9-WIN KING OF BETDAQ RACES: Daqman goes on the attack at Doncaster today – win, place and lay – on an eight-race BETDAQ-sponsored card. Last week’s similar assault at a Betdaq meeting produced nine winning bets. There’s also a banker this afternoon. His current sequences on lays and bankers:
Lays: 1111111111111xx1111111
Bankers:: 2111F112131
CHELTENHAM VALUE CHALLENGE: After a 2-0 weekend win, Daqman went further ahead of Pricewise in their feature-race value challenge. Today they meet again in the 1.45 and 2.20 at Cheltenham. The scores are:
Daqman 11, Pricewise 3
DAQMAN HITS 10 IN FIVE DAYS: Whata start yesterday! Daqman opposed a Paul Nicholls odds-on shot with Whataknight (WON 2-1) at Taunton and followed up with a place on Abyaat (3rd 28-1), despite that one’s defeat by a total of 80 lengths on his last two appearances. As good as a 9-2 winner, and a 10th winning bet in five days.
‘LION’ DOUBLE ON THE CHELTENHAM CARD
12.00 Cheltenham Paul Nicholls has won this four times in six years but remains in the doldrums with just one winner from 25 starters since December 3, including six losing favourites up to and including Rock On Oscar’s 6-5 on defeat by my bet, Whataknight, at Taunton yesterday.
Nicholls has left in three today, of which Vicente in this race was very easy to back at 7.8 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
That’s a big offer for a Cheltenham winner already, who has scored three times over fences, where only Onenightinvienna has managed just the one.
And that one looks vulnerable to the second horse home at Exeter that day, Fletchers Flyer, now receiving 5lb for little more than a length.
The fact is that any one of this race of novices could win, as indicated by the range of only 1.6 points in the BETDAQ market among four of the six runners.
But, until I know them better over the bigger obstacles, I will always take their hurdles height for a measure, and Fletchers Flyer and Blaklion are the Graded hurdlers in this field.
Racereaders I know thought that Blaklion was coming to beat Vicente at Cheltenham, had he not made a mistake – he was 4-1 and Vicente 16-1 in the market that day – and with the stable having struck some seam of form now, Blaklion should be given another chance: 5.0.
There’s a coincidence double here with Vieux Lion Rouge in the 1.45 Cheltenham: the black and the red lion.
1.45 Cheltenham (Grade-3 chase) David Pipe is finding some form – three winners in the last week – after a below-par autumn. He’s won this stamina test three times since 2007 with a Kim Muir winner and an NH Chase runner-up, to name but two as they say.
Biggest pointer from this came in 2008 when it was won by Venetia Williams’s Mon Mome, who took the Grand National the following April at 100-1.
Pipe with Vieux Lion Rouge and Venetia with Aaachen are both represented today, as is another recent winning trainer, Neil Mullholland (Midnight Chase 2010), who saddles The Druids Nephew.
Again the market was tight this morning. The BETDAQ orange had three points separating five horses at the front of the market. Aachen is not among them, as a penalised 11-year-old.
Knock House won an amateurs’ race at Cheltenham and they are not always reliable as a guide; The Druids Nephew has a 10lb extra burden for winning at the festival, and maybe Vieux Lion Rouge can continue his progress: 5.5 taken.
2.20 Cheltenham (cross-country) Only one winner of this has been bigger than 5-1 SP in the decade and none younger than nine.
That would be to discount Josies Orders and Love Rory for banks king trainer Enda Bolger.
Josies Orders had only 10st 2lb when winning the handicap cross-country handicap here a month back, and is massively worse off with runner-up Any Currency.
But a day later Love Rory competed off 11st 9lb, giving weight to the winner, and so the ‘moral’ at Punchestown, also over 3m 6f. Can he translate that Punchestown form to Cheltenham?
I think that the drying ground gives Any Currency every chance of winning this, with a little bit on Love Rory at 17.5 for a place.
GOLD BANKER VOLNAY HUB OF MULTIPLES
11.40 Doncaster (Betdaq – Serious About Sport Handicap Chase) The drying ground will suit Waltz Darling, who has been placed three times in a row at Doncaster.
Cernunnos has yet to make his mark since coming over from France but the tongue-tie might help. A hurdles winner three times, Lord Wishes tried four chases at this time last year with no success.
Front-runner Little Windmill could be effective over fences off this low mark and dropped back in trip.
WIN Waltz Darling PLACE Little Windmill LAY Cerunnos
12.10 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £25 Free Bet Maiden Hurdle, Div 1) As he’s a two-miler on the Flat, you would expect Deauville Dancer to need further over hurdles.
Call To Order, who may also need further, and Mister Kalanisi (Dan Skelton) are bred to do well and Alan King’s Winter Escape looks particularly interesting.
Skelton is in terrific form, his double yesterday taking him to five wins in five days, whereas Jonjo O’Neill (Call To Order) has been scoring only in bumpers in the last fortnight.
Nicky Richards has just hit some form – he’s on a hat-trick after yesterday’s double – and Shotofwine was too big this morning at 13.5 on BETDAQ. Mister Kalanisi was 10.5
WIN Winter Escape PLACES Mister Kalanisi, Shotofwine LAY Call To Order
12.45 Doncaster (Betdaq.com £25 Free Bet Maiden Hurdle, Div 2) Forgotten Hero is class 2 on the Flat, a couple of grades above Aldeburgh, who tried hurdles unsuccessfully two years ago.
Unbuckled is by Presenting and has classy Flat connections on the dam’s side. Top Priority may need the run but Park Place has been out on the Flat.
WIN Forgotten Hero and Unbuckled LAY Top Priority
1.20 Doncaster (Betdaq.com 50% Commission Refund Novices’ Handicap Hurdle) Flemensmix won an open handicap but is still eligible for this novice event. The worries are he might bounce after winning from a long lay-off and he has to give weight all round.
Polarbrook was a good second on this course on the last day but the trainer reaches for a visor here and the gelding is eight now. Trainer Derek Shaw is missing strike badly with form figures: 235404335, Polarbrook his only winner this season.
Speredek (8.2 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse), an impressive bumper winner, has been well prepped for this first handicap and the sudden application of tongue-tie and cheekpieces suggests today is ‘go.’
Courtlands Prince (an 11.0 offer) ran well at Wincanton in February and the better ground will suit; he got bogged down in the mud at Carlisle on his reappearance for a new yard and the tongue-tie is back on today.
Benissimo was an odds-on flop on his return and reappeared a 33-1 chance beaten 50 lengths, all of which sounds the klaxon.
WIN Flemensmix PLACE Courtlands Prince and Speredek LAY Polarbrook
1.55 Doncaster (Betdaq.com 2% Commission Handicap Chase) A really decent looking class-3 marathon chase, with Desert Joe, Father Edward and Ueueteoti related to stayers, while we already know that Ballyben, Lackamon, Master Rajeem, Ikorodu Road, Ruapehu and Orange Nassau are all capable at today’s trip.
I would rule out Beeves and Up For An Oscar on poor trainer form, whereas Lucinda Russell (Ballyben) is on four out of five after a hat-trick on Monday, albeit The Cobbler Swayne (12.35) could already have changed the picture.
Two or more among Ruapehu, Orange Nassau, Master Rajeem and Ueueteoti are likely to share a strong pace, setting up the race for latecomers.
Ballyben at 9.4 on BETDAQ as I write is the consistent horse in this grade among the younger horses, and that applies to Lackamon (7.6) among the older ones.
Lackamon (7.8) must go close with the stable doing well. Desert Joe has not won outside novice company and is open to jumping errors: looks short at 5.5.
WIN Lackamon PLACE Ballyben LAY Desert Joe
2.30 Doncaster (Download The Betdaq App Mares’ Handicap Hurdle) Jean Fleming has won a grade higher on this better ground, while four-time soft-heavy winner Tambura faces a 7lb penalty.
Maggie Blue also likes a sound surface and this is the mare’s time of year. Chantara Rose hasn’t won yet but conditions are right today: the going and the step up in trip both suit. If only their stables were in better form.
Flemensbay (13.0 on BETDAQ as I write) is an in-and-out performer, but it’s his turn on the form figures (1010) and, if front-running, could be hard to catch
WIN Jean Fleming PLACE Flemensbay LAY Tambura
3.00 Doncaster (Download Betdaq Trading Software on Betdaqtraders.com Novices’ Chase) This column has opposed both Ptit Zig and yesterday Rock On Oscar, as Paul Nicholls struggles to get back on track.
Katgary will have no excuses regarding the ground but has to give 7lb to Volnay De Thaix.
The Henderson six-year-old was second in the Relkeel a year ago and third in the Aintree Hurdle in the Spring, and Nicky talks of him in the same breath as Vaniteux, who won his first chase by 19 lengths at Kempton last month.
WIN (banker) Volnay De Thaix LAY Katgary
3.30 Doncaster (Cash Out With Betdaq Handicap Hurdle) Nicholls at the front of the market with Abidjan has to be a lay again with the five-year-old stepping out of novice company off a big weight (though the claim will help) and only prepping for a chase debut soon.
Red Devil Boys has won three times at Doncaster and Abidjan makes a price for us: 6.0 boys!
With Balmusette drifted like a lonely dog on a raft, well over my betting weir at 23.0, they grey Kalifourchon (8.2) is taken to continue his progress
WIN Red Devil Boys PLACE Kalifourchon LAY Abidjan
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked to win 20 points, unless stated and except bankers)
BET 5pts win BLAKLION (12.00 Cheltenham)
BET 2pts win and place MISTER KALANISI, and 1.5pts win and place SHOTOFWINE (12.10 Doncaster)
BET 2.7pts win and place SPEREDEK, and 2pts win and place COURTLANDS PRINCE (1.20 Doncaster)
BET 4.4pts win VIEUX LION ROUGE (1.45 Cheltenham)
BET 3pts win LACKAMON (1.55 Doncaster)
BET 7pts win ANY CURRENCY, and 1.2pts win and place LOVE RORY (2.20 Cheltenham)
BET 1.6pts win and place FLEMENSBAY (2.30 Doncaster)
GOLD BANKER: BET 3pts win (nap) VOLNAY DE THAIX (3.00 Doncaster)
BET 4pts win RED DEVIL BOYS and 2.7pts win KALIFOURCHON (3.30 Doncaster)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 2pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles LACKAMON (1.55 Doncaster) with ANY CURRENCY and LOVE RORY (2.20 Cheltenham) and with VOLNAY DE THAIX (3.00 Doncaster)
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