ODDS ON: TO BACK OR NOT TO BACK: Daqman has been checking out the odds-on jumps favourites over the last week. Are they really foundering and floundering in the mud? At the same time, he opposes an odds-on shot at Kempton on the AW this evening.
THERE’S A BANKER AT LINGFIELD: He goes for stables in form, as well as 15.0 and 23.0 offers on BETDAQ to beat that odds-on favourite. His nap is a banker at Lingfield. Today’s scheduled card at Newbury was called off earlier this morning due to frost.
14 ODDS-ON FAVOURITES SCORE OUT OF 21
You’ve heard the Johnny Know-Alls. You can’t win backing odds-on shots. They’re all losing on the heavy ground, and big outsiders are winning all the time.
Not true. Even when betting blind, backing every odds-on favourite, you come close to breaking even at level stakes SP. At least that’s the case over the last seven days.
And, if you’d been on them all taking BETDAQ morning offers, you’d have made a profit of 41 points.
There were 21 starters at odds on in England and Ireland over jumps, producing 14 winners (66% strike rate), showing a loss at SP to 20 points level stakes of 8.04 points, but a profit at the earlier BETDAQ offers that I logged of 41 points, maybe much more at best offers.
I could find very little difference in the numbers of odds-on winners compared with records I kept last year for results on good ground.
But I did find that short-odds SPs seem to shrink during racing in the mud, largely because there are fewer runners but also because the short price is something of a guarantee that the horse will act on the ground. Punters pile on; bookies run scared.
It’s a small sample. Sometimes the BETDAQ offers were low on liquidity, and it’s hardly feasible to quote a market that is fluctuating. Sometimes there were non-runners later in the day. But here is the list at SP for what it’s worth.
It’s an affirmation of my own belief; that, if I can hit a 72% strike-rate at BETDAQ offers, short shots are worth persevering with.
More about that next week but, put simply, I am being selective when I pick my odds-on shots, not betting blind. In fact, some of the time I lay them, if I think they are false favourites. But that’s another story.
2nd 10-11 Conquer Gold (Tuesday)
WON 2-5 LAKE VIEW LAD (Tuesday)
WON 3-10 SUNSHINE CORNER (Monday)
2nd 8-13 Pylonthepressure (Sunday)
WON 2-7 KILLULTAGH VIC (Sunday)
WON 5-6 BLACK HERCULES (Saturday)
WON 1-6 L’AMI SERGE (Saturday)
WON 1-2 WOOLSTONE ONE (Saturday)
WON 1-8 SEMPRE MEDICI (Saturday)
4th 4-6 The Comediologist (Saturday)
WON 2-11 SCEAU ROYAL (Friday)
WON 4-5 BRIERY BELLE (Friday)
9th 8-11 Indien Rouge (Thursday)
WON 4-5 WESTEND STAR (Thursday)
WON 1-6 DON COSSACK (Thursday)
UR 3-10 Bitofapuzzle (Thursday)
WON 4-6 TWO ROCKERS (Thursday)
WON 1-2 PEMBA (Thursday)
WON 8-13 TOMNGERRY (Thursday)
2nd 4-6 Rolling Dylan (Wednesday)
2nd 8-11 Grand Introduction (Wednesday)
FOLLOW THE STABLES IN FORM TODAY..
LINGFIELD There was such good early money for the Ian Williams’ runners here that I suspected a double bid.
Though Byron Flyer (1.00) is unraced, he was morning market leader, shorter than the offers about paper-favourite J’Aspire.
And Percella (2.10) vied for the favourite’s spot, after the same stable’s Bamako Du Chatelet, joint top rated in the Racing Post and second favourite with the bookies early on, was withdrawn.
Harlestone Hopes was strong but is a maiden, and Ian Williams is in good form with three winners from the last eight starters.
Significantly, the three winners were all 3-1 or shorter at SP, which applies to only one of the losers among the eight.
One obvious way of betting the Williams’ pair was to back Byron Flyer (at 2.76 this morning) and follow up on Percella, ‘if lose’. So, if Byron Flyer wins, there is no further bet but, if he loses, you back Percella.
The snag is you might lose the 5.0 offers Percella (at time of writing), so I also played my hunch and had a single-point double the two.
For the nap, I’m taking Steal The Scene (1.35), who has only the nine-year-old Corporal Maddox to beat on form, and it was a similarly young and progressive rival who beat the Corporal on the last day.
MUSSELBURGH Over the jumps at Edinburgh, Tom George is red hot. He’s had two winners out of three in the last fortnight, both favourite. And the other one finished second!
The latest form of Definitely Better (1.45) could definitely be better. But she’s had a holiday since November and has won back to back off this kind of rating.
In fact, she’s 4lb below her last winning mark, 18lb down on her top chase rating, and was a plunge horse this morning, in to 4.0 favourite.
The George stable also makes the 700-mile round trip with Storming Strumpet (2.20) and On The Case (3.30).
.. BUT BIG ODDS ARE AROUND THIS EVENING
KEMPTON TONIGHT Here’s a class-3 contest (5.40) in which only three runners have been capable of winning at that level: Maiden Approach, Oakley Girl and Subtle Knife.
Oakley Girl, so penalized that she has to give weight all round, is odds on this morning, but she will have to show all the class of her six-lengths Wolver win.
Including Sammy Jo Bell’s claim, Maiden Approach is 15lb better off with the favourite on Wolver form earlier in the month, and Subtle Knife, denied a clear run behind her at Newmarket in October, is 21lb better.
Odds-on favourites make the best lays (you lose very little should you be wrong), if you can find a good case against them, and I shall be able to get good place money from massive offers about my pair in the same race.
Maiden Approach is 15.0 this morning and Subtle Knife 23.0, as I write. Far, far too big on those weights turnarounds.
DAQMAN BETS (staked 1 to 9; banker 10)
BANKER: BET 10pts win (nap) STEAL THE SCENE (1.35 Lingfield)
BET 8pts win BYRON FLYER (1.00 Lingfield); if lose 5pts win PERCELLA (2.10 Lingfield), plus 1pt win double the two
BET 6pts win DEFINITELY BETTER (1.45 Musselburgh) plus 2pts win (savers) on each STORMING STRUMPET (2.20) and ON THE CASE (3.30), also at Musselburgh
DOUBLE WHAMMY: LAY 5pts OAKLEY GIRL, and 1pt win and 2pts place on each MAIDEN APPROACH and SUBLTE KNIFE (5.40 Kempton)
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