NAPS NOW FOUR OUT OF FIVE: Daqman was out of luck yesterday when his nap finished second, after being buffeted and blocked off at a vital stage of the race, and then his outsider met a similar fate, second at 6-1 (from 9.8 on BETDAQ). Both were beaten less than a length. That ends his unbeaten naps sequence at four, and his bankers at seven out of nine.
AYR LUCKY SEVEN AMONG 245: Daqman today allows the stats to pinstick the huge entry for the Ayr Gold Cup on Saturday (he brings 245 down to seven!) and reckons the Beresford Stakes is next for one of the hot Ballydoyle two-year-olds, Landofhopeandglory.
THESE ARE THE STATS THAT HELP FIND GOLD
It’s never as bad as it seems. Saturday’s Ayr Gold Cup has 245 entries but only 26 or 27 horses will line up.
The stats say that a winner over the age of six is as rare as 35-1, and three-year-olds win only once in 20-odd years. One carrying more than 9st 4lb is 12-1 against, based on the results since 1980.
Only three times this century has the prize been won outside Yorkshire, and only twice in 24 years has the winner’s SP been bigger than 20-1.
So, of those at the hub of the handicap, already figuring in the markets, you’re looking for one aged four, five or six, 8st 6lb to 9st 4lb, trained in Yorkshire.
In the group that tick the boxes, Rivellino, Sound Advice, Pipers Note, Aetna, Red Pike, Algar Lad and Don’t Touch may contain the winner. Good luck in your search!
LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY IS BERESFORD BOUND
Aidan O’Brien has mud on his face. On the first of the month, I gave you six two-year-olds to follow. Five have been thereabouts but we needed a final kick from number six yesterday.
However, Listowel was abandoned and the horse saddled with putting the list into the black, O’Brien’s Landofhopeandglory, was unable to run in the nursery.
That is much more serious than it seems. Aidan O’Brien was desperate to get another run into ‘Glory’ before the season of major two-year-old trials begins, and was even prepared to take in the nursery in the mud, had the meeting survived.
‘Glory’ is entered in just about every top two-year-old test you can think of: Royal Lodge, Beresford, Tattersalls Millions, Dewhurst, Racing Post Trophy, you name it.
And O’Brien felt that the colt had to gain experience for his chosen task in those top-line heats; the son of High Chaparral has had just the one run, one win.
Landofhopeandglory now seems certain to run in the Beresford Stakes at The Curragh on Sunday week, which would give him two weeks before the Dewhurst or a month off prior to the Racing Post Trophy.
This is the list of the runners so far in my (not so) Lucky Six, published September 1, which shows that we needed ‘Glory’ to run and win at Listowel as much as Aidan did!
But all five have acquitted themselves well and will surely win more races..
2ND 7-4 JUSTICE LAW (September 3)
WON 9-5 CLOTH OF STARS (September 9)
2ND 10-3 LINGUISTIC (September 10)
2ND 5-2 HERALD THE DAWN (September 13)
4TH 7-2 TANAZA (September 13)
NR LANDOFHOPEANDGLORY (September 14)
EASY TASK FOR MUSIC MASTER
There are two notable races today. Both at Yarmouth and they take place one after another.
At 3.50, despite the small field, there is quite a competitive Handicap over a mile and 3.5 furlongs. A lot hinges on the ground with a couple of them. Both Sealife and Perceus would prefer a little rain overnight.
Star Storm appears to go on most ground but has only just managed to get his head in front in a Haydock maiden. That was at the sixth time of asking and he did it quite well. His previous runs were behind decent sorts like Koora, Medrano and Proposed.
Winter Serenade on the other hand, wants little or no rain and if the ground stays quick, she has a lot to offer from a mark of 81. She won well last time out in a Handicap at Leicester and, although this is a slight step up in class, she’s going the right way and looks unexposed.
The following race has been made easier with the defection of Hallelujah. Music Master is the only one I can see winning this.
He runs in most of the big sprint races and although he didn’t run to form in the Nunthorpe, this is so much easier and he’s very well treated at the weights. He’s a Banker.
WATCH FOR THE SHOOTINGSTA(R)
Three more selections. At Chepstow, the 3.40, a handicap over seven furlongs, looks the pick on the card.
One catches the eye here and that is Peak Storm for John O’Shea and Luke Morris. He is something of a course specialist with seven of his eight wins at the Welsh track. He also numerous placed runs there including last time out over a mile.
Dropping back to seven furlongs shouldn’t pose any issues for the gelding and off the same mark as last time he is likely to be a big threat.
A little later at Catterick, Shamaheart has caught my eye at 4.30. Although he’s probably more effective over a mile, he has won over seven previously. A strong early would suit best and with eight of these that are likely to be prominent, this should be a strongly run race.
Off a mark of 69, just three more than his last winning mark, the handicap appears to have given a little leeway following a third place last time. Shamaheart is too big a price at 11.5 on BETDAQ this morning.
Finally, at Carlisle, Shootingsta is the pick at 6.45 in a competitive sprint handicap, just under seven furlongs.
The team of Mulrennan and Smart is generally a strong one and this son of Fast Company has some creditable runs this season behind the likes of Akeed Champion and Dawn’s Early Light. This is probably the easiest task he’s been set since winning a Class 5 Maiden at Redcar in May but he seems to have imropved since then and he looks the one to beat.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 4pts win PEAK STORM (3.40 Chepstow)
BET 4pts win WINTER SERENADE (3.50 Yarmouth)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) MUSIC MASTER (4.20 Yarmouth)
BET 2pts win and place SHAMAHEART (4.30 Catterick)
BET 4pts win SHOOTINGSTA (6.45 Carlisle)
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