5.5 HIT FOR BACK-TO-BACK NAPS: After a 12-lengths stroll by his Punchestown banker on Sunday, Daqman’s nap, Maraweh (WON 11-4 from 5.5 on BETDAQ), stormed home 10 lengths at Musselburgh yesterday, despite being offered at 9-2 and more on the exchange. That gave Daqman back-to-back naps for the sixth time in 30 days.
15 WINNERS: 219 POINTS PROFIT: His NH naps are now on 15 wins out of 30 since the start of the jumps (that’s a 50% strike rate) for a profit to 20-point level stakes of 219 points, with 13 on the trot finishing in the first three. The sequence is:
Naps: 113211011101F001F2123211221311
SIX RETURNS OUT OF NINE: Three Monday winners means that Daqman has landed six winning bets from his last nine selections (3/4 on Sunday, one of them a big-odds place return, and 3/5 yesterday):
WON 9-4 AL FEROF (Sunday) won 40 lengths
WON 7-4 DJAKADAM (banker nap, Sunday), won 12 lengths
3RD 14-1 MIDNIGHT COWBOY (win and place, Sunday)
WON 7-2 (from 5.2) VOLUNTEER POINT (Monday)
WON 11-4 (from 5.5) MARAWEH (Monday) won 10 lengths
WON 7-4 SUPER KID (Monday)
SEE-HOW-THEY-RAN CHELTENHAM SPECIAL: Daqman today continues his series on ‘where the big winners come from’, an analysis of the championship races at Cheltenham, where and what to look for to find the 2016 festival winners ante-post.
UP AND DOWN: HE LOSES THREE-WAY TIE
I hope this tip goes Down. I’m betting Alastair Down gets an OBE after winning his fourth Racing Writer Of The Year award. Her Majesty loves her racing and, as far as I know, since he started on my racing desk, there has not been a stain on his character.
The winners’ ties, all three of them, also seem stain-free in the mugshot (I’m talking about the appalling prizes) on the front page of the trade paper today but, while two of the ties are not so prominent, one of them takes a long looking lead with a Down-hill finish!
Step backward Mr. Alice Treedown; you finish only third for revealing such a length of green-spotted floppy that it’s clear to see that you had to tuck it into your waistband.
I don’t know what else you trousered for winning the award but our glorious ‘baked bean’ wouldn’t want to see that!
MAN WHO CALLS STARS OF THE FUTURE
Dessie does it so well. The most famous Press man on the honours list was, of course, Peter O’Sullevan, whose dulcet, unhurried tones helped make racing entertainment for the armchair.
And, at more awards last night, it was good to see one for Ireland’s main racecourse commentator, Dessie Scahill, the so distinctive voice that usually gets to be first to call home future champions, Ireland being the cradle of Cheltenham.
The HRI nominated Don Cossack and Faugheen as joint horses-of-the-year. Don Cossack was 6.2 on BETDAQ this morning for the Gold Cup in March, and Faugheen 2.46 for the Champion Hurdle.
Last week I outlined the stats and facts behind the Champion Hurdle winners of the last decade. Now here’s your Champion Chase file..
2016 CHAMPIONS FILE: ALL TO PLAY FOR
Champion Chase (Cheltenham, March, 2016) Ascot, Kempton and Punchestown in late December and January may yet produce the winner of the Queen Mother Champion Chase at Cheltenham in March.
The Desert Orchid Chase, Clarence House Chase and Tied Cottage Chase at those meetings are the kingmakers of what remain of pathfinder races to the title.
But even the Kinloch Brae Chase and the Game Spirit Chase have played their part in fashioning a champion.
Here are the major trial results for winners of the Champion Chase in the last 10 years, followed by those who have matched the stats so far, diary dates for the remaining top trials, and BETDAQ offers – with those taken by me – to date.
BIG ZEB (results in top trend races leading up to Cheltenham): fourth Tingle Creek (December), won Tied Cottage Chase, Punchestown (January)
DODGING BULLETS won Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase, Ascot (January).
FINIAN’S RAINBOW won Desert Orchid Chase (December) and second Clarence House Chase.
MASTER MINDED (2) won Tingle Creek, Clarence House and Game Spirit Chase (February).
NEWMILL won Kinloch Brae Chase, Thurles (January)
SIRE DE GRUGY won Tingle Creek, Desert Orchid and Clarence House Chase.
SIZING EUROPE second Down Royal Champion Chase (November), third Tied Cottage Chase.
SPRINTER SACRE won Tingle Creek and Clarence House Chase
VOY POR USTEDES second Tingle Creek, won Desert Orchid Chase
The qualifiers for 2016 so far: Sire De Grugy (won), Special Tiara (second) and Vibrato Valtat (third) in the Tingle Creek Chase. Don Cossack won the Down Royal Champion Chase from Rocky Creek.
Diary dates: Desert Orchid Chase, Kempton Park, Sunday December 27; Kinloch Brae Chase, Thurles, Thursday January 14; Clarence House Stakes, Ascot, Saturday, January 23; Tied Cottage Chase, Punchestown Sunday January 31; Game Spirit Chase, Newbury, February 6.
Betdaq offers: 2.68 Un De Sceaux, 5.1 Sprinter Sacre, 8.6 Dodging Bullets, 12.5 Sire De Grugy, 24.0 Vibrato Valtat.
Daqman ante-post so far (to win 50): 3.2pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (16.5)
SMOOTH LAKE: SIX OUT OF EIGHT WHEN FIT
1.20 Uttoxeter Beau Lake was big this morning at 9.2 in an ideal win-and-place race of eight runners which gives you four chances of a return, the win and three places.
If you delete his reappearance runs, Beau Lake’s form since February 2011 is 11211131 and he could take this by default, despite his age.
As a winner on the course with conditions right for him and the stable in form, Verano must be backed as a saver.
But he’s high in the handicap and others have even bigger black marks: For Good Measure is second favourite but will need to go round again, as brother to Balthazar King; Itshard To No hasn’t won outside novice company and the maiden Moidore is one-paced.
1.50 Uttoxeter A horse up more than 400 miles, round trip, from Cornwall, appropriately called It’s A Long Road, can turn over Baywing. Giant pasties were no doubt packed for the long journey and again this one was far too big at 5.7 this morning.
That offer in a 106% BETDAQ orange allows me to have a stakes saver on Baywing, but I couldn’t be confident he won’t bounce after winning on heavy ground from a long absence, with his yard struggling for winners.
2.20 Uttoxeter The day dawns. I rarely nap in novice chasers but the capable Warren Greatrex stable has been patiently preparing April Dusk for what they hope is a lucrative chasing career.
This big strapping mud-lover should see off Friendly Royal, who was tonked with a tough 11lb rise for winning on this course, and the non-too-fluent bridesmaid Abracadabra Sivola, who needs a magic wand.
BOY COULD BOUNCE BACK LIKE LAST YEAR
2.10 Fontwell Pete The Feat (8.8 in the BETDAQ orange as I write) made all in this race in 2013 off a 3lb higher mark and had not been seen since the 2014 Midlands National when he reappeared in the Southern National.
That was on today’s course a month back, over two furlongs further, and Pete showed up well for a long way.
The quirky Alternatif has cheekpieces back on. He is always on the premises, as they say, but he hasn’t won over fences under Rules and has bridesmaid form of 222203 since scoring over hurdles last Boxing Day.
The trouble with Union Jack D’Ycy is that he’s very in and out, usually flopping (remembering the pain of his exertions?) after he’s won, so that he was 101P1 up to January last year and is 10PP1 this autumn-winter, noticeably less consistent and all set to add a duck-egg or a P to his form.
Handy Andy’s stable is on a high but he hasn’t won for two years and has scored only once outside Newbury (three wins there). Fontwell is hardly Newbury.
Sun Wild Life has yet to score beyond novice company, and Alan King’s Ziga Boy (6.4 offers) has been very disappointing since success at Wincanton a year ago.
However, Kingy has not lost faith in ‘Ziggy’, who followed last season’s pulled-up reappearance run with a win and could bounce back in the same way today.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9, according to strength; 10 would be a banker)
BET 2.5pts win and place BEAU LAKE, and 2pts win (stakes saver) VERANO (1.20 Uttoxeter)
BET 4pts win on each IT’S A LONG ROAD and (stakes saver) BAYWING (1.50 Uttoxeter)
BET 3.5pts win ZIGA BOY and 2.5pts win PETE THE FEAT (2.10 Fontwell)
BET 8pts win (nap) APRIL DUSK (2.20 Uttoxeter)
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