ONE FALSE MOVE AND THE TITLE HAS GONE: As Kieren Fallon and Paul Hanagan do battle at Newcastle today, nine winners apart, they will be conscious that one false move with the whip could throw away the title.
THREE WHIP-BAN RIDES: Some 20 days of suspension were handed out yesterday on day one of the new rule and three mounts shared by Fallon and Hanagan at Newcastle got their jockeys whip bans recently.
WINNING DAY THANKS TO 4-1 SCORER: The Strig (WON 4-1) put Daqman in front on the day yesterday, with returns from outsiders in the frame at 9-1 and 12-1, but he watched gambles on Salford Prince and his nap, Loxton Lad, go astray.
It was a cock-up on day one. No, I’m not talking about the jockeys who broke the new whip rules. I’m talking about the Stewards who broke them.
The Stewards in this country have a long history of making different decisions, depending on which track you attend, and they did it again yesterday.
I call that unfair, divisive and plain daft, considering how closely they defined the new rules by number. If it’s not the same for everyone, or even remotely similar, why have the numbers in the first place.
At Salisbury, Kieren Fox hit his mount 11 times and got a 15-day ban. At Yarmouth, Robert Winston hit his horse down the neck 10 times and was given a warning.
My betting for the whips rule: Evens a jockeys’ strike, 6-4 a High Court action. After that, 10-1 on the BHA will say: ‘It’s not working, so we are banning whips altogether.’ That, as we all know, is the target all along.
Paul Hanagan and Kieren Fallon clash at Newcastle, with nine in it, as the jockeys’ title loses its place on the front page, thanks to the BHA’s determination to bring the sport into disrepute. Couldn’t they at least have got their timing right.
Racing needs good publicity and these two riders in full cry have been hurting no one, least of all their horses. What happens if one of the pair gets a ban? The title race is over and all racing hell will break lose.
I’m marking their chances out of 10, race by race on Tyneside today.
A 10 would be the equivalent of a good thing, a short-priced favourite; a ‘one’ would be a 20-1 chance. We will then check those marks alongside the Betdaq offers and see if we can find some value. Ha’way the lads!
2.00 Newcastle: A rare Godolphin ride for Hanagan on the well-related Handsome Man. He could do it first time but Godolphin’s have not notably been going in on the debut this season. Nice draw, though.
Fallon’s on the ‘jolly’, Goldream, but not ideally installed out in 13. And why isn’t the beast going for a handicap after three maidens? Sets the standard but vulnerable with 10 unknowns in a big field.
I would award Fallon 6, Hanagan 3. There is no betting opportunity here, with so much not known.
2.30 Newcastle: Fallon’s mount, Damascus Symphony, won last time out, which is usually the kiss of death in class-6, since such low-quality animals don’t usually have the constitution or the mentality – or both – to put two races together.
But this filly clearly acts well on soft, which is a divisive factor today, and Fallon rates five or six points, so the 10.0 this morning looks tempting.
But, hey, wait a minute, when Damascus Symphony won last time, his 15th attempt, the boy on board was banned for ‘excessive use.’
Chapter Five (Hanagan 4 points but 6.0) is still a maiden but has had only five runs. Needs plenty of driving, so it’s also whip-watch time for Hanagan. One false move, Paul.. One too many, Kieren..
3.00 Newcastle: Both Fallon and Hanagan are very live here, riding juveniles that have had a run, showing promise.
Down two grades, Dulkashe (Kieren rates 6) could have the edge as a daughter of Pivotal, who gets soft-ground horses, over Saytara (Paul rates 5), better related but who cost only a third of Dulkashe’s value.
Supreme Luxury and Yours Ever also did well first time but only Supreme Luxury is fancied in the market, so I see Dulkashe’s 4.7 as fair offers.
3.30 Newcastle: Declan Cannon is 50% for Keith Reveley but Broctune Pap Gio is a winner on firm ground and has the ‘coffin box’ stall one.
Compare his chance with Benny The Bear’s, a soft-ground winner, who’s been lucky enough to get stall 16, or that of the dark horse, Naafetha, first time in a handicap from stall 15.
Lightly-raced horses just coming to form are useful bets at this time of the year and Moonlight Mystery fits the bill after a good run over CD on soft, with William Buick booked.
Hanagan’s got a moderate low draw for Bonnie Prince Blue, eight years old now and more used to selling and claiming company. Rates only one mark. Fallon not sighted.
4.00 Newcastle: No Fallon again here, and it’s watch out Hanagan! His mount, Youhavecontrol (marked only with a 2 by me but 10.0) got Freddie Tylicki a whips ban at Carlisle in July.
Ingleby Arch was third in the race last year. Micky Fenton has one ride all day, Toby Tyler, a winner on soft returning to his best trip and 14.5 looks value.
4.30 Newcastle: Of the winners on soft, Supreme Gift may not repeat the feat, since first-time blinkers won the day last time out; Secret City and Bond Fastrac have never won off such high marks.
There must be a great chance for Fallon here, rated 6 or 7 by me, which makes him ‘fair does’ at 7.2 on Flameoftheforest, dropped in class despite a good run at Epsom.
Hanagan’s Commanche Raider let favourite backers down last time back to his winning trip of 5f, having done well over 6f at Thirsk. But this will be more like 7f on the soft. However, my rating of 3 marks, suggests that 14.5 is not bad, so I’m backing both Hanagan and Fallon to get stuck into this.
5.00 Newcastle: Here we go again! Fallon is riding Dr Finley, who got him a one-day whip ban when failing as favourite by a head at Folkestone in August. He’s been placed twice on the ground, though.
Dr Finley is the same 13.0 this morning as Hanagan’s mount, Hererra, who has won over shorter, but won over today ‘s 2m, won at Newcastle, and won on the soft. I’ll mark them equal.
However, Lady Bluesky and Riptide have kept much better company in class-4. It’s a wide-open race at 6.8 the field so big prices are not necessarily generous.
Gaselee is expected to string out all bar Riptide, who also likes to be up with the pace and, the way he’s been running, he could take over the lead and be hard to peg back.
5.20 Newcastle: Fallon stays on for first-time blinkered Samanda. He’ll be virtually on his own. It’s a lousy race and it’s getting dark. Who’s the whipper-in?
DAQMAN’S BETS
BET 2.2pts win DAMASCUS SYMPHONY (2.30 Newcastle)
BET 5.4pts win (nap) DULKASHE (3.00 Newcastle)
BET 4.8pts win MOONLIGHT MYSTERY (3.30 Newcastle)
BET 1.4pts win and place TOBY TYLER (4.00 Newcastle)
BET 3.2pts win FLAMEOFTHEFOREST, and 1.4pts win COMMANCHE RAIDER (4.30 Newcastle)
BET 3.3pts win RIPTIDE (5.00 Newcastle)
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