210 POINTS UP IN CHRISTMAS WEEK: If in doubt, follow Daqman’s nap – 210 points profit with four winners in Christmas week – but yesterday’s best bet, Not A Bother Boy (2nd 9-2), let him down in his bid to top the 300. His only winner was If In Doubt (WON 9-2).
THREE-WAY VALUE CHALLENGE: At the home turn, Daqman’s order in for the King George looked on the cards, with his three – Vautour, Cue Card and Don Cossack – clear of the rest, but Don Cossack came down two out, leaving the scores in the Pricewise challenge unchanged at 14-4 to Daqman. Today they clash in the 1.25 and 2.35 Kempton, and 2.55 Leopardstown. The state of Daqman’s main bets is:
Naps: Five out seven (24 for the season)
Naps profit: 416 Points (20-point stakes)
Bankers: Five out of seven
Lays: Six out of seven (34 out of 38)
Daqman 14, Pricewise 4 (overall 260-99)
TAKE THESE MAD OFFERS ON BETDAQ
1.25 Kempton (Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase) Nicky Henderson, who was in form here yesterday, and who has produced Simonsig and Sprinter Sacre to take this test, sends Vaniteux further down the path to the Arkle at Cheltenham in March. But he faces three dual winners in what could be a thriller.
They’re still talking about the way heads rolled as Ar Mad led all the way in another top trial, the Henry V111 Chase, at Sandown.
Ittirad has scored seven out of 10 on the gaffe tracks, and Arzal’s performance at Newbury was also a demolition job. But official ratings give Ar Mad a clear advantage off 155.
We can’t be certain of anything with novices at this stage but we can make a fair guess that , if Ar Mad sets the target – the time of his Sandown win was, in a word, fast – he will be very hard to catch: 3.95 in the BETDAQ orange early mouse.
2.00 Kempton (Desert Orchid Chase) Another small field. Another top-class clash of would-be champions in March though, in this case, two of them have won the Champion Chase already: Sprinter Sacre (2013) and Sire de Grugy (2014).
Both have been in the doldrums; both have come back big time in the last six weeks; and they are sure to vie for favourism this afternoon.
The stats say that horses aged nine don’t win this; but they did win the Champion Chase three years running (2010-12).
And the younger generation looks remote here on the ratings; Vibrato Valtat 11lb behind Sprinter Sacre, albeit getting weight today, but with the stable very in and out.
Vibrato Valtat won the Henry V111 Chase last year and beat Sire de Grugy when that one made a quiet return up Haldon Hill in November but, like so many of Paul Nicholls runners, was not at his best when nearly eight lengths off Sire De Grugy in the Tingle Creek early this month.
Sprinter Sacre showed a lot of his old fizz, something of his dynamite, to beat Somersby at Cheltenham last month. But can he put back-to-back wins together? He has not done so since April, 2013.
In a 100% BETDAQ ‘book’ of best offers, it’s last-chance saloon for Vibrato Valtat at 8.4, a huge price in a three-cornered contest in which the two others have to prove that they can sustain recovery.
2.35 Kempton Last year’s winner, Ballinvarrig, has done nothing since, which is why he returns within a pound of last year’s mark. His prep run will bring him on, as it came after 237 days off, but he needs soft-heavy to win his races.
The same applies to last year’s runner-up, Shangani, and Foxbridge landed a hat-trick at the start of the year but also in deep ground.
Ballyheigue Bay is likely to cut out the donkey work here, though he’s no donkey: a winner at Kempton, he was third in the London National at Sandown on his return.
Loose Chips is another front-runner but he pulled up behind Ballinvarriag in this last year. Ardkilly Witness and No Buts have always been hit and miss. Opening Batsman has work to do at the weights.
Ned Stark is the hidden horse. Highly regarded wnner of three novice chases out of four, he has been overfaced in the Ascot Gold Cup Chase and the Hennessy Gold Cup in his two runs back. Showed up well in the Hennessy on the soft and has his ground in lesser company today.
Similarly, and also around 7.0, The Last Samurai came back well in the Rehearsal Chase at Newcastle in November, the race which gave us the Ascot Silver Cup winner, Wakanda, the weekend before Christmas.
HIGH NOON FOR TOMBSTONE..
1.15 Leopardstown Arkle winner, Un De Sceaux – 13 in a row still standing – should, literally, take this in his stride. English rivals at Cheltenham next March will be pleased to see Simply Ned being offered as a yardstick, but he’s no more than that.
1.45 Leopardstown (Future Champions Novice Hurdle) Willie Mullins is four-handed in his bogey race. Only Hurricane Fly (2008) didn’t let him down.
Willie, has had the last two favourites beaten, and three of his odds-on shots have bitten the dust (sorry, eaten the mud) since 2010.
Today he sends out runners in the same race for four top owners in Ireland: Long Dog for the Riccis; Bachasson for Un De Sceaux’s owner, Edward O’Connell; Bleu Et Rouge for J. P. McManus; and Petit Mouchoir for Gigginstown House.
I picked Long Dog and Bachasson for my horses to follow, and they fought a neck one-two in the Royal Bond at Fairyhouse, with Long Dog holding off the four-year-old grey.
One of few more recent odds-on defeats for the County Carlow squad was in the race won by a veritable tank, the ultra-impressive Tombstone, at Fairyhouse on soft-heavy.
Could it be that Gordon Elliott can fire one shot to Mullins four, hit the target with Tombstone and bury so many hopes of Mullins’ top owners? It’s High Noon at 1.45.
.. AND BOUNTY FROM WES HARDIN
2.20 Leopardstown Fancy a coincidence double, Tombstone and Wes Hardin? John Wesley Hardin was one of the infamous outlaws of the Old West. He doesn’t lie in Tombstone with his boots on; he died at El Paso. But the double is not outside the law of probability.
Heavy ground was the making of Wes Hardin, the horse, earlier in the year but bad luck dogged him: brought down in a Grade C, then hampered when runner-up, giving weight to the winner at Punchestown.
Now looks a hidden horse (at 13.5 on BETDAQ this morning) after a Grade B run on the last day. His rider, Jonathan Moore, won a similar big-field handicap hurdle for Noel Meade on Boxing Day, so he did.
Bishopslough hasn’t won a hurdle since his maiden in October, 2013, and the snag with the progressive youngster, Copy That, is doubt about the ground, though the stable is in good form; so, too, his claimer, Jack Kennedy.
2.55 Leopardstown (PP Chase) The handicapper hammered Gallant Oscar 13lb for winning the Pat Taaffe Chase at the Punchestown Festival but Donagh Meyler curtails the punishment by 7lb and trainer Tony Martin has twice won this (at 14-1 and 20-1) since 2007.
Martin also runs Heathfield, who won the Ladbrokes Ireland Chase at the same Punchestown meeting, and has had a run back.
Cause Of Causes paid for my Cheltenham when winning the NH Chase but is getting back on track here for another crack at the Aintree Grand National.
You could back half a dozen here and still not get the winner, but Gallant Oscar looks big at 18.5, and I shall go out on a limb for Dogora (23.0), who was unlucky to fall at the last when running a vastly improved race in the cross-country at Cheltenham last month.
BETDAQ TIPS (staked to win 30 points at BETDAQ offers, unless stated, with banker settled at SP)
GOLD BANKER: BET 30 points win (nap) UN DE SCEAUX (1.15 Leopardstown)
BET 12pts win AR MAD (1.25 Kempton)
BET: 10pts win TOMBSTONE (1.45 Leopardstown)
BET 4pts win VIBRATO VALTAT (2.00 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 2.5pts win and place WES HARDIN and 2pts win (stakes saver) COPY THAT (2.20 Leopardstown)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50); 8pts win on each NED STARK and THE LAST SAMURAI (2.35 Kempton)
BULL’S-EYE BETS (to win 50): 2.8pts win GALLANT OSCAR, and 2.3pts win DOGORA (2.55 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 5 x 3pt win doubles and 2 x 1pt win trebles Un De Sceaux (1.15 Leopardstown) and Ar Mad (1.25 Kempton), with Ned Stark and The Last Samurai (2.35 Kempton)
NEW !!!
You can now follow BETDAQ updates on Google+
For further details – CLICK HERE
£25 IN FREE BETS
Did you know that as well as checking the realtime prices on BETDAQ below – you can also log into your account and place your bets directly into BETDAQ from BETDAQ TIPS.
