FOUR NAPS IN A ROW AGAIN! With Nearly Caught yesterday, Daqman made it four consecutive naps for the third time in a sequence of 18 best bets up out of the last 24, including nine bankers in a row, seven hat-tricks and two winners at 4-1:
WON 1-4 Don Cossack (gold banker)
WON 11-10 Barton Antix (nap)
WON 11-10 Solow (banker)
WON 2-5 Nearly Caught (nap)
THREE BETS UP OUT OF THREE: On the day yesterday, Daqman landed three winning bets out of three on BETDAQ, recorded here at SP:
2ND 3-1 Shinelikeadiamond (place)
WON 13-8 Thanksfortellingme
WON 2-5 Nearly Caught (nap)
HOT SPOTS FOR FRIDAY BETDAQ RACE: Look out on Friday for a BETDAQ-sponsored race that looks sorted for the hot three-year-olds. Today Daqman points out some surprising facts about the favourites, and naps at Windsor at around 4-1 tonight.
WEIGHT FOR IT! BETDAQ RACE IS PUNTER’S DREAM
4.20 Doncaster, Friday (Betdaq.com £50 In Free Bets Handicap) Three-year-olds are four in a few weeks’ time, and many have already beaten their elders. Yet they are still getting huge weight allowances in certain races.
The Classic generation is reckoned the equal, or within a pound, of older horses in sprints from this month. But over longer distances, they are still seen to be at a disadvantage, even though race results prove otherwise and, amazingly, punters still bet against them.
One of Friday’s BETDAQ-sponsored races on Town Moor is a good example. Three-year-olds get 9lb minimum from older horses over this 1m 6f, and in many cases much more because of winners’ penalties.
No wonder, then, that this handicap has been won nine years out of 10 by three-year-olds trained by the usual suspects among shrewdies: Andrew Balding, John Gosden, Mark Johnston and Ralph Beckett.
But all down the years punters have ignored the obvious trend, like last year when they made a four-year-old favourite and Balding won it with a 15-2 shot, aged – yes, you guessed it – three.
And previous three-year-old winners in the decade have started 33-1, 20-1 (twice), 8-1, 15-2, 7-1 and 11-2.
Because of such prices, in some years you’ve been able to bet all the three-year-olds in the race and won money!
Likely to be laughing little apples at their handicapping luck on Friday is one of these trainers: Mark Johnston again (Donna Graciosa), Ralph Beckett again (Magic Circle), Charles Hills (Soul Searcher), John Quinn (Hubertas) and John Best (Revision).
Incredibly, the bottommost of their quintet of three-year-olds is getting between 11lb and 33lb from older opponents in the race as it stands today.
HOT SPOTS: Yet, in a golden year for the Classic generation, three of the five – Magic Circle, racing off 8st 2lb, Revision on only 8st, and Soul Searcher, with 8st 8lb – have already won an all-aged race.
As for Donna Graciosa, who is set a mere 8st 3lb, she has already beaten older horses three times in a row. Donna non e mobile!
FIND THE LADY AT THE WINDSOR NIGHT MEETING
Which favourites would you prefer to back today? Do you fancy those at Exeter, with small fields and with Eaglehaslanded (2.10), Abidijan (3.10) and Chase The Wind (4.50) all odds on this morning?
Or would you rather be on those at Windsor, which fields 114 runners, with no field of fewer than than 13 likely starters?
The answer on the stats is Windsor. Favourites in every section – two year olds, three year olds, stakes races, handicaps – are in overall profit whereas Exeter favourites generally – for chases, hurdles, the lot – are all in the red. Check them out on pages 28 and 46 of the Racing Post, if you don’t believe me.
Yesterday’s narrowly-odds-on nap Nearly Caught was embarrassingly short at SP, and we can expect the same from ‘the obvious’ best bet of the day today, Eaglehaslanded, so I will try for something odds against and double up on the ‘Eagle’ to leverage the odds.
That’s not very brave either, you say. It is with those Exeter favourites’ stats staring me in the face!
2.50 Windsor Though Golden Stunner’s form has worked out well, 8-1 paper forecast Duchy, a Kyllachy who showed nicely in a maiden at Newmarket, was only 4.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
3.30 Lingfield Not many animals at this level can score back to back, so I won’t be supporting last year’s winner, Royal Aquisition, or Dark Profit, the two at the front of the BETDAQ market this morning.
Mossgo (offers of 8.0) can be forgiven his last two runs in higher class, and is four out of five on the AW since May.
Barbs Princess is also down in class, after seven consecutive races in class 3 and class 4, not running badly but dropping 10lb in the ratings in the process.
She prefers an extra furlong, so I expect her to go for broke over this shorter trip, a bet and lay at a huge 16.0 this morning. Can she last out?
4.10 Gowran Park Gentleman Jim Bolger – five winners in five days – can score with the stable cat right now, so 22.0 BETDAQ offer Locus Standi might at least be placed in the first four under Rory Cleary, the stable’s last winning rider.
8.40 Wolverhampton Evacusafe Lady landed a hat-trick on this course at this time last year, and skipped away from them at Chelmsford on the last day. Should be hard to beat now back to form: 5.3 on BETDAQ, as I write.
DAQMAN BETS (stakes reveal strength of the bet from 1 to 9, with 10 a banker).
BET 4pts win DUCHY (2.50 Windsor)
BET 3pts win MOSSGO, and 1pt win and place BARBS PRINCESS (3.30 Lingfield)
BET 1pt win and place LOCUS STANDI (4.10 Gowran Park)
BET 6pts win (nap) EVACUSAFE LADY (8.40 Wolverhampton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win double Eagleshaslanded (2.10 Exeter) and Evacusafe Lady (8.40 Wolverhampton)
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