17.0 AND 18.5 OUTSIDERS TODAY: Daqman delves among the stats and draw bias, hoping for some big-odds winners today. He took offers of 10.0, 17.0 and 18.5 at the northern meetings, Ayr and Pontefract.
BRONZE SPRINT CUP TOMORROW: Look out tomorrow for the Bronze leg of the Ayr Gold Cup divided handicap, plus top two-year-old tests, the Harry Rosebery Stakes there, and the Haynes, Hanson and Clark at Newbury
DON’T LET VALUE GET AWAY: KEEP YOUR DAQ UP
Keep your Daq up! Bets go begging, if you don’t follow the market at least until the ‘off’, and particularly when the weather changes and the ground deteriorates.
Yesterday Elm Park, third to two Derby winners in the Dante, was trading at an amazing 4-6, and even the SP of 4-7 was a gift.
Yes, I know, I laid the horse in my column. Unfortunately, there were two races: the one being run over my cornflakes had Elm Park at a no-value 1-3 against an improver I’d been told to follow. Going: good, good to soft at worse.
But the actual race run at 3.20 was on soft ground, with three non-runners, including the defection of the big improver. Yet Elm Park could be had for 4-6.
As for Yarmouth, what chance does the punter have if they try to run races on ground which isn’t fit for purpose.
Listowel? Which was worse for the punter, a Kerry National run 17 seconds slow or with a take-out of 34% by the bookmakers (134 SP Total)?
BETDAQ to the rescue again! It didn’t help me beat the mud but it did help me beat the bookies. Which I means I win in the long run.
STATS SAY GO INTO THE FRAY AT AYR AT 10.0
1.50 Ayr Keep your Daq up! This time, you’re watching for draw bias, as the races develop.
If you’ve wondered why I use the stats a lot, the answer is I’m looking for an edge, and only have past results to help me at breakfast time.
Again, I’m told that conditions are ‘good to soft’ but with ‘rain later’. Later than when? Only the punter knows just how frustratingly imprecise is weather forecasting!
There seems to be an edge here from the age of winners: four-year-olds win 7 out of 10. And from the draw: going way back, stalls 3-through-8 win every time.
It might be worth a pound on Fray at 10.0, dual winner for Roger Charlton before moving to Jim Goldie.
Fray is a hidden horse. Denied a clear run at Doncaster; broke blood-vessels at Redcar; had an easy at Ascot to see if an op to cure the problem had worked. All three of these races were in a grade higher than today’s.
Khareer makes the long haul from Lambourn, as the unexposed horse of the race and 4.1 this morning looked about right for his chances.
4.35 Ayr (Kilkerran Cup) Stalls 1, 2 and 4 have won four out of six with, again, no double-figure winners going way back, albeit, some of the fields were smaller.
Three-year-olds have done well, with best results in eight years of 114231, and Jolievitesse, absent most of the season, is returning now after being gelded. BETDAQ offers of 17.0 this morning.
The other three-year-old, Salieris Mass (6.8), is unexposed but comes out of stall 13, and is unlikely to play the usual Johnston catch-me game from that position. However, he does stay well and could be involved in the finish.
Imshivalla hasn’t looked straightforward this season and needed a drop in class to get off the mark; Gworn is stuck in class 3, too; whole Modernism needs the going on top.
Latenightrequest, a slow-surface performer, has taken time to come to herself this year and, like Gworn, has drifted to 18.0 plus this morning, right over the betting weir.
GUISHAN HARD TO BEAT WHEN SHE IS IN FORM
2.45 Pontefract This race and the sprint (3.50) go to single-figure stalls and low numbers nine times out of 10.
Ahoy There got a poor draw at Newcastle, is lightly raced and value at 18.5. Stall 3 and goes well on an easy surface. As a potential front-runner, this is an obvious trade horse.
3.50 Pontefract Strictly at the weights, with Rachel Richardson’s claim, Cadeaux Power should avenge her Hamilton defeat by Guishan.
But Guishan (a tempting 6.0 this morning) was coming back to form in that race and rattled up a hat-trick last season.
Cadeaux Power, Pretty Bubbles, Snow Cloud and Spiraea tend to be bridesmaids, hard to win with, placed more than 20 times all told for just the odd win between them.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9; a banker would be 10)
BET 1pt win and place AHOY THERE (2.45 Pontefract)
HIDDEN HORSE: BET 2pts win FRAY, plus 6pts win KHAREER (both 2.50 Ayr)
BET 4pts win (nap) GUISHAN (3.50 Pontefract)
BET 3pts win SALIERIS MASS, and 1pt win and place JOLIEVITESSE (4.35 Ayr)
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