NFL WEEK 14: The playoff picture is coming into clearer focus now, as teams are being eliminated on a weekly basis while others solidify their positions. In the AFC, New England, Cincinnati, and Denver all hold three-game leads in their respective divisions (with four games remaining), so nothing short of a cataclysmic meltdown will prevent those three teams from, at the very least, hosting a first-round playoff game. The AFC South looks to be a two-horse race between Houston and Indianapolis (both 6-6, two games clear of Jacksonville), and those teams are also in the mix for a Wild Card berth, along with Pittsburgh (7-5), Kansas City (7-5), Buffalo (6-6), and the New York Jets (7-5). Oakland (5-7) and Miami (5-7) are still alive, but they both need to win out and have the right teams lose the right games, so it ain’t looking good.
In the NFC things are a bit more muddled, as both the East and the North are totally up for grabs and as many as eight teams still harbor realistic Wild Card hopes. Carolina, at 12-0, has clinched the South and is closing in on home-field advantage throughout, while Arizona (10-2) appears to have sewed up the West. Seattle (7-5) and the Green Bay (8-4)/Minnesota (8-4) division loser have the inside track on a Wild Card spot, but the field is packed tightly behind them, with no team in the conference sporting a record worse than 4-8 (when’s the last time THAT’S been the case for either conference at this point in the season???).
So we’re in for some good football over the next month, and hopefully we can correctly predict the future in time to fill all our stockings with Christmas cheer. We certainly didn’t do very well in that regard in November, as many of you know, and splitting our four games last week didn’t do anything to wash away the bitter taste. Fortunately, this week is full of opportunity, and I have a feeling these four games will leave us smiling come Sunday night:
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals (Cin -3, 50)
The Bengals are coming off two straight blowout wins, but neither the Rams nor the Austin Davis-led Browns pack near the offensive punch of Big Ben’s Steelers, so this week they’ll be faced with a different type of challenge. These teams met back in Week 7, of course, with Andy Dalton’s late touchdown pass giving the Benglas a 16-10 win, but that was Ben Roethlisberger’s first game back after a 4-game injury-related absence and he played quite poorly, throwing three interceptions, so I’m not sure that game is a great representation of what Cincinnati will face this Sunday, either. Let’s put in this way: there’s no offense in the NFL I’d take over Pittsburgh’s right now, with apologies to Arizona– the only team that averages more yards per game than these Steelers (and think what the stats would look like had Roethlisberger stayed healthy all year… or if Le’Veon Bell hadn’t suffered a season-ending injury a few weeks back). Roethlisberger is playing at an elite level, he has probably the best receiver in football– Antonio Brown– at his disposal, and the Martavis Bryant/Markus Wheaton duo is finally healthy and producing. The results speak for themselves: 45 points against Indianapolis last week, 30 on the vaunted Seattle defense the week before that, and 68 combined against Cleveland and Oakland in the two previous games. That’s 143 points in the last four weeks, and Big Ben looks sharper each time out. You’re telling me that the Bengals are going to slow this down? Remember– this Cincinnati defense gave up 34 in Arizona three weeks ago, so it’s not like they’re bulletproof. And the secondary is the weakness of the unit, surrendering 240 pass yards per game despite facing some truly horrendous quarterbacks this year. I think Roethlisberger lights it up on Sunday, as he seems to be doing on a weekly basis, and if you’d like to bet on the Red Rifle to keep pace, be my guest. I’ll be on Pittsburgh. Recommendation: Pittsburgh +3 at 1.81
Buffalo Bills @ Philadelphia Eagles (Pick ’em, 47)
These teams have similar records– the Bills are 6-6, while the Eagles sit at 5-7– but I believe they’re of different quality, and I think we’ll see that when they face off this week in Philly. The Bills have been playing good football over the past month, losing heartbreakers to the Patriots and Chiefs while pulling out wins against the Jets and Texans. All four of those teams are better defensively than the Eagles, who rank 26th in the league in yards allowed, and the Bills have scored 20 points or more in each game, topping 30 twice. In other words, this Buffalo offense– a punchline at the beginning of the season– has quietly become an effective unit under the leadership of Tyrod Taylor. And make no mistake, it is Taylor who is the catalyst for all this recent success, as the offense looked totally different when he was sidelined earlier in the season and E.J. Manuel had to play. Taylor has found Sammy Watkins repeatedly in recent weeks, opening up the passing game and, in turn, the whole offense. We should also mention the play of tailback LeSean McCoy, who has recaptured his Eagles-era glory days and will surely be looking to stick it to his former team (and “racist” coach) this week. All in all, it’s going to be a lot for the fragile Philly defense to handle, and there’s been little evidence that a breakthrough is on the way for the struggling Eagles offense. Sam Bradford is back under center now, but the Bradford experiment has been an unqualified failure this season, thanks in no small part to a thin receiving corps that lacks a true “number 1”. DeMarco Murray is now complaining about his role, and the running game has been inconsistent and mostly unproductive despite a star-studded (and very pricey) backfield. The Eagles are still right in the thick of things in the dreadful NFC East, but when you watch them play nothing at all screams “playoff team”. Conversely, the Bills are rounding into form in recent weeks, looking very much like a team you wouldn’t want to face in the playoffs, and they badly need a win here to keep their own postseason hopes alive. I think they get it. Recommendation: Buffalo ML at 1.82
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers (GB -7.5, 42.5)
Recently, I’ve been asked many different versions of the same question: what’s wrong with the Packers? While still tied atop the NFC North at 8-4, something is clearly amiss with this Green Bay team, especially the offense, a unit that has been so dominant for so many years under the guidance of Aaron Rodgers. Suddenly, it seems, Rodgers has nowhere to throw the ball and his receivers drop passes in critical moments. The Pack picked up a critical win on a final-play Hail Mary in Detroit last Thursday night, but that game did nothing to quiet the critics or answer any questions. So… what’s wrong? The short answer is– I don’t know. I’ve been avoiding the Packers in recent weeks specifically because I’m just as baffled as everyone else as to why their offense isn’t any better, and, like most people, I keep waiting for things to start clicking like they have in the past. The loss of Jordy Nelson has obviously been more important than nearly anyone figured it would be, as the offense now lacks a reliable deep threat that can loosen up a defense by keeping the safeties away from the underneath stuff. It’s more than that, of course– the play of the offensive line certainly isn’t helping, and Randall Cobb’s nagging bumps and bruises may be affecting him more than he lets on– but not having Nelson out there hurts. Bottom line: this isn’t the same Green Bay offense that we’ve grown accustomed to seeing over the last few years. Fine. ALL THAT BEING SAID, this is Aaron Rodgers vs. Matt Cassel at Lambeau Field, in a critical, must-win game for both teams. The Cowboys have been unwatchably bad on offense with Cassel under center, while the Green Bay defense has allowed fewer than 18 points per game over its last four contests. You can talk to me all you want about the struggles of the Packers offense, but you can’t talk me out of the Packers winning BIG this week. This one won’t be close. Recommendation: Green Bay -7.5 at 2.04
Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos (Den -7.5, 43.5)
Okay, I guess I’m more committed than most to this whole “Denver is struggling” notion. The Broncos are 10-2 and have won three straight, including a win over New England, but still I feel like they’re a vulnerable team that’s ripe for an upset and/or an eventual first-round playoff loss. I realize they play great defense, but I think folks need to pump the brakes with all the Brock Osweiler excitement. The guy has started three games in his career and the Broncos have produced just 17 points in two of those games, including last week’s showdown with the defensively-challenged Chargers. Oakland is vulnerable in the secondary, but we haven’t seen anything that would lead us to believe that Osweiler will be able to take advantage of that vulnerability, and so I expect another plodding, 17-23 point performance from the Denver offense. If that’s what we get, I firmly believe that a highly underrated Oakland offense will be able to put enough points on the board to stay within a touchdown here. Although they managed just 10 points when these teams met back in Week 5, Derek Carr was really close to hitting several big plays in that game and still wound up with 250 passing yards. Carr is surrounded by playmaking wideouts and a good young back in Latavius Murray, giving the offense a very potent look at times. The Raiders need a win to keep their playoffs hopes alive and while I’m not sure they get it, I do think they’ll go down fighting against a team that struggles to score. Recommendation: Oakland +7.5 at 1.83
