FIRST-DAY JUMPS NAP ON FIRE: Daqman played safe with the favourites on the first day of the Jumps season proper yesterday, taking his weekend profit to 77 points with three winning bets, including his nap:
WON 4-6 Arctic Fire (nap)
WON 1-4 Coneygree (double)
WON 8-15 Milord Thomas
BETDAQ: SERIOUS ABOUT SPORT: There’s free tipping every day of the new season from Daqman, Shamrock and Multiman in a succinct racing service that’s part of a serious sports strategy:
* RACING SPONSORS: The BETDAQ name has moved into the big time with its newly-announced sponsorship of the £200,000 Punchestown Champion Hurdle. But long-standing support of Kempton Park continues today with five races.
* 2% COMMISSION: In any race, any time, you can take part in the BETDAQ revolution and do yourself a favour – two favours actually – at the same time. Make offers at a bigger price and you could get a match plus a reduction in commission to 2% when you win.
* VALUE OFFERS: It’s been proved time and again that the morning BETDAQ markets add up to less than half, often only a third, of most SP Total percentages. Watch this space.
DAQMAN MAKES NEWS WITH HIS DAILY HEADLINES
PALLADIUM COULD TAKE CENTRE STAGE AT 22.0
CONEYGREE CAN CASH IN ON UNFIT RIVALS
DON’T OVERLOOK FRENCH CHASERS, MILORD!
ARCTIC FIRE SHOULD FINALLY GET THE BOUQUET
NINE THE ONLY ONE FOR HOT VARIAN STABLE
Just follow the stables in form. ‘It’s that simple at this time of year’. That’s what a well-known journalist insists in the racing Press this morning, so I’ll test this tactic today.
I will spotlight the stable ‘doing the business’ at the start of each of the five BETDAQ-sponsored races at Kempton Park this afternoon and evening, and we’ll see how well it works out.
Once, when I was Racing Editor in Fleet Street, the Sports Editor imposed on my pages ‘the girl who just can’t stop picking winners.’
It didn’t take me long to suss out that her principal employment was to sit decoratively a few feet away from his desk, while checking out the Leading Course Trainers from her weekly copy of the old Handicap Book. She then searched through the day’s cards to see if she could find a match.
The game was up when she moved into an offside position by dating one of the soccer writers.
3.00 Kempton (Betdaq.com 2% Commission Handicap) Trainers in form: Charlie Appleby, William Haggas, Roger Varian, Paul Cole, Karl Burke.
A big ‘thankyou’ to Roger Varian for bringing Princess Loulou (10.0 on BETDAQ but won at 6-1) back to her best, so getting her some black type from a Listed win for us at Doncaster on Saturday.
Roger’s last four starters have finished 2211, and he saddles Natural Nine in this, only the horse’s second handicap – he’s never been out of the frame – and the stable’s sole runner of the day.
Veteran Paul Cole is in cracking form with three winners out of the last five and Upstaging could well be placed here though, having tried several trips, and failing to respond to blinkers on his penultimate start, he seems reluctant to put his head in front.
Second Wave (Appleby) is another never out of the frame, and winner of three out of six. He likes to race prominently and could see off some of these at the mile, in particular Fruity and Little Lord Nelson.
Afjaan is a glass horse and he only just scrambled home in a poor contest on the last day. The handicapper was not impressed and nudged him up just 2lb.
VERDICT: Afjaan could improve for handicapping but is a short price to do so, particularly when – in a field ideal for each-way betting – you have two runners, Second Wave and Natural Nine, which have never been out of the frame.
Natural Nine, 7.2 on BETDAQ at the time of writing, was only marginally worse for a place than Afjaan was to win. Orange betting percentage 108%.
THERE’S A STRONG SIGNAL FROM OUTER SPACE
3.35 Kempton (Betdaq.com £50 In Free Bets Handicap) Trainers in form: Jamie Osborne, Paul Cole, John Best, James Fanshawe.
Field Of Dream is 22.0 in the BETDAQ orange this morning, now down a stone on the rating he commanded after winning the 2014 Royal Hunt Cup but he’s never showed on a man-made surface and prefers to lose himself behind a wall of horses on a wide-open grass track.
The same stable’s Outer Space, a Kempton winner over 7f, returned to a mile at Chelmsford on the last day, and was staying on in a fast-run race. He’d earlier run well a class higher than today at both Ascot and Newmarket.
That also applies to Knight Owl but, though he hasn’t won for 14 months, has stayed stuck on ratings of 85 or 86 all that time.
Dutch Art Dealer finished last year off with a flourish but hasn’t been seen since back-to-back wins, starting here at Kempton, and the cheekpieces are missing today. He could have a good winter.
Big Whiskey will need luck at the start from his one draw, but Made With Love is interesting. Broke his maiden here and fourth in a class 2, returning at Newmarket in September after a long break, as if being lined up for the winter AW season.
VERDICT: Made With Love comes from a yard which is 1-30 in the last fortnight. Big Whiskey can be a cumbersome starter. Knight Owl seems stuck on a tricky mark, and I will wait for the cheekpieces to return on Dutch Art Dealer. That leaves me hoping everything will drop right for Outer Space, 5.5 on BETDAQ this morning. Orange betting percentage 109%.
‘Y’ HAS THE ‘X’ FACTOR OF A YARD IN TOP FORM
4.40 Kempton (Download The Betdaq App Handicap) Trainers in form: Gary Moore.
Watch the market about Bold Prediction: there hasn’t been a penny for him since a long run as a bridesmaid (form figures 32220223). He was well backed for all three of his career wins and his rating has crashed 22lb in the last 13 months.
Similarly, My Target has been easy to back on turf in a quiet year but his best form is on Polytrack and the stable is not averse to a punt.
Freddy With A Y was another bridesmaid (232222) until back-to-back wins in the Spring, the last of them over this trip at Lingfield, and the stable is in form.
Of the 6f-winning pair, Dutiful Son and Perfect Alchemy, Dutiful Son is much more likely to get the 7f; in fact, he’s been placed over a mile here in class 2 and hasn’t had much luck with the draw on previous visits.
Jungle Bay is a CD winner; Loyalty, too, brought back today after a long break. But both will be nine years old in a few weeks’ time.
Tournament, a Lingfield winner at 1m, 5lb higher than today, showed his first signs of form since the Spring with a late run from off the pace at Newmarket.
VERDICT: It’s a hard to trust the morning BETDAQ favourite, Tournament (he hangs), and Dutiful Son could do with losing a pound or two.
The Gary Moore stable has current form of 122111, still standing. In fact, the only one not standing has been Gary, laid up in hospital after being badly kicked.
Freddie With A Y could provide a huge homecoming at 17.5 on BETDAQ this morning but I will also have to back My Target (5.9). Money had already arrived this morning for a potential Wigham flutter. Orange betting percentage 106%.
7.2 SHOT REVISION IS RISING THROUGH THE RANKS
5.10 Kempton (Betdaq – We’re Serious About Sport Handicap (London Middle Distance Series Final) Trainers in form: Clive Cox, John Best.
Not many more chances left to support this year’s excellent crop of three-year-olds, but this is, seriously, a superb little contest.
What makes it hard work for the punter is that Charles Camoin in his better days – way back in 2012 – is the only one in the entire field to have won at this level.
Biotic is a CD winner and, though well behind The Steward when he tried to follow up last month, is now 7lb better off.
Tears Of The Sun has been out of form since the early summer and his AW succes came on the softer surface of Southwell.
But I’m convinced a three-year-old will win it: all four are CD winners (so it doesn’t get any easier, does it).
Revision couldn’t possibly beat Magical Thomas on form of early September here, but has continued on the upgrade, while Thomas has struggled and left us doubting his ability, and is easy to back this morning.
There was also good early-September form from Landwade Lad, and he can be forgiven his Chester flop: you don’t win there if you are slowly away.
VERDICT: Yet another CD winner in this – there are six altogether – Justice Belle (5.2 on BETDAQ as I write) could be the main threat to Revision (a tasty 7.2), on her class-2 place at Newmarket on the last day. Orange betting percentage at time of selection: 105%
SALUBRIOUS ON RARE STABLE VISIT TO CARLISLE
5.40 Kempton (Betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Handicap) Trainers in form: Joseph Tuite, Eve Johnson Houghton, William Haggas, Clive Cox
Perfect Bounty and Royal Normandy are closely matvced on their one-two at Salisbury in June but the BETDAQ market suggests that this form is not good enough, with Perfect Bounty a long way behind Wink Oliver afterwards.
He also seems to have the edge on Colorada and Showtime Blues on their running at Wolverhampton and this time the market says we can hardly split them, with 0.8 points between the three.
Pass. I’m leaving this one to you. But don’t forget the trainers in form!
NAP: 2.50 Carlisle Paul Nicholls has argued successfuly for a reduction in the handicap mark handed to Salubrious.
He still thinks he’s badly handicapped, and is resigned to travelling the Graduation-chase route, making only his second trip to Carlisle in six seasons.
Blakemount needs to brush up his jumping and is yet to score over fences, while Deputy Dan’s stable is out of form and I’ll wait for the cheekpieces to go back on before I back Masters Hill.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points)
BET 6.8pts win (nap) SALUBRIOUS (2.50 Carlisle)
BET 3.2pts win and place (win-stakes saver) NATURAL NINE (3.00 Kempton)
BET 4.4pts win OUTER SPACE (3.35 Kempton)
BET 4pts win MY TARGET, and 1.2pts win and place FREDDY WITH A Y (4.40 Kempton)
BET 4.7pts win JUSTICE BELLE and 3.2pts win REVISION (5.10 Kempton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£50 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
