DAQMAN HEADLINE OF THE DAY: Daqman headlined yesterday’s easy Leicester winner, Justice Day (WON 5-4), and now bids for back-to-back ABC-guide headings.
* THE DAY JUSTICE SHOULD BE SEEN TO BE WON
THE BIG VALUE CELEBRATION: His last ABC analysis was for the Celebration Mile last Saturday week, when he named Kodi Bear (WON 4-5) as a 3-1 offer three days before the race:
* KODI BEAR PUNTERS EXPECT CELEBRATION
HERE’S THE ST LEGER ABC GUIDE: Can he do it again with today’s horses-by-horse guide to Saturday’s St Leger at Doncaster?
LEGER SET TO BE BALLYDOYLE BEACH PARTY
3.45 Doncaster, Saturday (Ladbrokes St Leger): Storm The Stars, placed in two Derbys, now stands in the way of a 1-2-3 in the St Leger for Ballydoyle, if my ABC guide is anything to go by.
It would be a fifth Leger triumph for Aidan O’Brien this century, following Milan, Brian Boru, Scorpion and, in 2013, Leading Light.
A First or second in a Group race (11 out of 11)
B Winner between 1m 2f and 1m 4f (10 out of 11)
C Sire stamina index 10.9+ or finished in a Derby first two (10 out of 11)
D Placed in the Epsom/Curragh Derbys, Gordon Stakes or Great Voltigeur.
E Rated 109, 110, 111 (two), 112 (two) and 113 (seven years out of 8)
F Trained Aidan O’Brien or John Gosden.
ABCDF Bondi Beach
This son of Galileo did not see a racecourse until May and has only four outings on his CV, the last two the most significant.
He tenaciously beat Order Of St George in the Curragh Cup (1m 6f) in June before running Storm The Stars to half a length, dropped back a quarter of a mile in last month’s Great Voltigeur, most notable trial for this race over the years.
Bondi Beach was 4.0 on BETDAQ this morning, second favourite behind Storm The Stars. The 4.1 offers Order Of St George was a full point in front of some bookmakers.
ABCD Storm The Stars
Out of the first three only once in 10 starts, he has improved race by race from his 89 rating when second in the Chester Vase to the 114 he was given after beating Bondi Beach narrowly in the Great Voltigeur.
In between, he was third in the Epsom Derby to Golden Horn and second in the Irish Derby to Jack Hobbs, in what his trainer calls a ‘fabulous year’, though expressing reservations about the Leger distance and whether the colt might now be ‘over the top.’
ABCE Order Of St George
His narrow defeat by Bondi Beach in the Curragh Cup was his first run of the season, before what was described as ‘no more than a public gallop for the St Leger’ when winning on firm ground at Down Royal in July.
He then stepped into the ring for a real Leger trial – the Irish St Leger Trial – this time on the soft, storming clear of a small field which included the Ascot Gold Cup runner-up, beaten off in third.
ABCF Fields Of Athenry
The third Galileo in this, after Bondi Beach and Order Of St George, but it’s never wise to rely on the Ballydoyle pecking order as gospel.
Back–to-back success at Leopardstown in the summer, one by 10 lengths in a Listed, the second a Group 3, before trying to outrun older horses in the Ebor, fifth despite a big weight for his age.
ABC Simple Verse
She would become the first filly to win since User Friendly, who scored in 1992, seven years after Oh So Sharp became the last of her sex to take the fillies ‘triple crown’ of 1,000 Guineas, Oaks and St Leger.
Still a maiden in April, and a handicapper in June (she won the Bibury Cup), but took a big leap forward by winning the Group-3 Lillie Langtry Stakes at Goodwood. A similar further leap is required here.
BC Vengeur Masque
By Monsun, sire of Novelist, Shirocco and Stacelita, his dam’s side is stamina-packed, and the 1m 4f of his Group-3 fourth at Deauville showed him a bit short on class and speed but likely to improve for the longer trip.
B Medrano
A nearly horse who has raced 12 times, including third in the Chester Vase. His Gordon Stakes fourth and Great Voltigeur fifth suggest he remains just short of top class, and not certain to get the Leger trip.
B Proposed
Broke his maiden in May but out of the frame, unfancied at 33-1, at Royal Ascot and then Goodwood (Gordon Stakes). Disappointing again, dropped to handicap company, on the last day.
FERRYOVER LOOKS A LEAGUE ABOVE THIS LOT
2.00 Doncaster This is always a top-class nursery, with Group form represented, as here with Ferryover having run second at York to Tasleet, runner-up to Shalaa in the Richmond Stakes.
Since Shalaa is rated 120 and Tasleet 109, the 91 for Ferryover looks exceptionally lenient: I took 4.9 on BETDAQ this morning.
Handicap debutant Lord Kelvin, from the Charles Hills’ team, could be dangerous off his light weight, but is friendless at 14.0 as I write.
The market leader this morning was Team Hannon’s Tidal Wave. By Canford Cliffs, and an entry in the Dewhurst and the Racing Post Trophy, should go close.
2.30 Doncaster Charles Hills would like the Shalaa form confirmed here by his own Elronaq, third and fifth to that one in the Richmond Stakes and then the July Stakes.
Venturous, a sprinter pure and simple, and the Richard Hannon pair, Madrinho and Storm Rising, cannot be discounted, the Hannons having won the race three times since 2008.
3.00 Doncaster In equine terms, some of these are older than the riders in the Legends race! Horses aged five and under have won eight out of 10, and the big-sprint results suggest that the three-year-olds are a very fast pack this year.
So I would definitely check out Cotai Glory and Touchline, and the two-year-old 20.0-offer Field Of Vision has a better shout than the price suggests, Super Sprint placed and hampered in the Molecomb.
The ground will suit Desert Law but Cotai Glory drops down three grades after the Nunthorpe, in which he was on the wrong side.
GANNICUS TO GET LEGEND WIN FOR McCOY
3.35 Doncaster (Leger Legends) Tony McCoy v Johnny Murtagh. Michael Hills v Kevin Darley. Gay Kelleway against Kim Tinkler. The match races in this look hard to fathom and loaded with great memories of the past. But try finding the overall winner!
The stats say that young horses win the day – four four-year-olds and a three-year-old so far – and that all bar one (a 12-1 shot at SP) have been well fancied, between 4-1 and 8-1. Gannicus?
It would be yet another fairytale for champion of champions, Tony McCoy. Gannicus has only ever won in small fields but is well drawn in stall 7, with 1-8 having won four of the five renewals.
Murtagh’s mount, Commissar, has raced in class 3. Can spoil his chances with unruly starts but is also well drawn in gate 4.
‘The Johnston’, Regal Ways, looks likely to take them along from 8, joined early by Fidelma Moon, who both offer chances of an early position for a trade at 16.5 and 13.5 respectively, as I write.
But the stats suggest Gannicus and the maiden Swordbearer under Gay Kelleway, who last rode a winner under Rules in 1992. I’ll take McCoy.
4.45 Doncaster With no winners of this above 9st, and two of those below that mark today aged nine and 11, we are left with a short-list of seven.
Of these, Space Artist, Money Team and Bashiba are with stables currently out of form.
I fancy Innocently to bounce back, now a pound below his winning rating of last year at Ripon and, in his six races since, has been in class 2 and 3 four times, so could well be disguised here.
‘He likes to pop out and get on with it,’ says trainer David O’Meara, who puts up a claimer. From the 1 draw, with cheekpieces applied, Innocently could be overpriced (16.0 offers on BETDAQ early mouse).
DAQMAN’S BETS (each bet staked to win 20 points)
BET 5pts win (nap) FERRYOVER (2.00 Doncaster)
BET 10pts win ELRONAQ (2.30 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win COTAI GLORY, and 1pt win and place FIELD OF VISION (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 6pts win GANNICUS (3.35 Doncaster)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 1.3pts win and place INNOCENTLY (4.45 Doncaster)
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