), and then another four at Leopardstown yesterday. April reads more like Ballybrit in July.
And look out on Wednesday! Weld has seven entries at Leopardstown, including in one of his favourite races. His training skills will be tested to the full as he fields Fascinating Rock with top-weight in a race in which his Famous Name landed a hat-trick among a fabulous sequence of 21 wins and 13 places in 38 starts.
Fascinating Rock was a sequence horse himself at the start of last season with a hat-trick, two of them in Group 3 before attempting the Derbys of England and Ireland. Yet here he is on Wednesday in a Listed! That’s the fourth grade down the Pattern.
Incidentally Fascinating Rock was last year’s winner of the Ballysax (run at Navan), a race in which John F Kennedy failed to perform yesterday.
So it was that John F Kennedy lost pole position in the Epsom Derby and an earlier winner yesterday, Zawraq, in the 2,000 Guineas Trial, was cut to second favourite. Trainer? Dermot Weld.
FINN HAS THE CLASS YET WAS 6.4 ON BETDAQ
Bread-and-butter Flat-racing starts here. Will we have to suffer the butter spread too thinly, as over the Jumps, with far too many small-field races taking too much of the bread and the punter unable to get his betting teeth into them?
That’s a long question, but the short answer from Redcar today is: yes. The first three races are thin, unpalatable fare which, even added together, don’t make so much as a dog’s dinner.
3.50 Redcar The mile handicap has some jam on it. But, to mix my metaphors, at this time of year it’s caveat emptor when you try to choose a betting vehicle from the market place.
There’s been no winning favourite in the eight years since this race was introduced in 2006, and only two have scored with an SP shorter than 8-1.
Michael Dods farms the race, with form-figures since 2008 of 1011 (his wins at 8-1, 12-1 and 22-1) ,and at this time last year his Finn Class was running a good third in the Musselburgh Royal Mile, his first run of last season.
A ‘good third’ because class 2 and because he demonstrated that he clearly goes well fresh. Now 7lb below his mark that day and dropped to a class 4.
‘As tough a horse as you will find’ was how Luke Morris once described him, according to Racing Post racereaders.
Trainer Dods is currently in fine form with eight out of 12 in the first three, a trio of those being well-backed winners.
Since this race has been run in April, the winner by stall has been: 7, 7, 2, 1, 3 and 4. So I’m happy with the 5 draw for Finn Class, who was 6.4 this morning on BETDAQ after early-mouse support continued.
STATS BACK JOHNSTON RAIDER BEAVERBROOK
1.40 Windsor Would you take an unraced two-year-old filly against a colt at this time of year, even trained R Hannon?
The filly is Fit by name and presumably so physically, too, since trained by Hannon. But, on paper, her quality hardly matches that of Beaverbrook, a Cape Cross colt, related to Pattern winners on the dam’s side.
The stats are screaming for him. Mark Johnston is four from nine with juveniles this year, and Sivestre De Sousa is 75% (three from four) when taking Johnston rides, according to the trade paper.
2.10 Windsor The winning trainers in the first two years of this race were Roger Charlton and Team Hannon, both at good offers (5-1 and 6-1).
I thought they would supply the front two in the market with Sugar Lump (Hannon, who also saddles Be Bold) and Acolyte (first run gelded for Charlton).
But, with bookmaker and exchange alike, there’s a new jolly this morning in Rio Ronaldo, with Ryan Moore booked.
Could it be that connections (he’s owned by The Castaways) have slipped the moorings on their bank accounts and gone overboard to try to retrieve losses from a gamble at Lingfield on the last day, when Rio was only fourth, dropped back to 5f after his Wolver win over today’s six.
The market didn’t speak at Lingfield and what it tells me now is: oppose this favourite, who is making you a price for something else. But what?
Roger Charlton is two from three but, like Rio Ronaldo, Acolyte has won only on AW. Be Bold has scored only on the soft, so there is a question-mark over today’s drying ground.
So I’ll say Sugar Lump, who very much needed to grow into his frame last year and was wisely given a long break after scoring at Salisbury (winners behind him). Should be better furnished now and goes well fresh.
4.10 Windsor Ryan Moore will be a moveable feast for punters, with his new commitment to Ballydoyle, but here at Windsor continues the work of testing Sir Michael Stoute’s three-year-olds.
Moore stays on to ride Asima, who returns to a mile today and could be given her head from stall 2.
Though she has a bigger field to boss than she had when she scored at Lingfield in January, it’s a very short handicap (6lb between top and bottom).
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9, banker 10)
BET 6pts win BEAVERBROOK (1.40 Windsor)
LAY 5pts RIO RONALDO and BET 5pts win SUGAR LUMP (2.10 Windsor)
BET 8pts win (nap) FINN CLASS (3.50 Redcar)
BET 5pts win ASIMA (4.10 Windsor)
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