BANKER AND BIG-RACE ONE-TWO: A winning 20-point banker kept Daqman in the black at Warwick yesterday. Black Hercules (WON 5-6) was not the only winner to skip round in front for him at the meeting, as revealed in our story below of his 27-1 forecast in the feature race taken by Big Jim (WON 5-1 from 10.5 on BETDAQ).
VALUE ACTION AT LEOPARDSTOWN: There was a nil-nil Saturday score between Daqman and Pricewise, so they remain at 20-8 for the jumps season (overall Daqman 266, Pricewise 104). But they clash again today in the search for value at the big Leopardstown meeting in the 2.25 and 3.00 races.
27-1: IT ALL FALLS RIGHT FOR JIM AND REGGIE
When it all works out.. Not everything in betting goes the way you hope but dogged and inspired deep analysis, and the search for value, reaps its rewards.
Here’s how Daqman saw the Edward Courage Cup (1.15 on the card) at Warwick yesterday, producing a 27-1 winning forecast on Ladbrokes and yet again revealing the superb morning value on BETDAQ. He supported Big Jim and Morning Reggie and opposed Vivaccio:
1: Big Jim WON 5-1 from 10.5 on BETDAQ
DAQMAN said: Trainer Alex Hales drops Big Jim back in trip with the intention of grabbing a lead which will be hard to claw back in the mud: 10.5 looked wrong.
RESULT (Sporting Life): Big Jim made virtually all, clear flat, stayed on well.
2: Morning Reggie 2ND 9-2 from 6.0 on BETDAQ
DAQMAN said: The danger is the grey, Morning Reggie (6.0 offers), a good winner here last Spring, who will appreciate the left-handed course.
RESULT (Sporting Life): Held up in rear; went 2nd 8th, no impression on winner flat.
4: Vivaccio 4th 14-1
DAQMAN said: Has won only on good-to-soft and easy to back in the market.
RESULT (Sporting Life): Soon beaten, 4th and no impression (drifted in the betting).
RAIN GAIN FOR HUNGRY BARRY GERAGHTY..
2.25 Leopardstown Some good horses have captured this former Pierse Hurdle, including Final Approach (2011), whose very next race was to win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
It’s always been a battle of the big owners, and the entries of McManus (9), Gigginstown (2) and Ricci (2) suggests that sleeves are rolled up for the money and the glory again today, despite the weather conditions.
But it’s the horse that has to find the courage and the energy in heavy ground at Leopardstown this afternoon.
A light career (just three runs for one recent winner) and a light weight (only one with more than 10st 9lb in the decade) help the horse and that helps the punter’s pick.
Curragh trainer Alan Fleming is the man in form among the bottomweights, and he has two reliable jocks riding for him, Adrian Heskin (Vive La France) and Andrew Lynch (Bishopslough).
But Shay Barry may have the most significant booking with Barry Geraghty set to weigh out a pound below the lowest he’s been in more than a year.
Geraghty rides a McManus runner, After Rain, bred tough as oak from a cross-country family but nimble enough to score over this 2m trip under Mark Walsh at Wexford in the autumn.
SPs between 10-1 and 16-1 cover most winners of this and, at morning BETDAQ offers, that brings in only four others: Desoto County, Buiseness Sivola, Whatsforuwontgobyu and Kalkir. Just spelling them right has me sweating!
I’ve gotta type Buiseness Sivola’s name again to report that Ruby Walsh’s mount is just above the preferred weight range and has to give a stone or so to some at the foot of the handicap. So, too, Kalkir, under French ace Jacques Ricou.
But Desoto County and Whatsforuwontgobyu (I cheated and did a copy/paste on that one) are spot on where the winners usually come from. Here am I sweating; what about the commentator!
VERDICT: I take the Barry Geraghty tip for After Rain. Vive La France at 15.5 on BETDAQ this morning looks big for a stable in form.
.. AS OLD FRIENDS MEET ON A FINE DAY
3.00 Leopardstown Chase BETDAQ layers are invited to the party! After all, they allowed me to back Cause Of Causes to win the NH Chase at Cheltenham at 44.0 and offered me 60.0 Seabass before he was third in the 2012 Grand National as 8-1 favourite.
But the friends reunited may have to give way here to a rising talent in Fine Rightly (5.6 taken on BETDAQ), winner of three of his last four starts and with an 85% place record overall. He will love the mud.
Cause Of Causes is huge at 15.5 and owes me nothing. Gordon Elliott thinks he’ll get a place.
DAQMAN BETS (staked to win 20 points)
The map of England is a wasteland for jumps racing today and I will follow the AW market to find a nap: Cartographic (2.00 Kempton) is the morning gamble on BETDAQ to improve for his switch from Ireland to David Evans.
On a poor punting day, I’ll put him in with the some short-shots and try to land those illusive Daq Multiples.
BET 12pts win (nap) CARTOGRAPHIC (2.00 Kempton)
BET 4.2pts win AFTER RAIN, and 1.4pts win and place VIVE LA FRANCE (2.25 Leopardstown)
BET (4.3pts win FINE RIGHTLY, and 1.5pts win and place CAUSE OF CAUSES (3.00 Leopardstown)
DAQ MULTIPLES: 3pts win treble BILLY’S HOPE (12.50 Leopardstown), CARTOGRAPHIC (2.00 Kempton) and KILLULTAGH VIC (3.30 Leopardstown)
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