THAILAND GOLF CHAMPIONSHIP: A quality field has gathered in Thailand for the fifth edition of the Thailand Golf Championship, a tournament that has become the Asian Tour’s flagship event thanks in no small part to a $1 million purse and the venue– the lovely Amata Spring Country Club in Bangkok. Amata Spring is best known for its signature hole, a Par 3 with an island green that can be shifted around and can only be accessed by boat, but it’s a long, demanding course that has seen its fair share of championship golf, having hosted the Royal Cup (team competition, Europe vs. Asia– remember?) from 2006-2010.
Lee Westwood is the defending champion and he also won here in 2011, so he’s obviously a guy to keep in mind at 27.0 despite his recent struggles. At nearly 7,500 yards and with water coming into play on most of the holes, what Westwood provides– consistency with the driver, the ability to hit it both long and straight– is at a premium at Amata Spring. It shouldn’t be surprising, then, that Sergio Garcia has also triumphed here (2013) and is considered one of the favorites this week after winning the Ho Tram Open in a playoff a few days ago. It’s tough for me to get behind Sergio at a price like 6.6, though, and I feel the same way about short-odds favorite Bubba Watson, who is trading at 6.0 at the time of this writing. Bubba has appeared visibly frustrated with Amata Spring in each of his last two appearances, finishing 39th and 25th, and he was playing on the opposite side of the world last week (in the Bahamas), unlike most of the guys he’ll be competing against. There aren’t too many big names in the field, though, and this has proven to be a place where the cream rises to the top (Charl Schwartzel won in 2012, to go along with Westwood’s two victories and Garcia’s one), so we’re only left with a handful of players that I would deem likely contenders. Here are three who may be worth a look:
WIN MARKET
Recommendations to BACK (odds in parenthesis)
Thongchai Jaidee (19.5)- Jaidee is a sporting hero in Thailand so he’ll have lots of pressure on him this week, but he’s in good form at the moment, he’s played well at Amata Spring in the past and his price is much more reasonable than the Watsons and Garcias of the world, so I’ve decided to play on him here. He’s not particularly long off the tee, but he hasn’t had any trouble getting around the golf course in the past, finishing 6th here last year, 10th in 2013, and 17th in 2012 (progressively improving each year, you’ll notice). And he had a strong showing in the recent WGC-HSBC Champions, placing 11th after shooting 66-68 on the weekend, so there’s no reason to doubt the current state of his game. Count me in.
Martin Kaymer (19.5)- Trading right around the same price as Jaidee is Martin Kaymer, and he’s another one I fancy at nearly 20/1. Kaymer hasn’t done anything spectacular lately but his game is definitely moving in the right direction, as evidenced by his 10th-place finish in the DP World Tour Championship a couple of weeks ago. He’s both long and straight off the tee so he seems to perfectly fit the mold of someone who would succeed at Amata Spring, and indeed he finished runner-up to Westwood here last year, shooting a final-round 68 to nearly get the job done. Moreover, Kaymer sounded extremely upbeat and motivated for this tournament in a recent Sky Sports article, speaking about how a win here would be a great way to finish a disappointing season. He’s got as good a chance as anybody, I think.
Prom Meesawat (122.0)- If you’re looking for a “live” longshot, you could do a lot worse than Meesawat, a two-time winner on the Asian Tour who is playing some great golf at the moment. This guy has been a cash register in recent weeks, finishing 5th at both the World Classic Championship and the Manila Masters and 14th at the Ho Tram Open, and he has the length off the tee necessary to compete at Amata Spring (6th here in 2012). This would be the biggest victory of Meesawat’s young career and I’m not sure he has what it takes to stare down a Garcia, Westwood, or Watson on Sunday, but at 122.0 he’s certainly worth a small bet.
TOURNAMENT MATCH BETS
Sergio Garcia (1.91) vs. Bubba Watson (1.91)
I’ve shied away from both of these guys in the overall market for the reasons stated above, but head-to-head I believe Garcia is at a clear advantage here. Watson’s performance in this tournament has worsened in each of his three appearances, and he was clearly frustrated with the golf course after his opening-round 76 last year. Garcia, meanwhile, loves it at Amata Spring, finishing 9th last year after his win in 2013. Recommendation: Garcia at 1.91
Thomas Bjorn (1.91) vs. Scott Hend (1.91)
Bjorn finished just a shot out of the playoff in last week’s Ho Tram Open, so he’s clearly in good form at the moment but he’s never played this event before, and 7,500 yards is a lot of golf course for him at this stage. Conversely, Aussie Scott Hend hits the ball nine miles and excels at Amata Spring, finishing 5th here last year and 6th in 2012. I know who I’m riding with this week. Recommendation: Hend at 1.91
