16-1 AND 11-2 WINNERS: Daqman landed an early bonus on the BETDAQ-sponsored card at Kempton Park yesterday with a place bet on Jebediah Shine (WON 16-1) and his sole selection at Catterick was Hister Flemen (WON 11-2)
SIX LAYS ON THE TROT: It wasn’t the sensational day of his 14 wins on the last BETDAQ card but there were four more lays up, bringing his score to 34 from 37 with unbeaten sequences of 15, 13 and now six in a row. They continually pay for his betting.
TODAY: The third in the series of See How They Won, revealing the road to Cheltenham for past big winners, with qualifiers so far and diary dates to watch out for.
TOMORROW: ABC guide to Saturday’s big race at Ascot, The Ladbroke, a big-field hurdle that has them all guessing.
2016 CHAMPIONS FILE: THE DENMAN KEY
Cheltenham Gold Cup (Cheltenham, 18 March, 2016) Kempton Park on Boxing Day and Leopardstown on December 28 have major races on the Gold Cup trail of past Cheltenham winners.
But key to the winner’s final preparation is the Denman (formerly the Aon) Chase at Newbury in February. Past winners of gold show these pathfinder trails:
CONEYGREE (results in top trend races): won Denman (ex-Aon) Chase, Newbury; won Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, Kempton. BREAKING NEWS: Coneygree, last season’s Cheltenham Gold Cup winner, has been ruled out with injury for the rest of the campaign, Sara Bradstock, wife of trainer Mark, told the Racing Post, “Coneygree won’t run in the King George (at Kempton on Boxing Day) having sustained a new injury.” She added: “He’s being assessed by vets this morning.”
BOBS WORTH won Hennessy Gold Cup, Newbury, same season; won RSA Chase, Cheltenham, the previous year
LONG RUN won King George, Kempton.
DENMAN won Lexus Chase, Leopardstown; Denman Chase, Newbury in the year; won RSA Chase the year before
IMPERIAL COMMANDER won Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham, the previous year
KAUTO STAR won King George, Kempton (prior to both wins), Denman Chase, Newbury; won Gold Cup two years before.
LORD WINDERMERE won RSA Chase, Cheltenham, the previous year
SYNCHRONISED won Lexus Chase, Leopardstown
WAR OF ATTRITION second Lexus Chase, Leopardstown
The qualifiers for 2016 so far: Don Poli (won RSA Chase, Cheltenham), Smad Place (won Hennessy Gold Cup), Uxizandre (won Ryanair Chase, Cheltenham)
Diary dates: King George, Kempton (Boxing Day); Kauto Star Novices Chase, Kempton (Boxing Day); Lexus Chase, Leopardstown (December 28); Denman Chase, Newbury (February 13)
Betdaq offers: 6.2 Don Cossack, 6.6 Djakadam, 7.4 Don Poli, 8.4 Vautour, 22.0 Road To Riches
IS THIS LAY A CHRISTMAS PREZZIE?
12.10 Newbury and 12.20 Ludlow Apart from Old Guard, Paul Nicholls’s stable has now gone 26 consecutive losers.
Of his six runners since Old Guard, two have pulled up, one unseated and the three others beaten a total of 121 lengths, with two of the six odds-on favourites.
So I just had to lay Le Prezien (12.20 Ludlow) at a shade of odds-on over my cornflakes though the snag relaying such selections to this site is that Le Prezien and others could ‘go walkies’ in the market like Old Guard and one – or more – of them could win, pushed right out, as with Old Guard at 7-1.
By the time I’d written this, another Nicholls, Clan Des Obeaux (12.10 Newbury) had lost the market lead and had drifted to 3.55.
2.25 Newbury The poor form of the champion stable (Arpege d’Alene), and of Rebecca Curtis’s O’Faolain’s Boy since he won the 2014 RSA at Cheltenham, suggests that Sausalito Sunrise is worth a bet to follow up his success in the Murphy a month back.
It may not be that straightforward, with Rebecca’s stable out of its own doldrums and the Nicholls runner now equipped with a tongue-tie.
But on all known current form of horse and stable, Sausalito Sunrise should be odds on but is 2.52 this morning, as I write.
VIVA VIVACCIO! 8.0 STEAL FOR VENETIA
1.30 Ludlow Arkaim is a monkey: he takes some cajoling before he will consent to line up. But, in the race itself, he likes to go off in front, as if it’s all a game and he likes to mock his handlers and his rivals.
Jayo Time is going for a third Ludlow win this autumn-winter but is up a total of 15lb and has been enjoying a sound surface.
Sir Valentino has also scored twice at Ludlow and is going for a hat-trick here, launched at Leicester last month when he was 17lb lower, so he also has it tough today.
Yet another dual Ludlow winner, Vivaccio, has won only on good-to-soft so there is the same query over today’s deeper ground.
My answer is to go for youth – six winners out of seven have been aged five or six – and I shall chance Vivaccio on his home course, 7lb lower than last year at this time.
Venetia Williams has won this race five times in nine seasons, and Vivaccio’s 8.0 this morning could be a steal on the handicap.
GORSKY ISLAND PREPPED FOR THIS
2.40 Ludlow I started to look at the foot of this handicap, too, with the ground so soft, but the trip is stretching it for Drumshambo, who hasn’t won for two years.
Goodtoknow is a bridesmaid (form figures 22202 still standing), yet 11lb higher than for his last success, and it’s two years, too, since Handy Andy scored.
Gorsky Island (8.0 on BETDAQ this morning) is 22lb higher than for the first of back-to-back wins at Ludlow a year ago but is only seven and had a quiet run back over hurdles as if prepping for a strike.
What A Warrior (5.9 offers) has been racing three grades higher than this, since he won the United house Gold Cup just over a year ago, and he’s also a Ludlow winner. He’s always been a good-ground warrior – ditto Azure Fly – but, as a strong front-runner on a track that suits, could make his class tell.
Red Devil Lads may need the run and Katkeau, a Listed-level hurdles winner on the soft, went well fresh over fences at Fakenham but beat only a small field and the jury is still out.
DAQMAN’S BETS (staked 1 to 9 for strength; 10 a banker)
LAY 5pts LE PREZIEN (12.20 Ludlow)
BET 8pts win (nap) VIVACCIO (1.30 Ludlow)
BET 7pts win SAUSALITO SUNRISE (2.25 Newbury)
BET 4pts win on each GORSKY ISLAND and WHAT A WARRIOR (2.40 Ludlow)
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