4-1 NAP AND 203 POINTS PROFIT: Daqman dares and Daqman wins. He napped an unraced colt, Idaho (WON 4-1), to take the final two-year-old race of the 2015 season at The Curragh yesterday, and completed a 54-1 double with a 10-1 winner at Leicester. Profit on the day 203 points from:
WON 10-1 Demora
WON 4-1 Idaho (nap)
4 NAPS OUT OF 5 FOR 173 POINTS: Idaho gave him a second 4-1 nap up in four days, and a total of four out of five best bets in the bag for 173 points profit since Friday (to 20-point level stakes), bringing his naps haul to 14 from the last 19:
WON 5-6 Quiet Reflection (banker)
WON 4-1 Gifted Master
WON 5-6 Best In The World (banker)
2ND 5-1 Mark Hopkins
WON 4-1 Idaho
CHAMPION STAKES IS A STINKER FOR O’BRIEN
Sail in on the QE11. That’s the advice from the market returns of the last decade on Champions Day: only the Queen Elizabeth 11 Stakes (2.30) is the punter’s friend at Ascot on Saturday.
Every year without fail, the winner comes from the first three in the final betting (maximum 5-1), though only four winners have gone off favourite at SP.
How do you know which favourite to ignore or lay, and which ones to back? Answer: if they’re odds on, they usually win; if not, oppose them.
Favourites landed four in a row in the opening Long Distance Cup but be warned that shock results (two at 20-1) came when the going was soft.
Ditto the Fillies and Mares championship: all well fancied except the last two seasons when soft ground turned up 12-1 and 16-1 winners.
The soft surface in 2014 also played into the hands of Noble Mission, whose form with give in the ground before the race was 2112231411112. How could you miss it!
How’s this for soft-ground form among contenders for the same race on Saturday: 11101 Lady Tiana, 111 Madame Chiang, 111 Bocca Baciata, 32112 Candarliya. No wonder connections of the favourites are hoping the ground dries up.
Recent shocks in the Champion Stakes (3.05) – winners at 24-1, 14-1 and 12-1 – have not specifically been down to the ground. But all three of them came when there was a short-priced Ballydoyle favourite.
In fact, it’s always been a stinker of a race for Aidan O’Brien, whose Derby winner Ruler Of The World was only third in 2013 and was then stone last as a four-year-old in 2014.
So You Think (7-4 favourite, 2011), Fame And Glory (6-4 favourite 2009), Eagle Mountain (2007) and Oratorio (9-4 favourite, 2005) also got stuffed, though all linied up strongly fancied in the market.
This seems to diminish the chances of Found on Saturday. My fifth lay on the trot? We’ll see.
DOLORES LOOKS DELIGHTFUL IN WORCESTER
WORCESTER The opening Novices Handicap Chase could be anything. There are some nice sorts in here with decent form over hurdles and several making their debut over the larger obstacles.
Bob Tucker has the most experience by far but has too many seconds and thirds to have any confidence in him at this stage. Despite the good form of the Longsdon yard at present, I couldn’t touch this fella as he looks to very much a nearly horse.
Free of Charge is another with some decent bits and pieces of hurdles form but most came in weak races and getting put up three pounds for finishing second is never ideal.
I’m finding hard to avoid Dolores Delightful who was well rated at 120 over hurdles at the end of last season and ran in some good Novice events including when she was third behind the very useful Tara Point. In 9 runs in the UK and France, she was only outside the first four twice. She shapes as if Chasing will be her game and the step up to two miles and seven furlongs shouldn’t pose an issue either.
A little later at 4.35, a previous winning Nap, Kayla heads the Handicap Hurdle over two miles and seven again.
She’s a Bumper winner and was a ready winner last time out, albeit in a weak race, but she did it with a sense of purpose that she can improve for the run. Her opening mark of 103 is not too harsh in my eyes but Ciaran Gethings takes a valuable seven pounds off that could give him a third winner in the last 8 days.
I would also suggest to close the gap slightly and avail of 2% Commission on BETDAQ by offering 6.6 as opposed to the 6.2 on offer at time of writing.
WETHERBY Southfield Royale gets introduced over fences at 2.40. Neil Mulholland has probably picked a tricky race for him to have his debut with Spirit of Shankly and The Grey Taylor also in.
All three were rated similarly over Hurdles but Southfield Royale stands out to me as the one with the most potential over Fences. He didn’t go to Cheltenham having not qualified for the Pertemps final but that may now be in his favour as that was a tough race. He won subsequently in a Novice event at Huntingdon.
While Spirit Of Shankly and The Grey Taylor pose tough threats to Noel Fehily’s mount, Southfield Royale should have the required improvement to win. He never jumped like a hurdler and appeared to always be a Chaser in the making.
Also at Wetherby, the 4.25 is a competitive race. L’Aigle Royal will be interesting to see for John Quinn and Richard Johnson. Although he ran well on his penultimate start in a Grade 3 Novice event at Sandown, he pulled up at the same track next time. I won’t be holding that against him but there may be one less exposed down in the weights.
Crazy Jack seems to be the best value in the race. He won quite readily last time out at Worcester, beating Mustmeetalady, who runs earlier on the card. She’s well regarded in the O’Neill yard.
Crazy Jack has proved equally adept over hurdles as he is over fences and the 7.6 on offer on BETDAQ this morning looks far too big.
NOTTINGHAM With the evenings closing in, there are less flat meetings and I have only one flat selection today.
At 4.10, I’m looking to the Each Way market for a bet on the Hannon horse, Tom Hark. He’s currently showing 13.5 to back and I’m not too afraid to ask for a little more as he shows 17 in the Win market. Meet just underway halfway and seek 14.5 in the Each Way market.
He’s a front runner and been placed in his last two runs. The ground won’t be an issue for him as he’s been placed on similar ground as today in better class races. This may be the right race for him and I think he should be placed at least.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9 points on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 4pts win DOLORES DELIGHTFUL (2.20 Worcester)
BET 8pts win (nap) SOUTHFIELD ROYALE (2.40 Wetherby)
BET 2pts win and place TOM HARK (4.10 Nottingham)
BET 2pts win and place CRAZY JACK (4.25 Wetherby)
BET 4pts win KAYLA (4.35 Worcester)
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