TINGLE CREEK ABC GUIDE: The shock defection of Un De Sceaux means a fresh assessment of Saturday’s Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown. Daqman obliges with his ABC Guide, analysing the form of each runner, relating them to stats for the race.
* TODAY: There’s an early nap at Leicester and bets at Wincanton.
* TOMORROW: Sandown opens with a Cheltenham trial won in the past by Neptune Collonges and Fingal Bay.
* SATURDAY: Tingle Creek Chase at Sandown plus the Becher Chase and the Grand Sefton over the big fences at Aintree.
* SUNDAY: The Punchestown Chase plus the Hilly Way at Cork.
‘VIBRATO’ VIBES GOOD FOR BIG-RACE DOUBLE
3.00 Sandown, Saturday (Tingle Creek Chase) The absence of Un De Sceaux from the Tingle Creek could be a Daqman Champion Chase bonus.
His column has 16.5 on BETDAQ (to win 50) for the Champion Chase about Vibrato Valtat, now promoted to Tingle Creek favourite. Success, or nearly so, could half his current odds for Cheltenham.
Vibrato Valtat ticks all the stats-and-facts boxes, and trainer Nicholls’ annual best-results form-figures in the race since 1999 are: 1221111112301.
All 10 winners in the decade had won a Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase; most had a prep run in the November.
Only those that have scored in it before won the Tingle Creek when over the age of eight. There are just two exceptions to that rule since Desert Orchid (1988).
Here is the ABC Guide to the stats and facts, as compiled by Daqman, and set against form and analysis of each Tingle Creek contender:
A Won Grade 1 or Grade 2 chase (10/10)
B Aged five to eight (9/10)
C Trained by Paul Nicholls (7/10)
D Had raced in November (7/10)
E Sandown CD winner (6/10)
ABCDE Mr Mole
He was only six when he stepped up from handicap success here to win the Grade-2 Game Spirit Chase at Newbury in February for four in a row on the soft. He was beaten by Special Tiara and Sprinter Sacre in the Sandown Celebration Chase over CD in April when the going was good.
If you delete his Cheltenham flops over fences, and his modest performances on good ground, his form is 1111 outside Cheltenham on soft since last Spring.
ABCDE Vibrato Valtat
The day before Paul Nicholls’ Dodging Bullets won the Tingle Creek last year, Vibrato Valtat took the Henry V111 Novices’ Chase here, a natural launch-pad for this Grade 1.
It was the first leg of a novice-chase hat-trick but he was then beaten by Un De Sceaux at Cheltenham and failed to bounce back, only runner-up at Aintree. But his Haldon Gold Cup defeat of Third Intention in November was impressive. Prefers soft ground.
ABDE Special Tiara
Usually sets a cut-throat pace but, fearful of spending his ability too soon in the race, trainer Henry De Bromhead, who is having a good season with a high-flyer hurdler, Identity Thief, says that Tiara is unlikely to go from the front this time.
Came to prominence last Christmas, winning the Desert Orchid Chase at Kempton, then followed his third in the Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March with a six-lengths defeat of Sprinter Sacre over the Sandown CD in the Celebration Chase; Mr Mole third, Vibrato Valtat fourth, Somersby fifth.
ACD Simonsig
Six wins on the trot, hurdles and chases, including the 2013 Arkle at Cheltenham, and looked back in rude health after injury when runner-up to stablemate Bobs Worth over hurdles at Aintree last month on first run since March 2013.
ADE Sire De Grugy
The 2013 Tingle Creek winner (from Somersby), taking the Champion Chase the following March and the Celebration Chase (Sandown CD) in the April. Has lost his form since and is now nine years old, going on 10.
ADE Somersby
He’s 11, going on 12, and hasn’t won for two years, but second in the Tingle Creek the last twice to Sire De Grugy and then to Dodging Bullets, and was runner-up to Sprinter Sacre on his reappearance. A place again is all he can hope for.
BD Third Intention
Fifth in this last year and moderate third to Special Tiara on Kempton’s Christmas card. Had had a run back when beaten by Vibrato Valtat in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter last month.
B Josses Hill
Beaten successively by Third Intention, Un De Sceaux and Clarcam, but Supreme Novice Hurdle runner-up has had only five chases. Could improve but needs to. Doubtful runner.
D Savello
Living off his Grand Annual win at Cheltenham 2014 but no Graded success since and more than 16 lengths off Sprinter Sacre (Somersby second) back at Cheltenham last month.
MIDNIGHT POISED TO STRIKE AT LEICESTER
12.25 Leicester Moscow Me’s 12lb punishment for winning as he liked at Towcester may not stop him against weak opposition. He was 3.3 in the BETDAQ orange this morning.
Devil To Pay is a glass horse, seen only four times since winning at Fontwell in April, 2011, and The Green Ogre’s strike-rate under all disciplines is 1-20, while his yard is 1-23 since November 21.
1.35 Leicester Martin Bosley (Topthorn) is badly out of form and Victor Dartnall (Exmoor Mist) hasn’t had a steeplechase winner this season.
Exmoor Mist shaped well on his chasing debut and gets 7lb from the maiden Trojan Star.
But the one I like is Midnight Chorister, now down to his winning handicap mark and back to the right trip. Showed up really strongly at Huntingdon on the last day.
Trainer Alex Hales last three steeplechase starters have finished 323,and Midnight Chorister (huge at 9.0 on BETDAQ as I write) looks cast-iron for a win with a place saver in an eight-runner field, providing three chances of a breakeven.
TIME FOR SPENDING ON THE SILVER BUCK
2.00 Wincanton (Silver Buck Chase) Velator has been beaten favourite in three of his last four starts for Peter Bowen but the handicapper refuses to budge.
In fact, he has the same chase rating that he started with as a novice for Anthony Honeyball in March, 2013 (scoring 2-17 since).
Veterans Aachen and Upham Atom are once-a-year winners, with Upham Atom having his first run back. But Aachen has his ground today and has twice scored in a grade higher than this.
Fond Memory is a quirky sort whose success has come two levels below this class 2. Ballycoe also looks out of his depth.
Kings Apollo, a CD winner in February, has been well beaten in three races afterwards, with Shy John similarly disappointing since the Spring.
Spending Time, strong at 2.76 as I write, hasn’t been bigger than 5-1 in his six starts since midsummer, first scoring over hurdles and then, on the last day, winning on his first chase start. Aachen (5.1) seems to be the saver.
2.35 Wincanton This is better than a class 3, with hat-trick horse Gabrial The Great and three-out-of-four Presenting Arms on 128 and 127 respectively, and Leviathan a pound behind.
In fact, Leviathan won a class 2 on soft at this time last year and is a pound lower. He returned at Ascot in a race he’d won in 2014 but finished only third – maybe he needed it this time round – and, in consequence, is 5.1 in the orange this morning.
Class-4 CD scorer Presenting Arms has won twice more, despite being upped in grade and by a total of 23lb in weight. Can an amateur rider continue what conditional jockeys have been doing for him?
Gabrial The Great pulverised novice-hurdle opposition by a total of more than 80 lengths in three starts for Don McCain in the summer of last year. But he’s not been seen for 13 months and has switched to David Pipe.
DAQMAN’S BETS (Staked 1-9pts on strength, 10pts for a Banker)
BET 8pts win (nap) MOSCOW ME (12.25 Leicester)
BET 2.5pts win and place MIDNIGHT CHORISTER (1.35 Leicester)
BET 8pts win SPENDING TIME and 2pts win (saver) AACHEN (2.00 Wincanton)
BET 4pts win LEVIATHAN (2.35 Wincanton)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3 x 3pt win doubles Moscow Me (12.25 Leicester), Spending Time (2.00 Wincanton) and Presenting Arms (2.35 Wincanton), and 4 x 1pt win trebles and 1pt four-timer the same three with Lifeboat Mona (12.50 Wincanton)
ANTE-POST WALLET (already bet to win 50): 3.2pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (16.5 Champion Chase, Cheltenham, March)
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