It’s been a memorable fortnight at the All England Club, and it’s not over yet– in a matter of hours we’ll see Serena Williams chasing history against young Garbine Muguruza, while tomorrow it’s Legend vs. Legend as defending champion Novak Djokovic takes on the great Roger Federer in a rematch of last year’s final. BETDAQ has several markets for both matches, of course, so there’s plenty of opportunity to get involved. Here are my thoughts:
Serena Williams (1.2) vs. Garbine Muguruza (5.9)
This is your quintessential David and Goliath matchup, an all-time great who is in the midst of a career-best run versus a wide-eyed 21-year old whose only experience with a Grand Slam final has been as a spectator. In this case, though, David has triumphed over Goliath before: Muguruza dominated Williams 6-2, 6-2 in the second round of last year’s French Open, showing the type of power and aggression that has been Serena’s hallmark throughout most of her career. The question, of course, is whether she can replicate such a performance on the most pressure-packed stage in all of tennis. Williams doesn’t rattle at this point in her career– every time someone seems to have her on the ropes, she just turns it on and pulls through. If Muguruza’s going to win, she’s going to have to earn it with clean, aggressive tennis and plenty of winners. Can she do it (again)?
The answer, of course, is probably not. Serena is a prohibitive favorite here for a reason; a Muguruza victory would truly be a historic upset. I really like the young Spaniard, though, and Williams is prone to dropping a set every now and again. I won’t be surprised if Muguruza gets off to a good start, but I just can’t see her finishing the job. Recommendation: Williams at 1.2, Williams 2-1 (sets) at 4.5
Novak Djokovic (1.81) vs. Roger Federer (2.18)
It doesn’t get much better than this, does it? The most decorated champion to ever grace Centre Court, Roger Federer, will face the man who’s indisputably the best in the world today, Serbia’s Novak Djokovic. It’s a rematch of last year’s final, which was won by Djokovic in five dramatic sets. There are a few fascinating things in play here: Federer, as great as he has been in his declining years, hasn’t won a Grand Slam since 2012, but he seems to be playing near-peak tennis. This is surely the last time we’ll see him at this level, with both shotmaking ability and athleticism nearly fully intact… right??? A win would give him a record 8 Wimbledon titles, one more than Pete Sampras.
As for Djokovic, he’ll be looking for a bit of redemption after an unexpected loss to Stan Wawrinka in the French Open final. Djokovic had zipped through that tournament much like he has gone through the draw at Wimbledon– with very little stress– but he seemed like a different player on the day of the final, a step slower and just generally out of rhythm. And, unfortunately, that seems to be a recurring problem for the Djoker, as he’s now lost 6 of his last 9 Grand Slam finals.
So… are we going to see Federer make history? It’s the sappy, sentimental pick for sure, but taking all things into consideration– Federer’s recent form, Djokovic’s struggles in Grand Slam finals, last year’s thrilling 5-set match that could’ve gone either way– it certainly seems possible. As for me, though, I think I’ll take my chances with the better player. Djokovic will get his redemption after the gutting loss in the French, but it won’t come without some nervous moments. Recommendation: Djokovic at 1.81, Djokovic 3-2 (sets) at 5.5
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